Steelers 2009 Rankings (or Why the Defense Doesn't Suck)

by Steelin on Jan 13, 2010 12:51 AM EST

In Part 1 of this post, I analyzed various statistical metrics from the 2009 NFL season to determine which has the best correlation to winning. Here, I provide the Steelers' ranking (1-32) among all NFL teams for the most important metrics. This data should help determine where things went wrong and how to fix them.

Steelers Rank	Offense Metric	Correlation to Wins
12	Points Scored	88%
14	Net Offensive Pts	90%
7	Yards Gained	77%
7	Yards per Pass Att	83%
15	Yards per Rush Att	0%
17	3rd Down % Made	64%
11	Red Zone Avg Pts	61%
19	Interceptions	64%
31	Sacks Allowed	44%

The Steelers offense ranked #7 in yards gained but only #14 in net offensive points. (For net points, I have subtracted points scored by the defense and special teams. I also subtracted points scored by the other team when the offense was on the field, i.e. pick-six and fumble returns.) As the correlations show, net points is the most important metric, and in this light, the Steelers offense is entirely mediocre.

Why the big difference between yards and points? The common criticism is red-zone problems, but the Steelers offense actually ranked better (#11) in red-zone scoring than overall scoring. The bigger problems were drive-killing sacks and interceptions. Interceptions can also turn into points for the other team. Another weakness is third-down conversions.

Steelers Rank	Defense Metric	Correlation to Wins
12	Points Allowed	68%
5	Net Defensive Pts	75%
5	Yards Allowed	56%
8	Yards per Pass Att	60%
5	Yards per Rush Att	34%
28	3rd Down %	28%
1	Red Zone Avg Pts	36%
12	Defensive Hog Index	48%
25	Interceptions	41%
2	Sacks	41%

The often criticized Steelers defense ranked #5 in both yards allowed and net defensive points. The big difference between points allowed and net points is due to the 8 TDs (4 KR, 2 INT, 2 FR) that were scored when the defense was not on the field. Net points also credits the defense for the 3 TDs that it scored.

The defense was very weak on third downs, leading to some long drives, but following a bend-dont-break philosophy, it stiffened in the red zone, frequently holding to opponent to a FG or no points at all. The team's ferocious pass rush (#2 in sacks) often forced teams back out of FG range, particularly at Heinz Field. One shortcoming was a lack of interceptions, which not only stop the other team but can give the offense better field position.

Steelers Rank	Special Teams Metric	Correlation to Wins
8	Kickoff Return Avg	5%
18	Punt Return Avg	1%
32	Net Kickoff Avg	15%
20	Net Punting Avg	-27%
32	Net KR/PR TDs	3%
9	Field-Goal Percentage	4%

The Steelers' special teams ranged from mediocre (#18 in punt returns) to horrendous (dead last in TDs). The one exception was kickoff returns, as Stefan Logan helped the team finish #8 in this area. Fortunately, special-teams play has little correlation to winning. The highest correlation is for net kickoff average, a statistic that I computed to measure the opponent's average starting point after a kickoff. Due to Jeff Reed's short kickoffs and poor coverage, the Steelers ranked last in this metric.

In summary, the Steelers offense featured a 4,000-yard passer, two 1,000-yard receivers, and a 1,000-yard rusher, but it ranked only #14 in net points. Despite churning out yards, the offense could not sustain drives due to too many sacks and interceptions. Third-down conversions were occasionally problematic. The much-maligned defense, however, ranked #5 in both yards and net defensive points. It gave up the fewest points per red zone attempt in the league and ranked #2 in sacks. The defense was weaker (but still respectable) against the pass than the run, and a key shortcoming was lack of interceptions.

Improvements for 2010

Many of the Steelers' offensive problems could be improved by better coaching and QB play. Ben needs to be coached to throw the ball away rather than making a risky pass that can be intercepted. Also, he should throw the ball away to avoid sacks. Interestingly, the Steelers ranked #16 in QB hits but only #31 in sacks allowed. This indicates that Ben is not facing a lot of rushers, but when he does, he often takes the sack rather than throwing the ball away and just taking a hit. (The Patriots, in contrast, rank #12 in QB hits but #3 in sacks.) A better offensive line, however, would help reduce the number of sacks and could also improve conversions on third-and-short.

