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Pittsburgh Steelers 2009 Thumbnail Review

Two kicks and two catches.  On the surface, that was the only difference between the 2008 Pittsburgh Steelers and the 2009 version.  If Jeff Reed makes two field goals against Chicago that he usually makes; if Limas Sweed catches the ball right in his belly against Cincinnati; and if Joe Burnett catches the easy ball in his chest against Oakland, the Steelers would have matched their 12-4 record of a year ago.  Wipe out the two ridiculous kick returns against Cincinnati and Kansas City and the record is even better.  And yet another loss was a three-point overtime game in Baltimore with an infant quarterback.  All told, the Steelers lost five games by three points and another by six.  The only game they were handled easily, astonishingly, was against the Cleveland Browns, and that was only by seven.  The Steelers are the only team in the NFL this year that did not lose any game by more than a touchdown.

Two kicks, two catches and two kick returns.  It was almost as if someone made a deal with the football gods in 2008 to find ways to pull out ballgames, including the Super Bowl, and in return had to give them all back in 2009.  The bad news is that you never want your team to make the precipitous drop of being Super Bowl Champions one year to not making the playoffs the next.  The good news is the operative words "Super Bowl Champions" in any form or fashion. 

Beneath the surface evaluation, however, the Steelers had bigger issues than a few splash plays that didn't happen.  Dick LeBeau is Luke Skywalker, the coordinator that Steelers' fans love to love.  He is praised at every opportunity.  Fans want to kiss him on the face.  Bruce Arians is Darth Vader, the coordinator that Steelers' fans love to hate.  He is ripped at every opportunity.  Fans want to punch him in the face.  Part of that is the transparency, or lack thereof, of their job descriptions.  Offensive coordinators are like baseball managers.  Everyone is an armchair expert and knows precisely how to call better plays.  Defensive coordinators are like hockey coaches.  The mainstream fan can only look at the scoreboard to critique the jobs they do, without strategically knowing how to do better.

Be all that as it may, the Steelers offense and defense were like two ships passing in the night this past year.  In 2008, the defense won the championship with the offense making sufficient contributions.  In 2009, the offense easily played well enough to win a dozen ballgames, only to watch the defense surrender game-winning points on five final possessions (Chicago, Cincinnati, Kansas City, Baltimore and Oakland), almost unbelievably.  In the Cincinnati game, the Bengals desperately converted a 4th and double-digits.  Against Baltimore, the Ravens used back-to-back conversions of 3rd and 22 and 4th and 5 to send the game into overtime.  The Oakland game was an absolute joke.  Three fourth-quarter touchdowns led by journeyman Bruce Gradkowski answered Pittsburgh's touchdowns until the Steelers had no more time.  So predictable was this pattern, Mike Tomlin ordered an onside kick against Green Bay, incredibly conceding a score, just so his offense would have the ball last.  Fortunately but pathetically, the plan worked.

Points Per Quarter  
  First Second Third Fourth OT
Steelers 81 126 61 97 3
Opponents 52 75 56 135 6

When it comes to defensive football (or offensive for that matter), it is not just quantity, but the quality that really counts.  The Steelers' defense played above the line in terms of quantity.  They finished fifth in defensive yards allowed and 12th in points allowed, so the defense wasn't that bad overall, just bad when too many games and too many critical plays were on the line.  Therein lies the quality.  Pittsburgh gave up 135 points in the fourth quarters of games this year.  They ranked 31st in a 32-team league.  This coming from a team who gave up only 223 points (first in the NFL) over the entire  2008 season.  And keep in mind, the Steelers schedule was significantly weaker in 2009 than 2008.  In 2008, the Steelers only lost to playoff-bound teams.  In 2009 they let also-rans wreak havoc in the second halves of too many games.

A more telling statistic is third-down conversions.  Again, quality over quantity.  In 2008, against tougher opponents, the Steelers ranked first in the NFL in defense allowing (or not allowing) third-down conversions (31%).  They were third in the league when factoring both third and fourth-down conversions (33%).  In 2009, the defense went from the penthouse to the outhouse.  The defense could not get off the field on third down plays.  They were a horrific 41 percent, ranking 28th n the NFL.  On fourth down plays, they surrendured 70% and were 31st in the league.  Combine the two and the Steelers were at the absolute bottom of the barrel in terms of critical "get off the field" downs.  Moreover, these were not just third and ones or twos we're talking about here.  Pittsburgh could not stop third and eights to save their lives all season long.  Most NFL fans smile when their defense is playing third and long.  How many times did Steeler Nation cringe at "third and eight" because the opponents had us right where they wanted us?  The third down statistics were alarming to say the least.  Not only did we allow way too many third and fourth down conversions, we allowed huge chunks of yardage in the process.

Steelers Defense
2008 Rank 2009 Rank
Total yards 3795 1st 4885 5th
Points 223 1st 324 12th
3rd/4th Conv 33% 3rd 43% 28th

And how is it possible for a team to get to the final game of the season before having a cornerback intercept a pass?  How is it possible that three individual NFL players had as many interceptions (nine) as the entire Steelers' team after the first 15 games?  No one expected the defense to live up to its 2008 standards. Admittedly, that would be grossly unfair.  But to allow a predictable pattern of fourth-quarter collapses and stunning "get-off-the-field" conversions is totally unacceptable.

