So What Happened?
Many thanks to RickVa for this fine submission. He's always been one of the site's great story tellers and perspectives about the short and long run alike. Cheers. -Blitz-
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Chuck Noll dispensed a lot of wisdom during his tenure as coach of the Steelers. One of my favorites: when things are going well it may not be as good as it appears. Conversely, when things go badly it usually is not as awful as it seems. I think this is the perfect description of Steeler Football 2008 and 2009. The season has ended in disappointment and not a small amount of confusion. The time of scapegoating, recriminations and inquisition has begun. If you look carefully, you can see the glow of the torches and the outline of pitchforks on the horizon. Somebody's got to go in such a situation, heads must roll. That's the nature of the business. Of course, there is no shortage of opinions as to who must be sacrificed. I know I have my favorites. However, you may have noticed that a lot of people; fans, players, coaches and journalists are less than certain as to what factors led to this year's collapse, at least for the public record. This is an issue that I have been struggling with since the Chicago game in September. I came away with two conclusions which I want to share with the community. First, the main problem has to do with systems and how they interact. In other words, its not the Offense or the Defense, but how they complement each other as well as special teams. Its also less about individual players but how players are positioned to succeed or fail. Second, I realized that pretty much everything that we need to know about the '09 Steelers was on display during last year's Super Bowl.
The Super Bowl began the way so many of the games did this year. It seemed as if the Cardinals didn't belong on the same field. The offense was irresistable, the defense immovable. But already the first signs of trouble are apparent. In spite of steamrolling inside the five yard line on both early drives the Steelers only have 10 points to show for it. On the other side of the ball I believe Phoenix was held to something like five offensive plays in the first quarter. In the second quarter the Steelers O disappears as the Cardinals O begins to get its act together and scores a touchdown. A tipped pass results in an interception deep in Steeler territory. With 18 seconds left the Cardinals have the ball on the Steelers one yard line. Only an exceptional play by James Harrison helps the Steelers avoid a halftime scenario where Pittsburgh trails by four points or in the best case is tied. Instead, Pittsburgh carries a shaky ten point lead into the half.
The defense contains Phoenix through the 3rd quarter. The offense manages a drive to within the five yard line, but cannot score a touchdown, even though a penalty gives them double the downs to get into the endzone. The Steelers must settle for a field goal. 20 - 7, as opposed to (potentially) 28 - 7. Put another way, the Cardinals enter the 4th quarter needing two scores to win, as opposed to needing three scores to force overtime. For three quarters the Steelers defense holds the Cardinals O to a 7 -7 tie. They receive precious little help from an offense that is essentially like an undisciplined baseball slugger; they either connect for a homerun or they strike out, being unhelpful in shortening the game (time) or the lengthening the field. Fourteen points is not too much to ask of a high powered Cardinal offense with plenty of time and unchallenging field position and they don't disappoint. The Pittsburgh O helpfully kicks in a safety for good measure.
The heroics of Ben and Santonio salvage the situation. The Steelers claim their 6th Lombardi, everyone goes home stressed but happy. But if they had lost...If they had lost it would have the same 'feel' as this year's losses to the Bears, Bengals, Chiefs, etc. A robust start that cannot be maintained over four quarters, an inability to finish teams. A defense that can't seem to stop anyone over the long run combined with an offense that can produce the occasional 'splash' play but does not have the capacity to either bury or demoralize an opponent (like they demoralized and buried the Chargers in the divisional playoff). A successful team is put together in such a way that every segment of the team (offense, defense, special teams) contributes to the effort. On defense, for example, in addition to the direct efforts of the defensive unit, offense and special teams play keep away, help to lengthen the field, to reduce the opportunities and increase the degree of difficulty involved in scoring. Just like the defense will generate offense by forcing high risk play calling that results in turnovers (Think about Ike Taylor's pick late in Sunday's game. This followed a long time consuming drive by the offense featuring the running of the 'washed up" Willie Parker).
Or if you really want to throw some gasoline on the fire, consider a playoff game we played in the early part of the past decade against the Browns. The Browns jumped to an early lead, but were caught and passed by the Steelers late in the fourth quarter. The Browns offensive coordinator was Bruce Arians.
We managed to win playing this type of ball in 2008. We fell on our faces playing it in 2009. I don't want to go too deep into what has been very strongly and effectively debated by Maryrose, tan of steel and others. But a few things could bear more emphasis.
The arguments made to defend Arians are for the most part valid. For entertainment purposes the NFL favors a game that emphasizes the pass and have legislated its product in such a matter that such an approach is more likely to succeed. Nor can you expect a team with a 100 million dollar asset at QB and a stable of receivers, including two Super Bowl MVPs to not be emphasized. But Dallas has proven this year that you can have a team that excels in both areas. I believe that for Arians approach to succeed his system needs to be complemented with a strong running game. In this sense I am not in agreement with the traditionalists who insist that Steelers Football must be run first and/or run only. My guess is that this is not the issue that so riles so many in the Nation. Arians does not just prefer the pass, he is also (IMHO) contemptuous of the run. Too many other sets of eyes have seen the same thing.
I don't know BA's mind or heart, but it looks to me that he sets out on occasion to sabotage the running game. When some of these poorly timed and conceived plays fail, confidence in the run is undermined and provides an excuse to abandon running altogether. This approach which not only undermines folk like Willie Parker (one wonders what kind of numbers could have been generated if he and Mendenhall had doubled their carries against Miami) and annoys the sensibilities of Steeler traditionalists. It also goes a considerable distance in explaining some of the 4th quarter collapses of our defense as well. Running the ball fatigues the defense like nothing else. Running saps the confidence of the defense like nothing else, 'cause if you can't stop the run you really can't stop anything and everyone knows it. Perhaps most importantly running uses up time. In football time is oxygen. Conversely, while their D wilts, ours rests. While time dwindles, deprives the opponent of offensive options and panic begins to sow its seeds for them, our defense has an improved capability to create chaos and mistakes. The short passing attack that is almost always effective against the Steelers isn't available to an opponent because they don't have enough time for such a methodical approach. They don't have to cover that space and can place their resources either up front creating a better blitz or back creating better deep coverage. Want to see the proof? Divisional playoff last year against a powerful Charger offense. Or this year against the Vikings. Or the last four minutes against the Dolphins. The knife cuts both ways. Not only did the Cardinals move the ball effectively in the 4th of SB 43, the D committed two personal fouls (incredible lack of composure considering the stakes).