On defense, the Steelers fell from #1 in 2008 to #5 in 2009, not bad considering the injuries to Troy Polamalu and Aaron Smith, two of the defense's most important players. Both are slated to return in 2010, which should keep the unit among the best in the NFL. Polamalu, in particular, will address the shortcomings in pass coverage and lack of interceptions.

Thus, I would argue that the Steelers should draft an offensive lineman in the first round of the 2010 draft. The o-line has several competent players but needs another strong talent to anchor the right side. The defense is already playoff-caliber, but the team must address the possible loss of safety Ryan Clark and NT Casey Hampton. I would draft a safety in the second round, as the 2010 draft is deep in safeties, and look for a nose tackle in the third round or below, as there is no point in wasting a high draft choice on a two-down player whose primary goal is to stop the run. Statistically speaking, the focus should be on pass defense, not run defense.

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Comments

really good point

about the NT.. if he is big, athletic and dependable.. then he is gonna measure up to be a decent NT. We can find a gem out there if needed.

by MSsteele on Jan 13, 2010 1:53 AM EST reply actions

Ra'shon "Sunny" Harris is almost as big (fat) as Snack

and he’s 4" taller, and he’s already on the team.

"OOH! A piece of candy. OOH! A piece of candy."
-James Woods

by Steel Spike on Jan 13, 2010 2:01 AM EST up reply actions

A defense that can't stop the Oakland Raiders is not playoff caliber.

by StoneColdSteel on Jan 13, 2010 2:28 AM EST reply actions

Let's take a look at that

The Raiders game is often cited as evidence that our offense is fine and our defense needs improvement. After all, the defense gave up three touchdowns in the fourth quarter. But for the first three quarters, the Steelers defense had been staunch, letting up only 6 points. The offense, as usual, had racked up lots of yards but had scored only 10 points. Why?

In the first quarter, the Steelers got to the Oakland 5 but failed to convert both 3rd-and-1 and 4th-and-1, getting no points.

In the second quarter, the Steelers drove to the Oakland 16, but Ben threw an interception to end the drive with no points.

In the third quarter, the Steelers made it to the Oakland 25, but Ben took a sack on 3rd-and-6 to push the ball back to the 34. Coach Tomlin gets a brain cramp and calls for a 53-yard FG attempt, which Reed misses, giving the Raiders, trailing only 10-6, both good field position and good momentum.

This is the 2009 Steelers offense in microcosm: too many interceptions, drive-killing sacks, and failures on 3rd-and-short. If the offense executes better, the score is 24-6 going into the fourth quarter and nothing the defense does matters. The return of Troy Polamalu will fix most of the defense’s problems. How do we fix the offense’s problems?

by Steelin on Jan 13, 2010 11:55 AM EST up reply actions 1 recs

Very good points

Its points to the idea that I’ve been saying we could have went to the playoffs this year despite the defense, we have enough talent on offense to do so.

Steelers football is 60 mins.

by tannofsteel84 on Jan 13, 2010 3:28 PM EST up reply actions

also

tomlin only has a brain cramp cause reed missed it, if he makes it no one says anything about it, yea no one has made a kick that long at steelers but there is a first time for everything. so you never know i’m pretty sure though tomlin was sick of not getting points.

Steelers football is 60 mins.

by tannofsteel84 on Jan 13, 2010 3:45 PM EST up reply actions

Situational Football

The offense is always blamed for situational football, but the Raiders game is an example of defensive situational football. Crunch time when the game matters, with the odds in your favor. Even after the Raiders scored to take the lead, the offense responded twice in the fourth quarter with touchdowns. The Raiders kept answering when the game was on the line. The Steelers also had the odd point in their favor, meaning they kept taking the lead by four and pressuring the Raiders to answer with seven instead of three. The last time it happened, I think the Raiders went 88-some yards with the game absolutely on the line.

Same thing in Kansas City. Midway through the fourth, the offense, despite what happened up until then, scored a fourth-quarter touchdown with eight and a half minutes to take a 7-point lead. The Chiefs go 91 yards I believe. Against Baltimore it was total desperation with 3rd and 22 and they convert back-to-back for 61 yards. Against Cincinnati it came down to fourth and 10.