In fairness to the defense, playing without Aaron Smith and especially Troy Polamalu most of the season could fairly be called the difference in winning and losing at least a few games, maybe a handful.  On one hand this excuse is valid, while on the other hand this excuse cannot be valid.  Championship teams cannot be that fragile.  Tyrone Carter cannot be the answer on anyone's roster.  It should also be pointed out that the defense played well enough to win the Chicago game, certainly the Cleveland game and at least one of the Cincinnati games.  The defense won the opener against Tennessee (13-10) and also won the Minnesota game with two amazing, long fourth-quarter defensive touchdowns. 

The offense, on the other hand, played above the line much more than below it.  For the first time in franchise history, the Steelers boasted a 4,000-yard quarterback, two one-thousand yard receivers and a thousand-yard rusher.  In addition, tight end Heath Miller had the best year of his career and young Mike Wallace added a vertical dimension that was both productive and exciting.  Capping it off, the offensive line played its best ball since Super Bowl XL, though admittedly that is not necessarily saying much.  Everything about the offense improved in 2009.  Sure, the Cleveland egg was on the offense and some other times when settling for three, or even missing three, cost a couple ballgames, but over the course of 16 NFL games that is going to happen.

Steelers Offense
2008 Rank 2009 Rank
Total yards 4991 22nd 5941 7th
Points 347 20th 368 12th
3rd/4th Conv 40% 18th 41% 15th

The Steelers offense racked up almost 1,000 yards more in 2009 than 2008.  The defense gave up more than 1,000 yards more.  The offense went from 4,991 yards (22nd) and 347 points (20th) to 5,941 yards (7th) and 368 points (12th).  The offense remained steady in third and fourth down conversions, ging from 40% to 41%.  The defense went from allowing 33% of conversions to 43%, almost unbearable.

On the flip side, the offense was not without its Achilles heel.  Despite the emergence of Rashard Mendenhall, Pittsburgh could not run the ball when it absolutely had to.  The result was that the Steelers became involved in clock-stopping shootouts in fourth quarters instead of keeping the lead with a punishing ground game that could run out the clock.  Third down and one turned into passing downs.  This cannot continue. 

It is said that nothing good comes from losing, but I disagree.  To the contrary, more can be learned from failure than success.  Yes, there is a silver lining to a season where the team failed to make the playoffs after a Super Bowl.  That silver lining is the ease in which change can be enacted.  After Tomlin's first season, the team improved from 8-8 to 10-6.  You certainly cannot demand change with that type of improvement from a first-year coach.  Then in Tomlin's second year the Steelers won the Super Bowl.  Again, how can anyone demand change?  What can motivate a team that just won the title to insist upon change?  Why mess with success, right?

But now it's different.  That Super Bowl team plummeted out of the postseason, even if on the surface only a handful of critical plays did the trick.  Now there is no excuse for not making some tough decisions and realizing that the Pittsburgh Steelers are not going to win by simply showing up.  The defensive backfield needs to change both in terms of personnel and scheme.  Special teams coverage units and coaching personnel cannot be allowed to continue status quo.  Age must be converted to youth.  Third and short must be running downs.  And those are just a few of the changes.  The good news is that there is no longer an excuse not to change, not to explore an impact free agent or two and not to think outside the box.

Comment 73 comments  |  8 recs  | 

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Thanks so much for this post. It captures a lot of the things I’ve been thinking about lately.

The O played well enough to win most games and, in more than a few, put up blow out level points. Of course, it was mostly because the D kept giving it up late. Seriously, if 37 points barely wins you a game, you need to think pretty seriously about blowing up your secondary.

The D had a lot of bright spots as well. I think Timmons really flashed his playmaking ability at times, especially as a punishing blitzer. He does need to learn how to read run plays better, but I think that will come with experience. Woodley started slow and finished big. Harrison seemed to disappear at times, but some of his statistical silence has got to be because of injury. Keisel once again showed the wisdom of the FO on keeping and letter folks over 30 go. Ziggy generally showed up and played reasonably well when asked, especailly given he’s playing at a new position.

The problems on the D are well known (as Maryrose more or less laid out beautifully). The solutions aren’t as easy to come by. Can Burnett and Lewis be developed into starting corners? Can Lebeau and company possibily expect Farrior to be an every down LB now? (and if not, what do you do about it?) Why is Ike’s play so up or down depending on the game? Some games he can dominate and others he can be burned by an inferior receiver repeatedly.