Having trouble scoring points in the red zone? Wide open passing attacks experience increased difficulty as the field shrinks (Duh!). Hines, Heath and Santonio will be more successful inside the ten if the defense has to consider Rashard, Willie and Mewelde as well. And a Carey Davis, or any legitimate fullback, creates even more difficulty than Spaeth or Johnson who offer zero threat as runners.
Do I have to mention the level of vulnerability this approach creates for Ben? Something for everyone to consider: we will look back at 2009 and remember it as the year that the NFL dramatically changed its attitude toward concussions. There is enough information available about the long term effects now that teams and the league will be increasingly vulnerable to devastating lawsuits and increased public outcry unless the tightening of criteria for play continues and even increases. Ben is a big red flag because he's already suffered a significant head injury that is not football related. Both he and BA better get smart about this. Otherwise he ends up like Troy Aikman or Steve Young only with a lot more tread on his tires.
I would be less inclined to put the Steelers difficulties on individuals that just got old or incompetent all of the sudden. MR's recommendations for adjustments in BA's approach seem quite reasonable. But if he is too arrogant and narcissistic to consider or go along with this (I won't get into the power struggle issues for now), then someone needs to have a heart to heart with LeBeau and whomever the next special teams guy will be and have them to plan accordingly.
I would keep FWP for a whole lot of reasons, one being that he has probably been on the money incomplaining about how he has been utilized...Keep Casey unless you can get that kid from Nebraska...Farrior deliberately gained about 20 pounds this year. Maybe he needs to take them back off to help his pass coverage...Draft or sign some fullbacks...The movement to get younger and deeper on O-Line and D-Line should continue. I like Hartwig but I think he may be too small to be effective over time. A competition with Stapleton should benefit the team.
Don't panic. Things are not as bad as they appear.
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Comments
"Everyone goes home stressed but happy"
well isn’t that the truth. Your post is a work of art.
In particular, the red flag waving above Ben’s head worries me. His longevity is in question if he continues at this rate of concussions. If nothing else makes an OC sit up and take notice that “hm. Maybe we should consider running the ball?” the thought of Ben on the sidelines certainly should.
I’m with you on FWP. I truly believe there’s a lot more advantage and gain to keeping him. I’m not ready to see him go.
We’ve been down this very road before, but as one sportscaster noted; The Steelers don’t rebuild. They reload.
We’re not out of ammo, just need a few more rounds to fill the clip.
When the tailgate drops, the BS stops. Shut up and play!
by 1BlkGldFan on Jan 13, 2010 7:57 AM EST reply actions 0 recs
Excellent wording on the running game. It’s not because it puts up points better, but it keeps your defense rested.
by Max Powers on Jan 13, 2010 8:02 AM EST reply actions 0 recs
I think we should start saying good things about Arians
There are rumors that the Raiders seem to have targetted him for the job. If Al Davis reads all teh negativity about BA then he won’t offer him the job.
"He had no teeth, and he was slobbering all over himself. I'm thinking, 'You can have your money back, just get me out of here. Let me go be an accountant." I can't tell you how badly I wanted out of there."
- Denver rookie QB John Elway, on Jack Lambert, after Lambert and the Steelers knocked Elway out of his first game as a pro (1983).
by Han on Jan 13, 2010 9:14 AM EST reply actions 0 recs
Please let that happen!
I could see why Al Davis would like him. He loves to go deep.
For ideas on statistical analyses, email me at wolfpacksteelersfan@gmail.com.
by WolfpackSteelersFan on Jan 13, 2010 9:30 AM EST up reply actions 0 recs
Offensive line
Excellent pass blocking, iffy run blocking and bad play calling. I wrote about Alan Faneca over on my blog and I think he’s the kind of guy the Steelers are missing. I hate questioning their personnel moves, as they are usually right, but the guys up front are not getting it done on running downs.
I love it when we throw – its exciting, but it shouldn’t be happening on 9 out of 10 downs. Arians does need to go.
Great post.
by billrob23 on Jan 13, 2010 9:33 AM EST reply actions 0 recs
Excellent post!
Great job, RickVa. Although I did write an article on why I thought Arians should go, I’m really not overly worried about the team next year. I think that they should rebound pretty well, actually. They just lost many of the close games that they would have won in 2008. It happens in football.
For ideas on statistical analyses, email me at wolfpacksteelersfan@gmail.com.
by WolfpackSteelersFan on Jan 13, 2010 9:33 AM EST reply actions 0 recs
Anyone know what the
pass/run ratio was last year?
"OOH! A piece of candy. OOH! A piece of candy."
-James Woods
by SteelFever on Jan 13, 2010 11:03 AM EST up reply actions 0 recs
According to
the Steelers Pro-Football-Reference 2009 page:
428 runs
536 passes
50 sacks
42% run to 58% pass (or sack)
For ideas on statistical analyses, email me at wolfpacksteelersfan@gmail.com.
by WolfpackSteelersFan on Jan 13, 2010 12:19 PM EST up reply actions 0 recs
Sorry, I meant '08
"OOH! A piece of candy. OOH! A piece of candy."
-James Woods
by SteelFever on Jan 13, 2010 2:18 PM EST up reply actions 0 recs
2008
460 runs
506 passes
49 sacks
45% run to 55% pass (or sack)
Even less commitment to the run in ’09, when it was working better.
For ideas on statistical analyses, email me at wolfpacksteelersfan@gmail.com.
by WolfpackSteelersFan on Jan 13, 2010 7:23 PM EST up reply actions 0 recs
Well, that certainly is annoying...
