NFL Quality Rankings

by Steelin on Nov 10, 2010 1:47 AM EST

Bumped from the fanposts. I'd been meaning to write something similar, and Steelin' does a great job laying out all the information cleanly and informatively. Thanks to him for the write-up. - Michael B. -

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At the midpoint of the season, how should we rank the top NFL teams? Most ranking systems are based on overall record. Instead, I will look only at games against quality opponents, ignoring games in which teams beat up a hapless loser. Who cares that the Patriots beat Buffalo? For my analysis, I define “quality opponent” as a team with a winning record or road game against a team with a .500 record. Note that opponents meeting this standard will change as the season goes on, because team’s records can change. For most of the opponents on this list, however, we can assume that if they have a winning record at the halfway point, they will probably continue to do so.

The following chart summarizes the record of the top six teams in the NFL when facing quality opponents:

Team	Overall Record	Quality Wins	Quality Losses	Quality Record
Steelers	6-2	ATL (6-2), at TEN (5-3), at TB (5-3), at MIA (4-4)	BAL (6-2), at NO (6-3)	4-2 (.667)
Ravens	6-2	at NYJ (6-2), at PIT (6-2)	at NE (6-2)	2-1 (.667)
Patriots	6-2	at MIA (4-4), BAL (6-2)	at NYJ (6-2)	2-1 (.667)
Jets	6-2	NE (6-2), at MIA (4-4)	BAL (6-2), GB (5-3)	2-2 (.500)
Falcons	6-2	at NO (6-3), TB (5-3)	at PIT (6-2), at PHL (5-3)	2-2 (.500)
Giants	6-2	CHI (5-3), at HOU (4-4)	at IND (5-3), TEN (5-3)	2-2 (.500)

The first conclusion from this chart is that the Steelers have played a brutal schedule that includes far more quality opponents than any of their rivals. Six of the Steelers’ first eight games, in fact, qualify as quality opponents. Of these six, four were road games, and four were played without the Steelers’ top two QBs. Despite these handicaps, the team persevered with four victories and two losses against quality opponents.

The Ravens and Patriots, in contrast, have gotten off light so far, playing only three quality opponents each. (The Ravens-Dolphins game does not count because the 4-4 Dolphins played in Baltimore.) Both teams have won two quality games and lost one, a respectable record. To the Ravens’ credit, their two quality victories both came on the road. Despite facing three of their four quality opponents at home, the Jets have just a 2-2 record in such games.

The Falcons also have a 2-2 record against quality opponents, besting two top NFC teams but losing to their only quality AFC opponent. The Giants have two quality victories, but they were blown out by the two strong AFC teams they faced by a combined score of 67-24. In addition, the Giants' six overall victories have come against a collection of pitiable teams with a combined record of just 17-31, helping them to run up their statistics, but it is hardly a record to be proud of.

In conclusion, the Steelers are one of only three teams in the NFL with a winning record against quality opponents. Among those three teams (all in the AFC), the Steelers have the most quality wins and the most quality road wins, establishing them as the best team in the NFL, in my opinion. I would rank the remaining teams in the order shown in the table. The Giants, however, are a fraud and should probably be ranked below several 5-3 teams.

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Comments

Very well done Steelin

Your analysis is well compiled and presented. And yes the Giants don’t really belong in the top 10 (yet alone top 6) but for now that’s where the luck of the draw places them. Anyhow, thanks for sharing this with us.

by ImRB on Nov 10, 2010 8:31 AM EST reply actions

excellent illustration

stats are all well and good, but wins are what matter – and some wins are far more difficult to earn than others.

for those who cry and wring their hands over the steelers’ performance thus far, please take note – they’re playing one of the toughest schedules in the league. good opponents obviously play well, especially at home and are rarely blown out, which certainly accounts for some of the steelers’ struggles and close wins.

by lamarr_the_BEAST! on Nov 10, 2010 9:11 AM EST reply actions

Looking at the remaining schedules

Steelers (5 home, 3 away)
Opp Record: 29-36 (.446)
Quality Opp: Pats, @Ravens, Jets (fringe: @CLE)

Ravens (4H,4A)
33-30 (.524)
@ATL, TB, Pitt, NO (fringe: @HOU, @CLE)

Pats (4H,4A)
34-31 (.523)
@Pitt, IND, NYJ, GB (fringe: @CHI, MIA)

Jets (4H,4A)
30-34 (.469)
@NE, @Pitt, (fringe @CLE, HOU, MIA, @CHI)

I would have put DET as a fringe team, but they might have lost Stafford for the season. I put Houston as a fringe team because they have looked like crap in their last few games. Chicago gets fringe because I think they are pretenders. Miami gets fringe because they have lost to every good team they played, except for GB, but I think that is when Rodgers had the concussion.

I think the Steelers have the “easiest” remaining schedule and the Pats have the hardest followed closely by the Ravens. I like our odds of getting that #1 seed if we can replace Starks or he is not out for the season.

"I'm from Maryland, and no one can beat me!"

by John Stephens on Nov 10, 2010 9:13 AM EST reply actions

Yea

but we had the easiest remaining schedule last year and we blew it. I think how we come out and play at home will be imperative to how the season will go. We just came off a three game road trip and the Pats just came off an embarrassing loss. At least we’ll be at home and if the Ravens lose Thursday night the guys should be motivated to take the lead in the North with a win on Sunday night.