The biggest questions though will be in who can you bring in to fix this mess. This will certainly be an important draft and FA period for the Steelers, but my guess is that the holes in the D that emerged this year can’t be fixed in one offseason.

by BluegrassSteeler on Jan 4, 2010 2:24 AM EST reply actions  

MR

always look forward to reading your posts.

by steelerstyle on Jan 4, 2010 4:31 AM EST reply actions  

Great Post. Agree In order for the 2010 team to be successful, DBs Burnett and Lewis or free Agent DBs must step up. Bliitz package scheme (LB success) depends on DBs being able to cover WRs downfield (ala Woodson/Lake). I am a little concerned about Troy’s ability to remain healthy, but not as concerned as I am about weak DB play overall.

by Offbeat on Jan 4, 2010 8:15 AM EST reply actions  

excellent post

This pretty much sums up how I feel about the season this morning. While it’s disappointing on so many levels to not make the playoffs – winning record, with several wins over strong teams, Troy expected to play had we gotten a wild card, many top teams fading at the end of the season, and the fact that, as you say, had even one or two of those last-second losses gone the other way we would have made it – ultimately the Steelers have no one to blame but themselves. True champions have to come ready to play hard every weekend, and the unfortunate storyline of this season was the Steelers not showing up against inferior opponents. If you lose games to Chicago, Cleveland, Oakland, AND KC, you have no one else to blame if you get edged out of the playoffs. Much as I hate to say it, congrats to the Ravens and Jets; you guys got it done when you had to.

Much as this sucks, the long-term outlook is still bright. I for one am really excited to see what a competent OC can do with all the weapons we have on offense; Ben it seems is only getting better, Mendy and Heath had strong years, and Wallace looks to be a real stud receiver. As far as defense and special teams, I think we’ve been exposed, to some extent. The ST problems I think demonstrated a lack of attention to detail and a lack of accountability. On defense, I think we’ve realized that personnel-wise this team is not as deep as we thought, and that Troy’s presence is more valuable than anyone realized. It sucks that we had to learn these things the hard way, but hopefully that means we’ll be taking them seriously this offseason.

P is for Latrobe.

by holiday park on Jan 4, 2010 9:29 AM EST reply actions  

problems with the O

I have a problem with the line of thinking that the offense “did enough to win most games” I think some of our D problems are because the O is so inconsistent. The pass-heavy offense is leading to shorter drives and a more even TOP in games. This creates a big problem with endurance for the D. This problem is exacerbated when a D, like ours, is a high-tempo blitz D and is made even worse when a D is as old as ours. Now don’t get me wrong our secondary is AWFUL but a lot of teams have been RUNNING on us too. This allows teams to be two-dimensional and thus harder to defend.

"I believe the game is designed to reward the ones who hit the hardest. If you can't take it, you shouldn't play." Jack Lambert.

by WarriorBlitz on Jan 4, 2010 9:49 AM EST reply actions  

You would think so but not true

A look at the NFL Stats shows that the offense actually had a better ToP this year than last, 6th ranking this year and 7th last year with an increase in time holding the ball.

Turnover differential was different with a -3 ratio this year versus a +4 last year. Total fumbles actually decreased from 28 to 21 but fumbles lost went from 10 to 11 in 2009. Also had a decrease in INTs from 15 to 12, so the difference there is on the defense. Take aways were not a part of this year’s defense which was only part of their problems.

I would love to see a better running game. The defense just didn’t support the team as in year’s past. The offense was better statistically, going from 20th to 12th in points scored. All of the offense in the world is not a guarantee of victory. This year points that out perfectly.

"Franz" in NoCal

by franz on Jan 4, 2010 10:18 AM EST up reply actions  

Time of possession numbers were skewed by awful kickoff return coverage....

When you march down the field for five minutes, and kick a field goal, then the other team returns your kickoff for a touchdown, you have a huge edge in TOP – five minutes versus about 15 seconds. But you are losing on the scoreboard. And you get the ball back again to increase your time of possession.

Eight times, opponents took kickoffs back all the way.

Based on that anamoly, I’m not sure TOP tells the real story.

I would kill everyone in this room for a drop of sweet beer.
- Homer J. Simpson

by Homer J. on Jan 4, 2010 10:30 AM EST up reply actions  

agreed

the problem with looking a flat stats is that you can only focus on one or two at a time and that often doesn’t tell the whole picture. The basic point I was trying to make is that the O wasn’t as good as it could have been, and that the WHOLE TEAM bears some responsibility for this season (and ALL coaches too).

I just home that MT now has the motivation (and justification as mentioned in this article it is tough to change when things are working) to turn this ship around. We need a new OC who will make Ben (who I love don’t get me wrong) work on his mechanics, and timing rather than just playing backyard football ALL the time. BA and BB are too chummy, and both are too big a fan of the splashy plays (ex. the Tone trick play…what was THAT?). And I think MT has let these guys get a little too loose, time to tighten up and bring everyone back to earth…first step tackling drills for the D!!!

"I believe the game is designed to reward the ones who hit the hardest. If you can't take it, you shouldn't play." Jack Lambert.

by WarriorBlitz on Jan 4, 2010 11:10 AM EST up reply actions   1 recs

We need a new OC who will make Ben (who I love don’t get me wrong) work on his mechanics, and timing rather than just playing backyard football ALL the time. BA and BB are too chummy, and both are too big a fan of the splashy plays

+1

"We are only going to score 17 points?"

by Han on Jan 4, 2010 11:11 AM EST up reply actions  

+1

This is the best arguement there is for a change at the OC position. It’s almost undeniable.