"OOH! A piece of candy. OOH! A piece of candy."
-James Woods
by SteelFever on Jan 14, 2010 11:58 PM EST up reply actions 0 recs
I'm now afriad that with Arians still around, that '10 is just going to be a mix of '08 and '09.
Everything said in this eloquent post really nails it home: our weakness was discovered in the superbowl last year, and until we get a solid running game, I don’t see how we can win it out short of lucky plays here and there. Lucky plays didn’t go well for us this year. I think its time to abandon the lets-hope-the-lucky-plays-go-our-way philosophy that quietly solidified ever since the 4th quarter of the SB last year.
by SteelersVT on Jan 13, 2010 9:54 AM EST reply actions 0 recs
Brilliant.Positively brilliant.
You are right on target, Rick, when you say that the Steelers’ embarrassment of riches at QB and wide receiver dictate that this team should go with its strength and feature the pass and not shy away from the long bomb.
But, as you point out, there are red zone problems when you don’t have a short yardage running game to go along with the passing game. And there are also those windy nights in Cleveland when you can’t throw 42 passes in a 42 mile per hour wind. If you do, you will get six points and lose.
The Steeler offense did not possess the football long enough this year. And that’s one of the reasons for the fourth quarter defensive collapses. And don’t hand me TOP numbers, because eight kick runbacks for touchdowns skewed those numbers to make the offense look better than it really was. When the other team takes 15 seconds to score a touchdown on a kick return, their TOP number will be low, but that’s no credit to either your offense or your defense.
During the Super Bowl run, Dick LeBeau was quoted as saying it was important for the offense to keep the defense off the field….so that the defense would still be fresh in the fourth quarter. That didn’t happen in ’09. They were short-handed, sucking wind, and had used up their bag of tricks midway through the fourth quarter of too many games. LeBeau had nothing new to dial up at the end, because his guys had shown everything by then.
Your comments on how the offensive and defensive unit must complement each other were spot on….along with the observation about not downplaying the running game. A team that shows an empty backfield on third and one has some serious problems in its offensive philosophy.
I would kill everyone in this room for a drop of sweet beer.
- Homer J. Simpson
by Homer J. on Jan 13, 2010 9:58 AM EST reply actions 0 recs
Grat write up RickVa...
Always liked your stuff man. You make a great case for and against Arians, and highlight exactly what it is that gets under the skin of Steelers fans everywhere. Too stubborn to change his tactics and too unwilling to listen to other opinions are, in my opinion, Arians two biggest faults. The latter of course is purely speculative, but I believe it’s true based on what I’ve seen and heard. I’ve defended Arians in some cases in the past, but I can’t deny the faults he has, and there are faults for sure. I’m with you 100%.
'I’ve learned to become a flat-liner. There’s a lot out there that’ll make your heart jump if you allow it."
-Coach Tomlin
by NYSteelersFan4 on Jan 13, 2010 10:01 AM EST reply actions 0 recs
sabotage?
That’s kinda the way i felt about arians and the running game this year. It seems like he would run sraight up the middle consistently for little or no yardage and when mendy would run right or very seldom left and get 10-15 or more yardage you wouldn’t see it again then he could say well we ran the ball and it didn’t work. He always ran it up the middle and unless you have a very good o-line or very bad (not statisticly obviously) defense it won’t work.I really believe that on some level he was doing his best to make the running game not work instead of calling plays to make it successful.
by billsteelcity on Jan 13, 2010 10:51 AM EST reply actions 0 recs
The only game
that did work in was the san diego game where it seemed like the o-line was just blowing people off the ball all the time and opening huge holes but thats the only game in recent memory when that has happened.
by billsteelcity on Jan 13, 2010 10:54 AM EST reply actions 0 recs
Wish I could rec twice
Great post. I was rewatching highlights of last year’s SB and also noticed (realized) how this year’s team was much the same – lose leads late & come up short inside the redzone. Maybe what tipped the scales last year was a healthy TP. Some of the plays this year that extended opponents’ drives or put points on the board simply would not have occurred with Troy out there this year…IMHO.
Bad Andy, Good Pizza.
by count'em_six on Jan 13, 2010 11:11 AM EST reply actions 0 recs
Great post!!!
Man, I love how intelligent you people are!
by Damnscot on Jan 13, 2010 11:56 AM EST reply actions 0 recs
Nice one!
I have read several things about B.A. keeping his job. From, “Tomlin stood up to the Rooneys, who wanted B.A gone”, to “Ben saved his job”. Whatever happend, there was definately some consideration given by the organization to fireing him. But, they didn’t. Why? That is the big question. You have to think that if they were considering firing him and they didn’t, B.A. was told what he had to change this year to keep his job. The question is: Can he do it?
Rick, you wrote about starting strong and then stalling and being overtaken late in the game. I think that is a huge failing for B.A., his inability to adjust his game to the other teams adjusment to his game plan. What I think we have seen is that when Ben goes sandlot on the other team late in the game, the Steelers offense has stepped out of the gameplan and that can’t be schemed or adjusted for. So, while there is a lot of writing about his inept play calling in critical situations and his dismal comittment to the run, you have nailed the third great failing of B.A. and that is his failure to adjust during a game to counteract opposing defenses adjustments. IMO this might be even more serious than the first two failings. I believe great coaches are the ones that are able to adjust during the game. B.A. falls woefully short in this category. This leads to the question of whether or not B.A. has the ability to develop a running game. Does he even know how? Because, now, I question his football intelligence.
I know it is just a very thin rumor, but here are some words you though you would never hear: lets hope Al Davis comes to the rescue.
by WyoFan on Jan 13, 2010 12:08 PM EST reply actions 0 recs
I've read many intelligent posts on BTSC
But this has to be up there at the very top of the list. Great job Rick, putting into articulate words what had been poorly expressed “gut feelings” for most of us. I can only hope a little elf slips a copy of this to MT, Art Duce, and the rest of the FO.
by MelBlunt on Jan 13, 2010 1:10 PM EST reply actions 0 recs
Am i the only one....