Steelers football is 60 mins. The final 15 have been re-constructed with re-enforced steel and ready to withstand punishment and deal out some itself. HERE WE GO STEELERS HERE WE GO.

by tannofsteel84 on Nov 10, 2010 9:38 AM EST up reply actions

shouldn't the Raiders be at least a "fringe" team?

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by nycsteelerfan on Nov 11, 2010 12:55 PM EST up reply actions

Interesting point

they certainly seem to be making a move and, if IIRC they have a bye week to heal up. I don’t expect them to be a push over.

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by Cold_Old_Steelers_Fan on Nov 12, 2010 4:50 PM EST up reply actions

jets have a much easier remaining schedule, Patriots, Ravens, Jets, Raiders, and Browns are all quality teams home or away

"I believe the game is designed to reward the ones who hit the hardest. If you can't take it, you shouldn't play." ~Jack Lambert.
"The next thing you know, they are going to pass a rule that says the Quarterbacks have to wear skirts" ~Jack Lambert,
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by H-burgSTEELfanatic on Nov 11, 2010 3:38 PM EST up reply actions

thanks

I like this take on things.

For me, it lends a bit of respect for the Browns! They have a 2-5 quality record, but have consecutive wins over NE and NO and, except the Bengals, have played a schedule against teams with winning records.

Could they go 6-2 the rest of the way?!

by stylepoints on Nov 10, 2010 9:41 AM EST reply actions

How about adding the Eagles to the chart

They played Indy, GB, Atl, and Tenn, and have beat Indy and Atl. With two QB’s

I'm getting tired of saying this: Dick LeBeau’s system is so complex very few rookies can make an impact.

"It would be tough for me to care less about their opinion, to be honest with you." Mike Tomlin

by Steel in FL on Nov 10, 2010 12:09 PM EST reply actions

nice

by Steely McSmash on Nov 10, 2010 12:51 PM EST reply actions

one more thing to add too

one of the steelers’ non-quality wins came when they dismantled the browns 28-10; the browns, who only went on to destroy new orleans and new england in their next two games by a combined 64-31.

that shouldn’t count as a “quality” win per se – cleveland is still only 3-5 – but that’s got to speak highly of the steelers as well.

in fact, it would be interesting, as a counterpoint to this post, to track the non-quality losses. chris berman said something about this in the pregame on monday night – how pittsburgh is the only team without at least one head-scratching loss this year.

either way, nice post.

by cassidy77 on Nov 10, 2010 2:29 PM EST reply actions

If Cleveland holds their own this week

or win, they could be a fringe team..

by nycsteelerfan on Nov 11, 2010 12:56 PM EST up reply actions

Great Post

It reminds me of something I read on the Giants board. Another great read as well.

http://www.bigblueview.com/2010/11/8/1801591/there-are-no-good-teams-in-the-nfl

One of the great disappointments of a football game is that the cheerleaders never seem to get injured.

by samliam on Nov 10, 2010 5:13 PM EST reply actions

Why should the Giants be counted as a "fraud"?

That’s a good football team that didn’t have their crap together early on, but sure seem to now. Is it simply the teams they have played that makes you call them frauds?

" Just go and lay your hand on a Pittsburgh Steeler fan, and then I think you'll finally understand"

" In America" Charlie Daniels Band

by idiscgolftexas on Nov 11, 2010 8:42 AM EST reply actions

They have only beaten two good teams

You have to give them credit for those wins but we’ll see as the season and playoffs play out. I think they are a playoff team in the NFC because its so weak. But look Indy has trouble stopping the run, they run the ball well. So that game I can see why they won it, there was a match up issue. Tennessee was a good win at home. But I think that defense is questionable and they’re offense can be stopped if you take away the run. We’ll see what happens.

Steelers football is 60 mins. The final 15 have been re-constructed with re-enforced steel and ready to withstand punishment and deal out some itself. HERE WE GO STEELERS HERE WE GO.

by tannofsteel84 on Nov 11, 2010 10:15 AM EST up reply actions

Calling Chicago and Houston good is a major stretch

Glory is fleeting, but obscurity is forever
-Napoleon Bonaparte

As for CJ, he’s going to get his. That’s what he does. You can’t hold him under 100 yards, so forget that.
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CJ's Stat Line, 9/19/10: 16 carries, 34 yards, 1 fumble

Cornell University Class of 2014

by LV Steelers Fan on Nov 11, 2010 1:45 PM EST up reply actions

I thought they beat

Tennessee and Indy… oh those are quality losses…. lol

Well then, they suck! lol

Steelers football is 60 mins. The final 15 have been re-constructed with re-enforced steel and ready to withstand punishment and deal out some itself. HERE WE GO STEELERS HERE WE GO.

by tannofsteel84 on Nov 11, 2010 3:41 PM EST up reply actions

Yeah but you cant blame them based on who theyve played

Its not their fault they havent been scheduled to play tough teams. They have been absolutely killing teams lately in impressive fashion, rather than just winning. I think Giants or Falcons are the teams to beat at the moment in the NFC

Iron sharpens Iron

by Michael Hewitt on Nov 13, 2010 2:54 PM EST up reply actions