'I’ve learned to become a flat-liner. There’s a lot out there that’ll make your heart jump if you allow it."
-Coach Tomlin

by NYSteelersFan4 on Jan 4, 2010 1:58 PM EST up reply actions  

Great comment

I agree wholeheartedly that the entire team bears some responsibility. The defense sucked in the 4th quarter, but in many games, so did the offense. In games where the offense was racking up yards like nobody’s business, they were also settling for FGs instead of burying the opposition when they had the chance. Against Green Bay, we had 500 passing yards and no turnovers. We should have scored about 50 points in that game if the offense scores TDs on long drives instead of FGs. Against KC, we outgain them close to 2-1, but a KR for a TD and a 90+ yard interception return keep it close. It was the whole team, not just one unit.

For ideas on statistical analyses, email me at wolfpacksteelersfan@gmail.com.

by WolfpackSteelersFan on Jan 4, 2010 3:07 PM EST up reply actions  

Why should we blame the offense if the defense is not getting off the field in the 4th quarter?

The offense is getting leads in games. How many points should we be ahead so that the defense can be productive in the 4th quarter? 10? 15? 21?

Even if the offensive drives are shorter, enough points were scored on the board for the defense to hold up. Even 2 TD leads with less than 5 minutes remaining were not enough for this defense.

Defense could never stop the teams from making their 3rd down conversions. Green Bay scored most of their TDs on 3rd and long. In the first game against the Bengals, they converted all their 3rd downs and one 4th and 10 when they needed a TD to win the game. Ravens converted their 3rd and 22 situation.
If it wasn’t for our offense, we lose the Green Bay game, Oakland game and the San Diego game for sure. Of course the offense also made us lose the Cleveland game but that is the only game where I can say that the offense is solely to be blamed. Against that I can count at least 4 games where the defense lost the games for us.

"We are only going to score 17 points?"

by Han on Jan 4, 2010 11:08 AM EST up reply actions  

*we lost the Oakland game anyway

"We are only going to score 17 points?"

by Han on Jan 4, 2010 11:09 AM EST up reply actions  

Against Cincy, game 1

The offense had 3 plays for 9 yards in the 4th quarter. Plus, a pick-6 in the 3rd quarter. The offense certainly did just enough to contribute to some of those losses as well.

For ideas on statistical analyses, email me at wolfpacksteelersfan@gmail.com.

by WolfpackSteelersFan on Jan 4, 2010 3:09 PM EST up reply actions  

Thank You Great Sage!

for always providing thoughtful insight and analysis to our favorite NFL franchise. In lieu of a wife and kids, I have a football team. I’m going to miss them greatly and I can’t wait until July.

And I think that the offense while putting up super numbers was a HUGE part of the 4th quarter problem. Changes MUST be made. The blueprint was right there in front of Mr. Arians the whole time. 7 minutes to go and the Steelers lead. MILK THE CLOCK. Give it to FWP…the mini bus! I’m going to miss Fast Willie Parker. What a great player and teammate. We will never forget the 75 yard jaunt or the 146 you hung on the Bolts in the 08 playoffs FWP. God Speed!

When You Run The Ball Good Things Happen

by 5020 on Jan 4, 2010 10:11 AM EST reply actions  

I wouldn't write off FWP just yet

If he’s willing to take a reasonable contract, he might still be a decent change of pace back for a couple of years, and I could see him taking a paycut to stay with the Steelers if they offer him.

For ideas on statistical analyses, email me at wolfpacksteelersfan@gmail.com.

by WolfpackSteelersFan on Jan 4, 2010 3:13 PM EST up reply actions  

39

I’m doubtful because I think someone will want to pay him but I’m starting to think it could happen. Someone earlier also posted something about maybe keeping FWP in lieu or MeMo. I would like to hang on to him. You need someone that can carry the load if your #1 RB goes down for a couple weekends. I just think the guy is a money player and the league recognizes that.

When You Run The Ball Good Things Happen

by 5020 on Jan 4, 2010 4:35 PM EST up reply actions  

I doubt he’s a feature back anymore, but if someone overpays for him, he’s definitely gone. I guess I was thinking that his injuries the last two seasons would make it unlikely that someone else would pursue him.

For ideas on statistical analyses, email me at wolfpacksteelersfan@gmail.com.

by WolfpackSteelersFan on Jan 4, 2010 5:40 PM EST up reply actions  

He's gone

He as much as said so in his post-game farewell. He also said that he firmly believes that he’s a starting RB. I don’t think his ego will allow him to stay for less $. And once he goes the FA route and tests the waters it will be even harder for him to admit that staying in Pgh was his best option. I’ve been a big FWP fan for years, but let’s face it — the guy was a one-trick pony: speed and more speed. He never really mastered the cutback, never made tacklers miss, rarely fought for extra yards after contact, and was just not a very good receiver out of the backfield. I wish him well.

by Citizen of Steeler Nation on Jan 4, 2010 9:26 PM EST up reply actions  

If that's what he said

then, yeah, he’s gone.