It seems like all the analyst are missing the point with Bruce Arians to me.I am a lifelong Steelers fan. Watching every game this year i have no problems passing more than running because we have better skill players at the WR and TE position to go with Big Ben vs our backfield. What irks me and why i think he needs to go is that we are always conservative when we need to close games out with the lead and i cant tell you how many times on 1rst and 2nd down we ran pretty much up the middle behind a poor offensive line. We ran a seriously predictable offense and that is why BA needs to go. Terrible play calling which i thought we had all of last year as well but we were fortunate enough to win the SB. Am i crazy, am i the only one who sees that. We witnessed New England winning 3 SB with a pass first offense and worse RB’s then we have. We should be able to spread the field and work teams over. Im curious to see what percentage of our offensive series were as follows: run on first down run on second down….. now 3rd and long, i cant tell you how many times i saw that… I feel like the analyst dont get it….. We are too pass heavy, please, thats where our best skill players are….We wont make the playoffs with this same crappy , predictable, conservative offense again next year.
by Mowheat on Jan 13, 2010 3:16 PM EST reply actions 0 recs
Thank you!
We wont make the playoffs with this same crappy , predictable, conservative offense again next year.
Glad someone gets it.
"OOH! A piece of candy. OOH! A piece of candy."
-James Woods
by SteelFever on Jan 13, 2010 4:16 PM EST up reply actions 0 recs
Ariens and the O
when the season started mendenhall was iffy at best. then he didn’t study his play book so he sat. Parker missed 5 games in 08 and was only good against the browns in week 16. Everyone got excited over Redman and Summers but they soon faded away.
The Oline was again a work inprogress. If I am ariens in August I have no choice ecept to devise a passing strategy. Ben loves it and what Ben loves he gets. Just like Peyton tom, drew and all the other elite qbs in the league. Lets hope the passing will come down to 55 % v run 45% in 2010. We need to draft a corner in the first. Safeties are a dime a dozon but good corners are hard to find
by royhobbs9 on Jan 13, 2010 3:19 PM EST reply actions 0 recs
"Situational Football?"
We hear a lot from Tomlin about the need to play situational football. Yet, every example you gave in a well written piece suggests the Steelers are not adjusting to the situation of the game. The red zone passes and sacks, the cold weather in Cleveland where the pass never got going are examples. I say it is the Head Coach who needs to lay down the law no matter what the offensive coordinator wants. It is time Tomlin gets in control of the team and follows his own words into action. I think that’s what has us all erked. The Steelers’ seem uncoordinated right now. Too many conflicting coaching approaches. Adjustments are not made in a game of situational play calling, both on defense and on offense. It is Tomlin’s team. Let’s see if he makes any changes.
by Peterg on Jan 13, 2010 3:20 PM EST reply actions 0 recs
One of the areas I did not address
is who is, in fact, in control? To what extent is it Colbert, Rooney (Art), Tomlin or (for this particular subject) Ben? One thing I do recall from the films of the SB was Tomlin’s exasperation on Pittsburgh’s second drive; “How about we get the ball in the endzone!” Are there limits to what MTcan do to implement his vision? I honestly don’t know, but a subject worth contemplating.
by RickVa on Jan 13, 2010 4:29 PM EST up reply actions 0 recs
Defense not physical
I really really liked this analysis. There were quotes this year from Mike Ditka and others about how the Steeers were always a physical team but not this year.
so I was thinking about the consequences of having less of a commitment to the run and how that affects the rest of the team. I really think that our defense becomes less physical.
1. Because they are more tired in the games than if we had a solid running game
2. Because practicing against the run makes our defensive more physical and better tacklers.
I can’t remember so many 4th quarter collapses by the defense and missed tackles in my life!
by DMSF on Jan 13, 2010 4:23 PM EST reply actions 0 recs
Good stuff rec'd
It killed me to watch them try to run up the middle this year. I do not think we have a bad O line. A few injuries/guys rotating in, effected their cohesive play. A line that plays good together can get away with being less talented individually, but there need to stay healthy. Sorta goes alone with your concept of putting people in the right position to succeed, only I like the way you worded it better… Running on the edges seemed to work better, indeed. I think one on the main reasons for this is the outstanding job our WR’s do in second level run blocking. It is one of the things I admire most about our offense as a whole, and falls under overall unselfishness. Makes me proud of these guys. The implacations of getting a viable FB that can both block to protect BB, and be a possible running threat, cannot be ignored.
"Now that I'm here, I don't want to just be here, I want to be here for a long time." Hines Ward, 1998 4th round draft pick.
by kick him in the head on Jan 13, 2010 4:58 PM EST reply actions 0 recs
full back
They have full backs use casey hampton, the oline can’t block period
only keomatu can block thats why we ran right all year he pulls like faneca did
by royhobbs9 on Jan 13, 2010 5:22 PM EST reply actions 0 recs
I had a dream
I dreamt I was Art II and had a meeting with messrs Tomlin, Arians and Colbert. Bruce was upset and asked politely for the floor, which I of course, gave him. Here is what he said, rather emotionally:
“I’ve heard the rumors about my job and if there is any truth to the consideration I will go quietly. But I deserve to be heard. When I was in Cleveland we had no offensive line. As soon as I left they overhauled with Steinbach, Thomas and those guys. My running back was William Green, a total bust. It was all we could do to put together an offense that made the playoffs. We were heavy underdogs in Pittsburgh and almost pulled off a huge upset, but Dennis Northcut dropped a beautiful pass in his hands that would have been the dagger. Still, I get blamed for that game for not being able to “close it out,” though we tried to run the ball and could not.
When I became the coordinator here in 07, we ran Willie like there was no tomorrow. In fact, we were third in a league of 32 in rushing attempts. THIRD. Parker was leading the league when he went down in game 15.
