What Wins NFL Games? (or The Myth of Power Running)

* Passing is more important to winning than running.

-Tell that to the Ravens after today and after they show you their SB ring.

* Offense is more important than defense.

-I’ve seen teams with less than proficient offenses win, I’ve never seen a team with a less than outstanding “D” win

* The critical measure of an offense or defense is points (preferably net points), not yards.

-“Hello, you play to win the game”

* Interceptions and sacks are important.

-As important as fumbles and penalties

* Fumbles and penalties are random events that are statistically unimportant.

-Did you mention this to the Bengals yesterday? If you did, good!

* Special-teams play is largely irrelevant to winning.

-I think Ligashesky used that line on Mike Tomlin. I don’t think it helped him any.

Thanks for that great statistical analysis, but, Statistics Can Hide a Multitude of Sins.
While I’m dealing with a small sample size (only 4 games) it should be noted that those teams advancing in the playoffs ran the ball and some ran well. That is, those teams that ran much better than their opponents won by 19 points. Dallas and Baltimore both ran more than 100 yards better than Philly and New England. In point of fact the running game of Baltimore was so much better than the Pats that it hid the miserable passing performance of unibrow and because of that they were able to beat an excellent passing team and quarterback quite handily.
I’m not disputing any statistics but it should be evident that if BA had a good running game e.g. a fullback (running and blocking) plus a decent offensive line (both pass and run blocking) and also utilized them,we would probably be in the playoffs.
BA will probably never go back to the run heavy offense of the past (just like the rest of the NFL), but the ability to run would really set up the pass.
Thanks for letting me vent my spleen!

How to Lie with Statistics.

http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/How_to_Lie_with_Statistics

If these stats were for the last 4-5 years, I would say ok. But one year does not prove anything. Look, are the Bungles a dominent team? Are the Saints unbeatable? If Peyton Manning would get hurt, how good would the Colts be? If Curt Warner retires, will the Cards make the playoffs next year relying on Leinhart and a wide open passing game. A running game may be enough. You have to be able to run and pass, play defense and have solid special teams.

and that is, at the end of the game, in order to win you need at least 1 more point on the scoreboard than your opponent. And that correlation to wins is 100%. How you acquire those points is irrelevant.

Good work on the stats Steelin, I think your data does show something, but it’s probably not what you think it showed.

First off, I think many if not most of us on this board have at least played the game at some level. So, we should all know that it’s a silly statement to say that “offence is more important than defense,” or that “special teams is largely irrelevant to winning”. Everything each unit does on the field during the game is important to winning and losing, and what each of the 11 players on the field does is important. Any coach would tell you the most important thing is execution. The team that plays better usually wins.

Let’s take the Raider game as an example, our O (particularly passing game) did their part and put us in a position to win the game. However, the D allowed a poor passing team to march down the field and score the winning TD. It was poor execution on the part of our D that
caused that loss. Offence and Defense are equally important, if you can’t stop a team from scoring when you need to, then you aren’t going to win.

Special Teams play is always important because it involves a change of possesion. You are either punting or kicking off the ball to the other team (reliquishing possesion) or receiving it (acquiring possesion). If you do your part poorly it can result in poor field position (either way) or worse case points for the other team. Same goes for FG kicking, you are either going to score points or you are going to relinquish the ball to the other team…worst case being they block it and return for a TD. How many times in the NFL have we seen a missed FG cost a team a game? I’m sure there are plenty (more than 3%).

As for fumbles, depending on their timing, they can be critically important…just ask Aaron Rodgers about his in OT in the Ariz game. Same thing goes for penalties, remember what Ryan Mundy did against the Raiders that gave them 1st and goal at the 1.

Going back to what I had eluded to earlier, I do think Steelin did uncover something that maybe we already knew…and that is…passing has become more prominent in the NFL now more than ever. That’s mainly due to the rules that have evolved to protect the QB at almost all costs. Included in that is what’s not considered holding these days…just ask James Harrison. On the flip side, receivers can’t be touched beyond 5 yards and helmet-to-helmet contact penalties eliminates some of the intimidation from DBs. The NFLs competition committee has openly tried to make the game more high scoring to attract the more casual audience who are more likely to tune in for a Manning/Brady or Rodgers/Warner shootout than a Steeler/Raven grind-it-out 13-10 game.

So, teams with the top QBs are going to have an advantage in terms of execution in the passing game, and may be better able to take advantage of the rules. On the flip side, some of the teams that Steelin cites that had good running games but weren’t winners (Titans, Panthers, Jags, Chiefs, Rams) are teams that had below avg. QBs and premier RBs (C. Johnson, D.Williams, Jones-Drew, S.Jackson), so naturally they would rely more on where their talent is. The Chiefs got good production from their RBs as well.

In summation, as it pertains to our beloved Steelers, we have both a great QB and a very good RB, so we should be able to win either way (passing or running). However, the real key to returning to SB form is improving the D and STs which are equally important to winning.

That does not show up in Stats lets look at the 3rd and 4th quarter with the Steelers up by 10 and Bettis in the backfield what play does the defense expect… a run of course and that is what they get and yet they can not stop the Steelers from marching down the field chewing up clock even if we stall at mid field then pin them deep we have imposed our will on them anything more than 3 and out is demoralizing and a sense of panic starts creeping into the offense that is only down by 10 half way through the 3rd quarter. Teams no longer feel like they can play their game plan they go into we have to make something happen mode take deep drops and try to make big plays which allows our defense to dominate. The QB stands in the pocket too long trying to get a receiver open for the 40 yard pass and ends up getting sacked or forcing the ball for a pick. Not to mention we have drafted our o-line and defensive players based on that style of offense.

I think Ben is an Elite QB can make things happen can make all the throws worth every penny he makes for his leadership and skills, however I do not think just because we are paying him 100 million that we have to get 40 passes a game out of him just because of it. I liked it better in the 05 season where we came out throwing put up a lead and then pounded the ball where a win meant that Ben only threw 25 passes not because he wasn’t capable of winning the game throwing more but because that was all he needed to throw. Protect that investment If the game is on the line Ben is THE MAN why not extend his career by letting him do what he needs to win the game that is what won us 2 SB’s with Ben it’s a team sport do not put all our eggs in one basket make teams fear our running game again and help to keep ben’s jersey clean.