For ideas on statistical analyses, email me at wolfpacksteelersfan@gmail.com.

by WolfpackSteelersFan on Jan 5, 2010 10:46 AM EST up reply actions  

If that's what he said

then, yeah, he’s gone.

For ideas on statistical analyses, email me at wolfpacksteelersfan@gmail.com.

by WolfpackSteelersFan on Jan 5, 2010 10:47 AM EST up reply actions  

Great post!

I think the future of 2010 will have a return to the past and see the return of the FB position.

I know the Steelers don’t spend tons of cash, but with an uncapped year, if there is one out there that they could purchase, they could buy a new FB. I’m guessing that FB’s don’t make a ton of dough anyway, so it can’t cost THAT much…..can it?

I know FWP wants to be #1 or be somewhere else…but really….if there is no FB then why not have SOME plays where there are both RM and FWP in the backfield? What about using DD more often? The kids has talent and he’s sitting on the bench rotting. A play with with BB, DD, and RM all in the backfield could bring utter confusion to a defense!!!

by Ragnar808 on Jan 4, 2010 10:17 AM EST reply actions  

Niiice
What about using DD more often? The kids has talent and he’s sitting on the bench rotting. A play with with BB, DD, and RM all in the backfield could bring utter confusion to a defense!!!

I really super like that idea!

by since'75 on Jan 4, 2010 7:28 PM EST up reply actions  

Quick question

How many teams that use the wildcat (or their version of it) are in the playoffs this year?

"Chris! That's a terrible word! Pussywillows..."
-Lois Griffin

by Steel Spike on Jan 5, 2010 1:44 AM EST up reply actions  

Eagles.

questions like that really aren’t as useful as they seem.

by klompus on Jan 6, 2010 2:14 AM EST up reply actions  

Heck of a recap

Really well said, and excellent analysis. I thought your analogy comparing the job of offensive and defensive coordinator to a baseball manager and a hockey coach was perfect. Very appropriate.

And as far as the football gods are concerned, we certainly benefitted from their blessings in ‘05 and ’08 so I suppose we can’t feel too cheated this year. Perhaps next year, with some smart off-season moves and a third-place schedule, they’ll smile on us again. That is, if we give them reason to!

by cliff harris is still a punk! on Jan 4, 2010 10:52 AM EST reply actions  

"We increased our offensive production by 1,000 yards but our points by only 3 touchdowns?"

I want to make that my sig.

+1

Maybe the winds of fortune have decided to favor us again. Just in time for the playoffs.

by svenhoek on Jan 4, 2010 1:02 PM EST up reply actions  

"We increased our offensive production by 1,000 yards but our points by only 3 touchdowns?"

That stuck out to me as well. For all of the yards racked, how many drives were squandered by bad play calling at inopportune times? As far as calling out the defensive coaching: they have the better track record, which makes me think it was more to do with the transition to several different starters, especially after Troy and A Smith got hurt.

For ideas on statistical analyses, email me at wolfpacksteelersfan@gmail.com.

by WolfpackSteelersFan on Jan 4, 2010 3:18 PM EST up reply actions  

Oh and the point about Tone throwing instead of Hines.

I was wondering the same thing. Hines has a nearly flawless record in those plays from The Whiz day’s.

Maybe we could borrow Randle El from the Redskins for a couple plays?

Maybe the winds of fortune have decided to favor us again. Just in time for the playoffs.

by svenhoek on Jan 4, 2010 1:05 PM EST up reply actions  

Good point about about Tone. guess BA thought like Jim Zorn..they would not have expected that.

Things can always be worse....

by ncmt40 on Jan 4, 2010 1:14 PM EST up reply actions  

No, if BA thought like Zorn

He would have called the same play on the next series. Hahaha

Optimism. Positivity. Win.

by John Stephens on Jan 4, 2010 1:19 PM EST up reply actions  

He couldn’t the ball was intercepted

Things can always be worse....

by ncmt40 on Jan 4, 2010 1:22 PM EST up reply actions  

Haha

Optimism. Positivity. Win.

by John Stephens on Jan 4, 2010 1:24 PM EST up reply actions  

Another thing..

I know Hines is good after the catch, but doesn’t it make more sense on a bubble screen to have your best blocking WR blocking, and a faster more elusive WR catching the ball instead of the opposite?

Things can always be worse....

by ncmt40 on Jan 4, 2010 1:24 PM EST up reply actions  

Sometimes, but can’t always throw it to the same WR on a screen or the defense will see it coming. And that can turn into a very easy pick six.

Optimism. Positivity. Win.

by John Stephens on Jan 4, 2010 2:33 PM EST up reply actions  

True

but it seems like most of the ones i see are to Ward. use the same formation just vary who gets the ball. tone did get some, but seemed like ward got most of them. maybe it was just the games i saw, i did not get to see all of them…oh well maybe next season..