In 2008 we kept trying to run, and Mike, you saw it, we talked about it every week in films, our offensive line was horsebleep, and that Zierlein guy you gave me was horsebleep. We never recouped from the losses of Faneca, a healthy Marvel, even Hartings. And when we re-tooled there was no way Zierlein was the guy who was going to improve that unit. Still, we finished 9th in the league in rushing attempts, but the output did not equal the effort. We lead the freaking league in one-yard gains, over and over again. Wille would get stonewalled and every so often break outside to make broken-play yardage that made our rushing numbers look better than they were.
You saw it with me Mike. How many times did we watch the plays on film? How many times did you approve my game plan and how many times did we try to make the running game a prominent part of the offense? How many times did we get stonewalled? There was no consistency. There were gameplans where the blocking scheme worked and the opposition couldn’t stop us, and what did we do? WE RAN IT. And then there were games where we could not pick up two yards to save our lives, and you know it.
So yes, we have morphed into a team that doesn’t run very well. If you don’t run very well, you don’t run period. If you don’t run period, you don’t practice it enough. If you don’t practice it enough, you don’t have any confidence in it and if you have no confidence, you can’t do anything. It is a downward cycle. Mendenhall is a very good back, thank you Kevin, but what have we done with the line? Is Hills ready? Is Urbik ready? Can anyone GET them ready?
You go ahead and fire me if you want. I’ll take the half million and play golf for a year. But I’ll tell you this, and you all know it, I don’t care if you reincarnate Paul Brown and Sid Gilman, you will not run the ball if you don’t get your act together on that offensive line, both in terms of personnel and just as importantly, the guy who is coaching and teaching them.
And if you decide to make changes where they need to be made, we can get back to being 3rd in the league in rushing attempts. With the right people in the right combinations and with the right coaching in front of him, Mendy can lead the stinking league in yards.
I play the cards that are dealt to me. What I have now are great skill people with garbage in front of them. You know how to get a hold of me."
Folks, I am not going to banter this any more. I said enough over at Wolfpack’s post. But just answer one question. Can the above scenario possibly have any merit? Can it possibly make sense in anyone’s mind? Or am I living in total dimentia?
Thoughtful discussion with a sense of history
by maryrose on Jan 13, 2010 6:17 PM EST reply actions 0 recs
Run pass run
But I recall we were running against Cleveland, and gave it up. Why? No touchdowns against the last place defense whom we know.
We also see so many teams passing short to the running back, and they pick-up the extra couple of yards breaking tackles. Again, there were so many play situations where the offense went for the long ball (as you said) instead of controlling the ball and the tempo of the game. In other words, situational football requires a lot of different kinds of plays. High probability successes as the team moves the chains. Three and a third yards per play is all that is required. Not a touchdown every 3-5 offensive plays. Right now the Steelers lack that sophistication. Tomlin is not in charge?
by Peterg on Jan 13, 2010 7:18 PM EST up reply actions 0 recs
I think that would be a good argument for Arians to take
I just don’t think it addresses the fact that he seems to do a horrible job implementing an offense that can finish drives or avoid serious droughts in productivity. Why, for example, is the offense ranked 7th in yards gained 21st in the redzone?
Anyway, I guess that discussing it further isn’t really worthwhile at this point. He’s staying. Hopefully a new OL coach makes all the difference.
For ideas on statistical analyses, email me at wolfpacksteelersfan@gmail.com.
by WolfpackSteelersFan on Jan 13, 2010 7:53 PM EST up reply actions 0 recs
Very valid points
I agree with the basic premise of your latest post above – it is logical for the most part. I would offer this however to counter this argument:
1) Running the ball starts with an attitude and a commitment to run the ball, some how, some way. This has not been demonstrated for quite awhile.
2) Running the ball w/o a fullback can be more difficult – it depends on what type of plays you call and that depends on what plays are in your playbook. It’s his playbook and he knows the roster, it’s strengths and weaknesses. It’s his job to figure that out.
3) The fact that they have no FB is directly or indirectly attributable to their OC. If it isn’t, then some unknown entity is responsible. One would think that with a defensive minded head coach coming in, and few returning offensive assistants, Arians input into offensive scheme and resulting personnel choices must have occurred to some degree yes?
4) Their run game is unimaginative, contains little or no misdirection and has no alternative formations or schemes ala the Wildcat or anything else. The only exception was the Ravens game w/ Dixon and the funny thing was – they probably should have won that game too. Nothing like that was ever seen before or after.
5) His ‘trick’ plays are not well timed nor very effective.
6) Use of RBs in the pass game is minimal and predictable (3rd down and medium to long yardage). I understand not using FWP but MM and Mendenhall have shown ability there.
7) One of my pet peeves will hopefully illustrate a typical “Arianism” – It’s 3rd and 6 with a one back set, MM comes into the game and stands to the left of BB. Ball snapped, Ben performs some half-ass sprint out look to his left and gives an underneath handoff to Moore who promptly gets drilled before getting back to the LOS. Now I ask you – how many times in this offense does Ben sprint right or left? How many times do they fake the draw out of this action and formation? Would a right-handed QB sprint to his left from a shotgun set very often anyway? Do they have any other plays where Ben performs such a movement? The answer to all of these questions is either No or Never !!
The above example is taken from multiple games with very similar results. It shows the mentality of BA – he thinks the defense isn’t going to notice his tendencies nor the ridiculous construct of the play to begin with. Poor design and poor execution because it makes no sense in the first place.
I agree that the O Line leaves much to be desired. I agree Ben and the pass weapons are very good and should be utilized as such. I also believe the guy is not commited to the run game, has little run game ingenuity, and worst of all does not utilize his weapons effectively:
8) Draw plays are ill-conceived and poorly executed
9) Screen game is virtually non-existent
10) How about some reverses and long counters with all those speedy guys?
11) No utilization of Dixon or others in any change-up sets or schemes.
12) Too many slow developing pass plays exacerbating sacks and damage to the QB.
Your posts are well thought out and you make many good points maryrose. I and others believe he is culpable for a great many things which he should be better at in this stage of his OC career.
