2009 Offensive Third Down Efficiency
by John Stephens on Mar 16, 2010 9:50 AM EDT
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PrintDuring the 2009 season the Pittsburgh Steelers had plenty of problems, but the one people like to gripe about most was the offensive play calling by fan non-favorite, Bruce Arians. Specifically, one of the biggest concerns was the obscure or poor play calling on third down. Good 3rd down conversion rates have a direct correlation to an offense performing well, says Captain Obvious. Therefore, I decided to delve deep into the 2009 box scores and analyze our 3rd downs.
A few weeks ago, I recalled someone saying you should never investigate something if you believe you already know the answer. Your bias will lead you to skew how you look at the data and you will develop an unbalanced analysis. I have been pretty 50/50 on BA, defending him for good offensive production, but realizing his flaws in inconsistent play calling. Hopefully, my analysis is as level as possible. Let's dive into the numbers after the jump.
Basic 3rd Down Statistics:
| Attempts | 199 |
| Converted | 78 |
| Success Rate | 39.20% |
| 4th down attempts | 11 |
| 4th down converted | 8 |
| 4th down success rate | 72.72% |
| Combined attempts | 210 |
| Combined converted | 86 |
| Combined success rate | 40.95% |
Situational Down Distances:
Down & 1: 37
Down & 2: 15 (3rd & 1 or 2 will be considered a "Short Down")
Down & 3: 9
Down & 4: 16
Down & 5: 19 (3rd & 5 or less will be considered a "Manageable Down")
Down & 6+: 114
Short Downs
| Attempts | 51 |
| Converted | 31 |
| Success Rate | 60.78 |
| Run | 32 |
| Run Converted | 21 |
| Run Success Rate | 65.63 |
| Pass | 19 |
| Pass Converted | 11 |
| Pass Success Rate | 57.89 |
QB Sneaks: 10, 7 converted, 70% success rate
Just by looking at these numbers you would think they are great, considering they are all successful more than half the time. However, on short distances the defense is always more likely to fail. Luckily, for me the guys at Advanced NFL Stats are fanatics about every niche of NFL stats. They have done an awesome 3 Part break down of "Play Calling on 3rd and Short" that I will reference (Part 2 and Part 3).
Clearly, the best way to convert on 3rd and short is to square up and run right up the middle with a good push from your center and guards. However, as with all of football play-calling, if you become predictable you will not be successful. The other team will load the box and stop the run if they know it is coming. Therefore, a good OC must mix it up with occasional passes. The pertinent question then becomes: how occasionally is good? Here is a look at a chart of conversion rates according to yards "to go":
It appears that the average conversion rate on 3rd and short runs is about 66% and on passing it is about 56-57%. That is roughly an average success rate of about 61% on 3rd and short. Looking back at our 2009 Short Down conversions, we can ascertain that our conversion rates were about average, with our passing conversion rate a bit above average. That drops us from a our perceived exceptional Short Down conversions to an average Short Down team. In my opinion, an average team is an 8-8 or 9-7 team that just misses the playoffs.
Manageable Downs
Attempts: 96
Converted: 55
Success Rate: 57.29%
Considering the success rate for an average 3rd and 5 is nearer to 40% and 3rd and 1 success rates are near 66%, I can make a huge assumption that a good success rate on a Manageable Down would be around 50-54%. That means that the 2009 Steelers were above average on 3rd and 5 or shorter. As long as the Steelers utilized 1st and 2nd down well, they had a very good chance of bringing up a new set of downs. However, with nearly 54.29% of their 3rd downs being over 5 yards, that was not as often the case. Anyway, I would assume that the Steelers had such a high success rate on Manageable Downs is because they were so comfortable passing the ball. That is evident when you consider 60% of the plays called on Manageable Downs were designed pass plays.
Breakdown by Quarter
Conversion Rates by Quarter:
1st: 39.29
2nd: 43.48
3rd: 35.71
4th: 43.33
OT: 40.00
Did anyone actually believe our offense did anything successfully in the 4th quarter this year? Apparently, they were very successful with 3rd downs in the 4th quarter, as well as the 2nd quarter. A good reason for this is how well the offense performed in the 2 minute drill as well as "crunch" time (when the team needed a score). Converting crucial third downs is the key to having a good 2 minute offense. How could an offense with such a high production on 3rd down in the 4th quarter lose so many games in that quarter? Well I did not break down the defensive numbers, but I would assume opposing teams had a much higher 3rd down conversion rate in the 4th, probably around 50%. Off the top of my head I recall two huge 3rd downs that Cincinnati connected on and one gigantic 3rd down pass for Ray Rice in Baltimore.