Things can always be worse....

by ncmt40 on Jan 4, 2010 2:39 PM EST up reply actions  

Interesting point about the 21-point difference with 1,000 yards

I’d still rather figure that out though, than losing 1,000 yards (like the defense did). Another way to put it is I would love to increase another 1,000 yards and 21 points next year. Those 21 points were the difference between finishing 20th in the league to finishing 12, a sizeable improvement, so maybe the league as a whole tightened up this year. Our defense also finished 12th, but went from 1st to 12th, a sizeable disappointment. Again, we cannot hold the defense to the legendary numbers of 2008.

Talking about why we only scored 21 more points with 1,000 yards is a recreational discussion for me that can take place somtime in the summer. Talking about how we went from 3rd in the league to 28th in third/fourth-down defensive conversions, going from a 33% rate to a downright alarming 43% rate, is a much more important discussion. Moreover, many of those conversions were third-and-long and we simply could not get off the field. That is the discussion I am going to have at 8:00 am tomorrow morning in my office with the people responsible.

Thoughtful discussion with a sense of history

by maryrose on Jan 4, 2010 7:52 PM EST up reply actions  

Yeah it was just interesting and I thought I’d mention. The offense was definitely a lot better this year and when you look at only a 21 point difference it doesn’t seem to add up. That was my point. That extra yardage is a little over 60 yards a game, almost enough for a full drive. I think the problem, as I said before, results from the weird RZ play calls. I believe last year our RZ TD scoring efficiency was around 56% (13th) and this year it dropped drastically to 48% (22nd).

The third down conversions were bad this year, especially on the defensive side. Probably the biggest reason we couldn’t close out a lot of games this year (unless we got turnovers). I will definitely be looking forward to the discussions and your posts in the coming months. Anyway, I never knew you actually worked for the Steelers? (hope I read that right, that is pretty cool).

Optimism. Positivity. Win.

by John Stephens on Jan 4, 2010 8:23 PM EST up reply actions  

LOL...I never worked for the Steelers!

I was using figure of speech, projecting myself in ownership capacity. Arians is the coordinator who gets bashed unmercifully, but if I owned the Steelers, or was head coach, it would be the defensive people who would be in my office first for all the reasons I mentioned above. Yeah I’d like a few more points out of 1,000 extra yards. That’s a great point.

But if I owned the team, I’d say to my offensive coordinator, that was a job well done. Your quarterback was elite in the league with a 100 rating and 4,300 yards. Rashard Mendenhall did nothing but improve as the season progressed. Your tight end had the best year of his career. Your two veteran wideouts had 2,400 yards and the rookie receiver was a delightful surprise that took three receivers over 3,000 yards. Even the O-line played better than the two previous years, though admittedly that is not saying much. Yes, Bruce, we have some things to discuss. Sometimes your play calling puzzles me, but I’ll get back to you later on that….

In the meantime, I want the defensive coaches in my office first thing tomorrow to explain much bigger problems than gaining 1,000 yards and only increasing 21 points. I want to talk about the declines and regressions….

Thoughtful discussion with a sense of history

by maryrose on Jan 4, 2010 9:43 PM EST up reply actions   1 recs

All my metaphorical glasses were not on, sorry I missed the analogy. And on BA, as I said now that the season is over and I was able to take a step back and look, I’m not really for firing him. I do think that Tomlin and Rooney need to suggest running the ball more, especially with the lead in the fourth.

Anyway, I don’t know how to make heads or tails of the defenses performance this year. Are we really that dependent on Troy against the passing game? He cannot fix everything, right? I am terrified that the FO might think that Troy will be the cure to the defense and not shore up our other problems. We need a CB and a back up safety as well as youth on the D Line and at LB. Troy cannot do what he does if he does not have players making plays in front of him.

A long off-season to discuss all of this though.

Optimism. Positivity. Win.

by John Stephens on Jan 5, 2010 8:13 AM EST up reply actions  

I agree with running...but

The O-line has been a problem…Which I don’t blame BA for!! Maybe, just maybe, he knows something that we don’t! To me, running the ball is easier said than done..We dont have the horses to pull that off!

by nycsteelerfan on Jan 5, 2010 3:27 PM EST up reply actions  

Can't wait

to hear the results of your meeting. Great post by the way. There are a lot of ways to look at the extra offense yardage. I view it like Logan’s kick off return yardage. In a perfect Steeler world, he would return one kick a game.

by SteelBuckeye on Jan 4, 2010 8:46 PM EST up reply actions  

+1...I've thought all year

that losing McFadden AND Foote put a dent in our defense, both overall and in depth.

by tobiathan on Jan 5, 2010 12:02 AM EST up reply actions  

Excellent Post

The only line I really disagree with is this, in reference to the Troy injury: “Championship teams cannot be that fragile.”

What we found out this year is that Troy is one of the ten biggest impact players in the league, QBs included. Losing him did to the Steeler defense what losing Tom Brady did to the NE offense in 2008.

Every team is fragile. In a salary-cap league nobody truly has depth.

by Steelers in XLIV on Jan 4, 2010 11:02 AM EST reply actions  

+1 absolutely so true

"Availability is a good ability." - Mike Tomlin

by dminor on Jan 4, 2010 6:57 PM EST up reply actions  

Umm. . .