RickVa’s original post stated things very well, no need to regurgitate. His later question regarding control and decisions is a point I and others have brought up before too. Maybe the most intriguing question of all. Unfortunately, we will probably never know those answers. I stated some time ago that Tomlin or BA will be gone by 2011 if things don’t change – and I’m not talking about 15 wins or another SB Trophy. The poor ST play, lack of run game, unmotivated efforts and out-right losing to the worst teams in the league is going to get someone fired. I hope that doesn’t happen during year(s) hovering near .500 with this core group still intact.
"Franz" in NoCal
by franz on Jan 13, 2010 7:55 PM EST up reply actions 0 recs
Superb post franz
You made a number of great points. My favorite is No. 4: “Their run game is unimaginative, contains little or no misdirection and has no alternative formations or schemes ala the Wildcat or anything else. The only exception was the Ravens game w/ Dixon and the funny thing was – they probably should have won that game too. Nothing like that was ever seen before or after.”
I have no problem with the passing emphasis or the pass-run ratios. As Rick said in the original post, that’s just a fact of life in the NFL these days, and our skill position players fit the league-mandated style of play. I disagree with Rick’s contention that Arians sabotages the run game. The running game is sabotaged by a poor offensive line, a low level of commitment AND by the lack of creativity. There is almost no misdirection in the run game; even something as simple as the running back taking a counter-step one way and the play developing the other way is missing. As for some of your other points, they did try Wallace on a few end-arounds to some good effect; the OL is too slow so they are pretty much restricted to WR bubble screens; they obviously didn’t incorporate Mendenhall enough as a receiver, but that may have had something to do with his inexperience. He’s still green. They don’t need a FB if there’s a TE who can do the job and I think Johnson is okay in that role. They just don’t run out of the I formation very much and it’s debatable whether it would do much good if the OL is being stood up on the line all the time anyway.
The conflict here is that I think Rick and Maryrose are both correct. The Arians’ dream defense is pretty much bang-on (as was MR’s original contention that defense was the primary problem this past year), just as Rick’s post is pretty much bang-on. The only thing I would add in regards to MR is that Zierlein was probably a guy he had the most influence in bringing to Pittsburgh, having worked with him in Cleveland. And I think Zierlein did some good things, considering the talent he was given. There’s no question the line improved in pass protection from early 08 to this year, and we saw in the preseason with the young OL guys, and Foster’s play in the regular season, that they were being coached well considering their physical limitations. I think it’s obvious we have to add some elite talent to this group.
by steeler.lifer on Jan 13, 2010 11:22 PM EST up reply actions 0 recs
yay
lifer’s back! was worried about you.
ill go check myself, but who won our fantasy league? who do i owe money to? 80 to winner, 20 to second.
Freel free to email me anytime at behindthesteelcurtain@gmail.com with questions, suggestions, complaints, etc, or to just say what's up. -Michael Bean (Blitz)
by Michael Bean (Blitz) on Jan 14, 2010 5:20 PM EST up reply actions 0 recs
Money involved???!!!!
I had no idea there was any money involved in our BTSC Fantasy League. Yes, somehow I won the championship. Eighty bucks is a lot of rum down here, not to mention the cheap hookers (haha). I’ll email you an address. All I really want is an invite to next year’s fantasy league. Good fun and I enjoyed showing you young guys how to do it.
by steeler.lifer on Jan 16, 2010 12:47 AM EST up reply actions 0 recs
Thanks...
I can’t post too often like a lot of people but I have some strong opinions and just have to vent here now and again.
It is hard to be upset with the offense when looking at yards gained. Again, that is an over-valued statistic. I believe Scoring is the only real stat an offense can crow about and only if a high number of TDs is scored compared to total points. It’s like I have said many times regarding defense – Scoring Defense is the stat you want to lead the league in, not Yards Allowed. If they can’t score – they can’t win. That is what you teach your defensive players and limiting teams to FGs always gives you a chance to win the game. Four FGs can be over come with 2 TDs – you only need half as many scoring zone scores as long as they are worth 7.
"Franz" in NoCal
by franz on Jan 14, 2010 6:58 PM EST up reply actions 0 recs
ariens
maryrose it all makes sense to me BRILLIANT pass it on to all thse people who think we have a first rate running game AMEN and AMEN
by royhobbs9 on Jan 13, 2010 7:16 PM EST reply actions 0 recs
Play Calling Question/Fatigue
First note, I remember reading or hearing a little while back (last offseason to the beginning of this regular season) about the amount of playcalling that certain QB’s did on their own. The two rough numbers I remember most were Payton Mannings at 90%, and Ben’s at 60%. First off, if anyone else heard this and Im wrong, please correct me, but secondly, if this is correct, how much can you actually fault Arians on the amount of certain play calling? I doubt those numbers include a punt call, so assume you take every set of downs to third down, that means Ben basically calls 2/3 plays of every set of downs, so where does the fault actually lie?
Second note, physically, you can only prepare so much until the human body breaks down. These guys are extremely well tooled athletes to last as long as they do, my question is moreso, do you think that any changes in conditioning of the O-Line, RB’s, or even Defense contributed to their demise? It was said earlier that they werent hitting as hard this season (mind you, none of us can really tell without being on the field), but if thats true, were they actually physically weaker?
Third note, loved the writeup.
by Iceman1012 on Jan 13, 2010 8:10 PM EST reply actions 0 recs
60% sounds high for Ben. When we go no huddle, he calls the plays, but that certainly doesn’t happen 60% of the time. My understanding of Peyton is that Tom Moore gives him 3-4 plays to choose from (fairly quickly, I guess), then Peyton makes adjustments at the line.