Football games come down to “situations” where, with the odds heavily in your favor, you must respond. We’re not talking about a fourth and two or three, offense or defense, where we just lost coin flips. We’re talking about having the opponent in total desperation, time and time again, and not succeeding. Situational football is just as important on defense as it is on offense.

How do we fix the offense’s problems? Hopefully we have taken a big step with a new line coach, followed by a personnel change or two. Guys like Hills and Urbik, at least one of them, must step up and justify their draft positions. Guys like Stapleton and Foster, at least one of them, must get to the next level. Then we need the new coach to get them to work in unison so that collectively they equal greater than their individual parts.

Thoughtful discussion with a sense of history

by maryrose on Jan 14, 2010 4:18 PM EST up reply actions

Interesting Stats...

Hey Steelin, good work on the stats, and while I disagree with many of your generalizations based on these stats (as I did in your first post). I do agree with you on a couple of things…

1. I do think the Steelers need to get better at stopping the pass. Actually, I think that should probably be their major focus in the offseason, since it was their downfall for most of the season. Poor secondary play resulted in too many blown leads (particularly in the 4th QTR). Getting a healthy Troy back will help significantly, but they still need better play from the rest of the secondary.

2. I totally agree with Ben throwing the ball away more often to avoid sacks and (even worse) INTs. He does manage to shake off would be sackers (I bet more than any other QB) and make plays downfield, but he does take too many sacks and at times they have been costly when they take the team out of FG range.

3. A better offensive line would certainly help indeed. Actually, OL play can often determine the outcome of a game. As the old saying goes, “the game is won or lost in the trenches.” Dominant OL play (both in run and pass blocking) means the offensive can dictate what it wants to do…or “impose its will” as the Emporer Chas Noll used to say. The opposite is true with poor OL play. The D is then in control and that often results in sacks, fumbles, inc. passes, and INTs. The Steelers from the 70s on up to the mid-2000s had a legacy of great lineman, and dominant OL play. Right now, that’s really not the case.

One thing I’d be interested in seeing, if you can find this stat is…our Opponents avg. starting field position after kickoffs. Giving teams good field position right after we score is a sure fire way to blow a lead. It also masks our poor pass defense a bit in that teams don’t have to travel as far for a score. (i.e. if a team starts at their 40, they only have to go 60 yds for the TD rather than 80 if they start at their 20…so in this example our D would rank higher in yds. allowed (60 vs. 80) vs. another team, yet we both gave up TDs). That’s why yards allowed can be misleading when ranking a D.

One thing to consider about the D and LeBeau’s 3-4 Firezone, is that it was designed to reduce the risk of the “big play” while still applying pressure with the blitz (along with disguising where the blitz is coming from). The pressure is supposed to create sacks or INTs. It also is a good alignment for stopping the run if the NT can occupy the C and the playside G allowing an ILB to be free to flow to the ball carrier and make the tackle.

If stopping the pass is the most critical as you mention, it’s not out of the ? that Tomlin may consider making the switch to the 4-3 Tampa 2 if he thinks he can get enough pressure from 4 DL. If we were to upgrade the FS, meaning getting someone better in coverage than Clark, we could probably get by with Ike and the winner of Gay/Burnett/Lewis at CB (although that’s still scary). However, we’d need to get an MLB who can cover anyone coming over the middle.

by Psycho Kuz on Jan 13, 2010 2:36 AM EST reply actions

Opponents field position after kickoffs

The stat that I show “net kickoff average” is exactly that, as best I can compute. I started at the 30-yard line, added average kickoff length, subtracted average KR return, and adjusted for touchbacks and out-of-bounds kickoffs. The Steelers rank dead last in this metric, with opponents starting at the 32.8 yardline, versus a league average of 26.5.

Still, I am not sure that a 6-yard difference is that significant. Although I would certainly advocate making adjustments in our special-teams coverage, I would not recommend paying big money to Steven Gotkowski just to watch him boom kickoffs into the end zone.

by Steelin on Jan 13, 2010 11:38 AM EST up reply actions

Eight times after kickoffs and punts opponents field position was in our end zone...

And those were times the defense gave up zero yards and didn’t have to take the field.