Matt Cassel threw for 3700 yards and 21 TDs last year. I’ll take that in a back-up QB any day of the week. I get your point — and agree — but don’t think Brady-to-Cassel is the best example. If we had that little of a drop-off between Troy and Tyrone our secondary would have been much better.

by Citizen of Steeler Nation on Jan 4, 2010 9:39 PM EST up reply actions  

yeah but...

…remember bad Cassel vs. a certain #1 D in primetime?

In ‘07 Brady was in charge of arguably the most prolific O in NFL history that fell a drive short of 19-0… ’08 the Pats were minus #12 and -5 W’s and missed the playoffs.

In ‘08 Polamalu was the ultimate weapon for arguably (given this era of O) the most prolific D in NFL history that finished as SB champs (though nearly fell a drive short as well!)… ’09 the Steelers were (mostly) minus #43 and -3 W’s and missed the playoffs.

The margin between greatness and not-good-enough is so very slim, and many times appears to be more subjective than a ref’s ball spot on 3rd-and-inches. That thought alone makes me appreciate that XLIII victory all the more, all over again.

"Availability is a good ability." - Mike Tomlin

by dminor on Jan 4, 2010 11:19 PM EST up reply actions  

Oh Yeah, I Remember

That game was SO sweet, but really was not typical of Cassel’s overall performance last year. No one will argue that Cassel was as good as Brady but, as back-ups go, he was pretty darn good. And, though they missed the playoffs last year, who among us wouldn’t take an 11-5 record when your best player is on IR?

by Citizen of Steeler Nation on Jan 5, 2010 7:35 AM EST up reply actions  

I'm a firm believer that Cassel was 95% randy moss, wes welker, and system.

have you ever met culpepper or are you familiar with the randy moss effect?

by klompus on Jan 6, 2010 2:15 AM EST up reply actions  

Great stuff MR

Thanks for your work, not just now, but throughout the year. While our stats on offense went up, stats do not always win ball games. Granted, the defense gave up too many 4th quarter leads, but could it have been due to the pass happy, quick striking(or quick 3 and outs) our D did not get enough time to rest between possessions and therfore not having enough gas to finish games strong? the stats look nice, but being seeded for the playoffs would look a whole lot better. hopefully MT and the FO will see that and make the necessary changes/upgrades now that they have an extra month to do that.

Things can always be worse....

by ncmt40 on Jan 4, 2010 11:12 AM EST reply actions  

Love your posts.

Troy, imo, was the QB of our defense. Last year, the Pats lose Brady, and no one expects them to do anything. Finishing out of the playoffs was not shocking, even though their offense remained almost unchanged. Troy gets hurt, and because he is a SS, people assume that TC should be stepping up and covering his role. Troy did alot of defensive QB’ing from the backfield, and I think the defense was really missing their “leader” to assess the situation and make calls from the line. Thats just my opinion of course, I always used to see him in the backfield pointing and yelling before plays. There were other, more severe problems, on defense, but it’s just something I wanted to throw out.

Being out of the playoffs and the season being over makes you assess things alot. Maybe too much.

Go BAL and NY this weekend. I got respect for BAL. And I want to see the Jungle in flames.

We increased our offensive production by 1,000 yards but our points by only 3 touchdowns?
-Johnny_S

by svenhoek on Jan 4, 2010 1:13 PM EST reply actions  

Nice post

You seem to have covered all of the bases there. I already mentioned it above, but the things that stuck out to me were the discrepancies in two stats. The offense ranked higher in yards gained than points scored, while the opposite was true for the defense. That tells me that the offense wasted too many opportunities over the course of the season, while the defense’s points allowed ranking was dinged by 8 straight weeks of some type of return (KR, PR, INT, or FR) for a TD. I’m sure there were a couple more in there, too, but that’s at least 56 points that weren’t the defense’s fault. They totally sucked against the Raiders, Packers, and Dolphins in the 4th quarter, but some of the other games, they got no help from the offense or STs in the 4th.

For ideas on statistical analyses, email me at wolfpacksteelersfan@gmail.com.

by WolfpackSteelersFan on Jan 4, 2010 3:26 PM EST reply actions  

Loved the post

Disagree on the conclusion for an impact FA, unless impact refers to someone in the Ryan Clark or Mewelde Moore range. After glancing at the cap situation, and the money desired by Holmes and Woodley, I think we will not be able to keep our own, re-sign some of the UFAs, and pick up some new players.

Holmes wants Greg Jennings money as starting point: 4 years, $26.885 million, $16.25 million guaranteed
Woodley wants DeMarcus Ware money: 7 years, $79 million, $40 million guaranteed; the contract is very backloaded in the final two years (2014 and 2015= $26 million)

Disregarding the potential for a single uncapped year, we will have to accomodate those salaries in the future. If Jennings is the bargaining point, that seems fair for Holmes. I have to imagine Woodley would need to come down from his stance on Ware. The Cowboys are the Cowboys, plus I do not think Ware sees out his contract.