For ideas on statistical analyses, email me at wolfpacksteelersfan@gmail.com.
by WolfpackSteelersFan on Jan 13, 2010 8:28 PM EST up reply actions 0 recs
selection bias
this is just a throwaway thought, but has anyone compared Bruce Arians to other NFL offensive coordinators? The posters on this blog (myself included) are Steeler fans. We watch all 16 Steeler matches, start to finish. Im not a Bruce Arians fan, but is there an offensive coordinator in the NFL who always calls the right play in the redzone, always strikes the perfect balance between pass and run, and whose every playcall perfectly highlights his teams strengths while hiding its weaknesses? Not saying BA is a great OC, but a lot of these issues we have with Arians may be endemic to offensive coordinators (and human beings) in general.
by OhioSteel on Jan 13, 2010 8:46 PM EST reply actions 0 recs
Good point
I haven’t looked at that. But, I think you would want to compare his calls with those of OCs with similar offensive production.
For ideas on statistical analyses, email me at wolfpacksteelersfan@gmail.com.
by WolfpackSteelersFan on Jan 13, 2010 9:52 PM EST up reply actions 0 recs
agreed
absolutely. It would take a ton of legwork, but if a study considering all redzone offensive playcalls made by all offensive coordinators in all 2009 contests were to be done, it would probably yield a better case for firing (or keeping) Arians. I think that the key metric wouldn’t necessarily be total offensive production, but rather red zone scoring percentage. An examination of this type I believe would expose BA’s play calling weaknesses (if such weaknesses do indeed exist).
by OhioSteel on Jan 13, 2010 9:59 PM EST up reply actions 0 recs
It's not that complicated is it? Here are some easy stats...
What I mean is – no complicated statistics are needed beyond what is readily available.The Steelers are 12th in Scoring but tied for 20th with the Browns in Rushing TDs. There are only 2 teams with less and a winning record. The only reason they are ranked 20th is that so many teams are tied with less than10. They scored 28 passing TDs and 10 Rushing – a 2.8 ratio which is only better than 4 other teams in the whole league. Arizona had 16 Rushing TDs for Goodness sake and they throw the ball a ton.
More numbers, and this might be the most telling stat regarding Scoring chances – The Steelers scored 41 Extra Points versus 28 FGs made. Meaning they score a TD almost 1.5 times as often as they kick a FG. That is actually a fairly low ratio compared to most of the better teams. Many of them are closer to 2 or even more. Let’s compare them to our hated rival Baltimore: they each had almost identical “made points” possessions – 67 for them and 68 for us. The Ravens scored 5 more touchdowns with one less opportunity. Those 5 additional TDs equate to 20 more points – now that could have made quite a difference in all those close games.
WHOSE OFFENSE WOULD YOU RATHER HAVE? The Steelers right? WHY DID BALTIMORE SCORE MORE TDs? They finished drives off at a better rate. They don’t have a better offense but they scored more points. And that did not come from defensive scores – both teams had 3 defensive TDs.
The Steelers rank 20, 22 and 23 in FGs over 30 yards made. They rank 7th and 2nd in FGs inside 29 yards – not necessarily a stat you want to lead the league in. Those short FGs mean you got close but came away w/o a TD.
The Steelers move the ball up and down the field in an average game very well.
Field becomes compressed, Steelers get progressively worse – again, on average.
All teams struggle at times down there.
The Steelers struggle there too much given their offensive weapons and talent level.
When the Steelers get to the 3,2 even 1 yard line – they have a hell of a time getting the RB into the end zone.
"Franz" in NoCal
by franz on Jan 14, 2010 6:51 PM EST up reply actions 0 recs
It is indeed complicated
I don’t think one make such comparison. The Steelers did not have a better offense than the Ravens, they have better skill people. The Ravens had a much better offensive line and better coaching on the line, which is key to finishing drives. The Ravens were able to run the ball when they needed to, a key component to offensive football. In 2009, the Steelers had the sexier offense, the Ravens had the better offense. Hopefully that will change in 2010.
In addition, their defense was far more consistent. Their third-down defensive stats were significantly better, meaning they kept themselves fresher rather than rely on the offense to do it. The special teams kick coverage didn’t put the entire team in a quandry. All three phases of a team, and the phases within the phases, produce too many variables from team to team to try and make it simple. From team to team, everything is apples and oranges.
Thoughtful discussion with a sense of history
by maryrose on Jan 15, 2010 10:31 PM EST up reply actions 0 recs
OK,agreed the Steelers weapons are better
If they have those weapons, why did they not score as many TDs? That is the real question. My contention is that Arians does not utilize his weapons appropriately, lacks imagination in run game, is not commited to run game and makes bone-headed play calls.
As a result, the Ravens offense is better. Sure, the Ravens O Line is probably better as a unit but they aren’t as good as the Jets or some of the better teams. Oher is a rookie and looked like it vs Woodley. The Steelers played right with B-more w/o BB. In the second game they beat them. The Ravens O LIne did not dominate a defense without 2 key starters. They couldn’t run up and down the field enough to put more points on the board than the Steelers. That said, the Steelers should be able to boat race a team like Baltimore. The Steelers have all those weapons but don’t score as many TDs over the course of a season.
The Ravens defense was more consistent – so what? We’re talking about offensive production over a season. The defense getting off the field is one thing but that is not related to how many TDs your offense scores – they still have to do it. Sure, the defense can ‘set them up’ but the offense needs to score…. how many times did the Baltimore offense attain possession inside the 10 due to ST or defense? Not enough to say that is why they scored more TDs.
They scored more TDs because the Ravens utilize their strengths better than the Steelers do. They have a better OC and he uses what he has. The Steelers do not have an offensive identity nor coherent philosophy. Every offense has it’s “Nut play”. A play it hangs it’s hat on and says to themselves and the world – this is what we run when we gotta’ have 3 yards. What play do the Steelers have on 3rd and 3? What do they believe in? It’s very hard to tell. 3rd and 3 is just as tough as 3rd and 10 for the Steelers and that should not be the case.
"Franz" in NoCal
by franz on Jan 16, 2010 2:34 PM EST up reply actions 0 recs
It really isn't
the play calling that is the question most of the time. It is the play design. His designs leave everything to be desired. Up the middle on the right. Up the middle on the left. If that doesn’t work let’s try up the middle. Trips bunch almost every time we pass? The occasional ill timed triple reverse pitch pass that everyone telegraphs and takes two days to develop. It’s all just 3 grade, ill designed and predictable.