I would kill everyone in this room for a drop of sweet beer.
- Homer J. Simpson

by Homer J. on Jan 13, 2010 12:52 PM EST up reply actions

Good point

Actually, it was four times on kickoffs and none on punts (the other four TD returns were from interceptions and fumbles). But I think those four long kickoff returns increase the average KR return, when as you point out, the defense didn’t have to go back onto the field. So the actual average starting point for the opponent after kickoff would be less than 32.8 yardline. On the other hand, the “net kickoff average” metric is a better reflection of the poor kick coverage that lead to the four KR TDs.

by Steelin on Jan 13, 2010 4:19 PM EST up reply actions

steelin, i really think you believe in statistics too much

i dont need stats to tell me that our defense gave up multiple games that shouldve been 14 point wins in the 4th quarter (often against REALLY bad teams)

by hasay on Jan 13, 2010 5:09 AM EST reply actions

Which games were those?

The Steelers’ defensive failings were magnified because they tended to come in the fourth quarter. The last guy to screw up always gets the blame. But the offense’s failings were just as egregious, if not more.

In the first Bengals loss, the defense held the Bengals to 120 yards and 3 points over the first three quarters, but Cincinnati was still in the game at 20-9 due to Ben throwing a pick-six. In the fourth quarter, instead of helping to run out the clock, the offense gained only 19 yards on two drives. Then, of course, there was the famous Limas Sweed TD drop.

In the Chiefs loss, the defense gave up only two TDs. After Ben’s second interception of the day was returned to the Pittsburgh 8, the defense stoned the Chiefs and held them to a FG. The game would not have gone to overtime if the special teams had not given up a kickoff-return TD to start the game. In overtime, the offense got the ball first but failed to score.

In the Raiders loss, as I posted above, the offense had numerous chances to put the game away before the fourth quarter.

In our other losses, we were never ahead by more than 3 points.

by Steelin on Jan 13, 2010 12:24 PM EST up reply actions

MUST STOP THE RUN!!

Stop the run first! We play in a division that has run heavy offenses..Remember, as MT said “we must win the divisional games first!” 2-4 in our division MUST change! We have CB from the bengals and RR, Magahee and Mclain form the Ravens and Harrison emerging from the Browns. Think we need run stuffers first! NT, ILB, S..sign a CB free agent and away we go!

by nycsteelerfan on Jan 13, 2010 8:44 AM EST reply actions

agree

but a good CB free agent is going to cost you, the only way we get a decent one is through the draft

Steelers football is 60 mins.

by tannofsteel84 on Jan 13, 2010 9:52 AM EST up reply actions

true too...

But, a CB won’t start anyway, so that won’t help! How how Bowdens or Hobbs? They can’t be too expensive..

by nycsteelerfan on Jan 13, 2010 1:33 PM EST reply actions

plus..

Hampton and FWP will be gone, so there will be some money left over..

by nycsteelerfan on Jan 13, 2010 1:34 PM EST reply actions

If they didn't pay

Rod Woodson – which even the steelers will admit was a mistake – what makes you think they gonna pay some random CB?

Steelers football is 60 mins.

by tannofsteel84 on Jan 13, 2010 3:42 PM EST up reply actions

Because

the only stupid mistake, is the one you make more than once.

"OOH! A piece of candy. OOH! A piece of candy."
-James Woods

by Steel Spike on Jan 13, 2010 4:04 PM EST up reply actions

that was after the kneee surgery..

That’s why they didn’t re-sign him. He switched to saftey at that point in his career..

by nycsteelerfan on Jan 13, 2010 5:20 PM EST up reply actions

doesn't justify it

I doubt they are going to pay for a decent corner, they’ll look for some back-up who is cheap but they will get their starters from the draft 95% of the time.

Steelers football is 60 mins.

by tannofsteel84 on Jan 14, 2010 10:02 AM EST up reply actions

he actually played corner for the 49ers the following season or two, then switched to safety with Balt and Oak…which by that time, was completely necessary.

breathe in deep feel your heart beat, just to know that life's worth livin'. feel your feet on the earth, better love it while it's still here spinnin'.

by NoCal-SteelCity on Jan 14, 2010 6:45 PM EST up reply actions

The money saved from Hampton and FWP

is needed to extend Holmes, Woodley, and Ike. Unless you want to dump those guys, you can’t go spending that money on a free agent starter at CB or anywhere else.

by Steelin on Jan 13, 2010 4:25 PM EST up reply actions