Anyways, given the amount of money we have recently given to Harrison (5 more years at a sizeable cap hit), something has to give. We either have to let one of those two leave (I hope not), release some aging veterans (decent option given the amnesty provided by an uncapped year), or let guys like Hampton and Parker move on. Big Snack will want money in the $4-5 million/year range and probably deserves it. It certainly will not hurt that he can say he is a Pro Bowler this year (ha!). FWP wants to be a starter, though even if that flames out, and we could retain him for around $2 million/year, we would still need to balance pouring more money in the offense versus what it would take to fix an aging defense.

Interested in what you think. Definitely my longest post so far on BTSC.

Troy Pull-a-muscle? :(

by sctx109 on Jan 4, 2010 4:14 PM EST reply actions  

Interesting stuff on Holmes and Woodley

I agree that Holmes’ position is reasonable. He will be our #1 receiver and deserves a solid contract, but he has not proven himself to be among the elite receivers in the league. Woodley will be more problematic, as we are already paying Harrison DPOY money to do the same things Woodley does. I don’t think we can pay Woodley $10M+ per year.

by Steelin on Jan 4, 2010 7:11 PM EST up reply actions  

has anyone heard

anything about Ben’s arm/shoulder?

Things can always be worse....

by ncmt40 on Jan 4, 2010 4:22 PM EST reply actions  

only quick post-game blurb I saw
The Steelers never had to turn to their backup quarterback, but Roethlisberger said he needed to see a doctor after the game. He declined to discuss his injury.

"Availability is a good ability." - Mike Tomlin

by dminor on Jan 4, 2010 7:08 PM EST up reply actions  

great post

I agree with some other sentiments that Troy is less a fragile defense, and more a superb player. In baseball stats, there is VORP, value over replacement player. The nfl doesn’t really have that stat equivalent (largely because stays in the nfl are difficult to ascertain, and there is too much oldschool thinking at may levels).
But I would argue that healthy Troy has one of the highest NFL vorp’s. And if that value was greater than 3 points, he is making a HUGE impact on close games. The steelers have great depth, but Troy is a unique talent that cannot be replaced, an alltime great.

by vherub on Jan 4, 2010 4:58 PM EST reply actions  

Nice Post

Thanks for the insights

by Twell on Jan 4, 2010 5:46 PM EST reply actions  

Add to list of would have beens

If Tomlin would have used the challenge flag at critical times in the game in two different games they eventually lost, we may be preparing for the playoffs instead of a mediocre draft position!

by RickyBobby90210 on Jan 4, 2010 6:04 PM EST reply actions  

best NFL stat heard on Monday

All (4) of last year’s top seeds (i.e., teams that clinched a first round bye) — PIT, TEN, CAR, NYG — missed the playoffs this year.

"Availability is a good ability." - Mike Tomlin

by dminor on Jan 4, 2010 7:04 PM EST up reply actions  

Great post

But when all of the “maybes” and “might have beens” are stated, two of your words stand out above the rest: “totally unacceptable.” The distance between 9-7 and 12-4 might as well have been a million miles this season.

by Billy52 on Jan 4, 2010 10:38 PM EST reply actions  

Without the referees

It’s a little tougher to win without ridiculous touchdown reversals or phantom running into the kicker calls like in the AFC championship game. If you factor in the uncalled safety in the Titans game and tripping call that wasn’t in the Vikings game you have two more losses. Maybe last years team wasn’t that good and this years team didn’t get as much help from the twelfth man.

by TheShadow on Jan 5, 2010 1:10 AM EST reply actions  

Go Dye your hair and listen to Depeche Mode, emo kid

"Chris! That's a terrible word! Pussywillows..."
-Lois Griffin

by Steel Spike on Jan 5, 2010 1:51 AM EST up reply actions  

Thorough Analysis

That was a very complete run down — nice to see something so thorough to end the season. In many ways Mike Tomlin was right on the ball when he said the Dolphins game provided a snapshot of the entire year.

The Steelers started strong, they did some back and forth, then the built some momentum and looked like they were just about to run away with things…

…then they gave every appearance of trying to find ways to lose game.

But they bounced back…

by Hombre de Acero on Jan 5, 2010 11:56 AM EST reply actions  

Thanks MR, great summary.

I read, and re-read the post along with the discussions on the +1,000 yards and only +21 pts. I’m thinking that I’m a little harsher in my judgements than you….I think Arians needs to go. The extra production looks great on paper, I love seeing all those “1000 yard success stories,” but if the cost of that production is not making the play-offs, you can have it all back. We lost all the game by 7 pts or fewer, so in terms of scoring – the extra yards meant little to nothing.
Maybe Arians arrogance – recall the comment about never having a fullback in MY offense? – needs to be addressed rather than firing, but I can’t imagine he’d be able to change now. Too much pride after all the extra 0’s.
I absolutely do not want to see an empty backfield ever again, let alone 3rd and short. WTF????

That all being said, I favor the D all of the time, and freely admit to having a problem with being totally objective.

by dawgs144 on Jan 5, 2010 3:30 PM EST reply actions  

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