I remember watching Bettis and imagining Whisenhunt telling him to go for the sideline 20 yards downfield. “Don’t think about anything except getting to that spot.” He would run a straight line towards that spot until he was down, out of bounds or he stopped getting hit, noticed it and then and only then would he turn up field and gain more. I miss those off tackles and slants and that commitment to the first down. Those 8 minute drives.
Don’t get me wrong. I love those Ben, Mike one play touchdowns. My favorite player, Hines, has never looked so good. Not to mention Heath and Tone. But I bet they’d all give it back for another ring.
by Damnscot on Jan 14, 2010 2:18 AM EST reply actions 0 recs
Bruce arians has to go
3rd and 1, 3rd and 2 against cleveland and we have a set up with no running backs in the backfied on 3rd and 1 or 2? what planet has arians coached at what does he know about steeler football? I have been watching the steelers diehard for the last 30 years and never seen anything like that. just tell the man thank you and let us go back to the basics that make steeler footabll what it is. smash mouth football with passing plays whenever the situation arises. one of those 40-50 yarders from bradshaw to swann or stallworth. just send the guy to oakland where al davis will appreciate his talents. as for us no thank you. How can they say Willie parker is washed out? never had the chance to run under the arian miserable offense. can you imagine Mendy and Willie in the same backfield at the same timie?? Please enough heart attacks for us diehard steelers fans with mr. arians inventiveness.
by pierrosarkisso on Jan 14, 2010 3:46 AM EST reply actions 0 recs
ashole
You’re calling me an idiot? WTF did I do to you jag off
by royhobbs9 on Jan 14, 2010 6:34 PM EST up reply actions 0 recs
Yeah, a little harsh
Sorry, thought that after I wrote it. I just take exception to calling our secret weapon MM useless. May be in terms of their utilization, but those guys skills are far from useless.
by Damnscot on Jan 15, 2010 10:23 AM EST up reply actions 0 recs
Great post
We are of the same mind.
by SteelCurtain4Life on Jan 14, 2010 9:42 AM EST reply actions 0 recs
What The Hek Did He Say Went Wrong
I Stop Reading This After The Second Parragraph…I Can Tell When Some1 Is Juswt Going To Tell Tall Tell SAtories That Does Not Answer Any1s Questions Directly…it is fact that the defense lets the team down with poor tackling from are corners…giveing 2 much cushion to apposing teams WRs…i saw an improvement in special teams this year on kick offs and punts, exsept jeff reed…but the number 1 reason why we did not make the post season is because of the plays that were called…this is fact and it is undisputable…i would have to watch the films on the games lost to give u proof…they are there…come see me mr.tomlin if u want a garrantied winning season next year…
http://www.sportsbuy.com/vipAction.do?id=145941
by ARM_CHAIR_HEAD_COACH on Jan 14, 2010 11:54 PM EST reply actions 0 recs
To me, first down this year was the key...
In almost every game I watched, BA would set the O up on first down with an obvious “run” set. Since everyone in the house knew it, the defenses would set up with at least eight men in the box, and the Steelers would, for sure, try a basic, run-left, run-middle, run-right play that would either gain them 1, 2 or minus yardage. Now, it’s second and long; guess what? Gotta throw now. Yikes.
I would like to see more PLAY-ACTION ON FIRST DOWN!!! If the D is going to come up in the box like that, SHOW the run, and then hit ‘em right between the eyes with a pass. Plays like that would have loosened up those 8-in-the-box sets, and allowed more for the run later in the game (defenses would have to honor the fact that you just might throw out of a run set). Plus, you’d likely either get a first down on the play, or be looking at second and short (two or less). And you can do whatever you want on second and short.
by philbobilbo on Jan 15, 2010 1:06 AM EST reply actions 0 recs
More on the Run
Thanks Rick! The Steelers have lost the balance of their offensive game for sure. It is not one or the other, pass or run, but both, for all the reasons you (and Merrill Hoge on ESPN said). But what really kills me everytime I see it is this: Whenever the Steelers go for a running play, the WHOLE WORLD (are you listening Ben and Bruce?) sees it. What Ben needs is an acting lesson and what Bruce needs is a choreographer, and I’m not kidding here. Would it not be possible to get set in the shotgun formation and then hand off the ball? How about Ben making a move to the right or left and fake pumping only to hand it off? Et cetera, you get the idea. You know, spice things up a little. Watching the Steelers set up a run the same, predictable, conspicuous way is like boring and predictable sex. We have an abundance of excellent running talent, but how can you expect any of them to have a chance if you telegraph your running plays for everyone with eyes to see? Ask yourselves this question: When was the last time we were surprised by the opening of a running play? Surely Ben and Bruce can at least figure out a more ARTful way of handing off the ball, other that the tried and (not so) true method of Ben moving like a zombie and sticking his arm way out to hand off the ball. Would not some kind of “keep ’em guessing” acting be part of a team effort here. Note to Ben: Just because it’s not a passing play doesn’t mean you’re off the clock. You ARE part of the run play, far more than you may realize. Selling the opponent a bad bill of goods is the very beginning and foundation for the execution of a good run. Call it trickery or a trick play if you want folks, but if Ben and Bruce can’t do any better than they are in selling the pass and then delivering the run, Willie, Mewelde, Rashard, et. al have a huge uphill battle to climb, and for no good reason other than a lack of interest or imagination on B&Bs’ part.
by mouseinthecorner on Jan 20, 2010 4:56 AM EST reply actions 0 recs
Good points
Not only predictable, but slow developing as well. For example, instead of Ben sticking his arm out and running the ball to back to Willie, Rashard, etc, how about a quick pitch. That extra second or two could make the difference between a loss in the backfield or a touchdow
by RickVa on Jan 20, 2010 1:38 PM EST reply actions 0 recs
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