Anyway, the must curious number to me is the awful 3rd quarter conversion rate. On our 5 game losing streak we were outscored 16-6 in the 3rd quarter and gave up a lead in several of those games. I can surmise that the team might have gotten comfortable leads and then pulled their foot off of the gas pedal. That allowed our opponents to creep back before we hit the "oh shit" button late in the game (sometimes too late). Consistency was clearly a problem with our offense this year and these fluctuating numbers reflect that. A big call to Bruce Arians is to have a stable offense that still has the ability to gash you with one big Mike Wallace catch or Santonio Holmes run after the catch. However, the crucial aspect must be a good balance and use of the "big play." That means no more calling a deep pass on 3rd and short in the 4th quarter, Bruce.
Best 3rd (or 4th) Down Contributors
These numbers were pretty interesting, I thought. I was curious to find out who was the best contributor on these downs, or who got the most 1st downs on 3rd and 4th down. I would have assumed that Hines Ward and Heath Miller led the pack with Rashard Mendenhall just behind him because of the considerable looks he gets on Short Downs. However, leading the pack was Santonio Holmes with 19 first downs, the rook Mike Wallace had 15, Ben Roethlisberger had 11 (7 QB sneaks and 4 scrambles), Mendenhall had 10, Ward had 9, and Miller had 8. Quite the opposite of what I expected, but I am glad to see two of our very good WRs getting open when they matter most. Other contributors included: Mewelde Moore 5, Dennis Dixon 3, Willie Parker 1, Matt Spaeth 1, Carey Davis 1, Tyler Grisham 1.
Random Stats
- We had 13 penalties called against us on 3rd down. Four players had 2 called on them: Willie Colon, Chris Kemoeatu, Justin Hartwig, and Ward. The players with 1 were: Trai Essex, Wallace, Darnell Stapleton, Miller, and Moore.
- Ben was sacked 23 times on 3rd down, that is 11.56% of his 3rd downs, and 14.11% of his drop backs on 3rd down. That seems like a low percent, but to put it into perspective the league average is 6.1% of drop backs are sacks and Ben's number for the year was 9%. I think we can blame BA's empty backfields for that and a few on Ben holding the ball too long.. Lastly, consider that Ben was sacked 5 times on 3rd down in the Cleveland game (41.67% of drop backs on 3rd down for that game)!!!
- We had 9 touchdowns on 3rd down this year and only 5 interceptions.
Conclusion
What can somebody even conclude from all this mumbo jumbo? Well for one, we can conclude that I am extremely lazy in my statistical breakdown because I promised I would do this around the end of the year. However, that is neither here nor there.
When I was running through all of these numbers I kept Bruce Arians's play calling in mind. I think it is safe to say that many people believe that BA's play calling on 3rd down was stale, awful, and predictable (among a myriad of other nasty adjectives that I will not repeat). I am going to agree and disagree with you. First, let me express why I disagree with you. Overall, BA's 3rd down conversion rate was about average in the league. We may expect more than average, but you must consider there were teams worse than us with good offenses (NYJ, Arizona, and Philly all playoff teams). Additionally, our offense was above average when it came to converting on Manageable Downs and about average on Short Down conversions. Therefore, we are not the worst team in the league when it comes to short yardage. Moreover, you would actually be surprised in the difference between this years 3rd down conversion rate compared to 2008. As mentioned we were around 39.2% and in 2008 we were about 41%. In other words, that is roughly 3 or 4 more conversions out of those 199 third downs.
Where I tend to agree with you is the lack of consistency in BA's play calling. It seemed that on far too many crucial third downs, whether they be 4th quarter or just red zone 3rd downs, BA seemed to pull some whacky crap out of his hat occasionally. Just consider that Jeff Reed had 8 sub 29 yard field goals (roughly that is the red zone). That is unacceptable for an "elite" offense. Too many times, especially against the Bengals, we gave up 4 points on odd third down play calls. Additionally, BA seemed to have a fascination with throwing bombs on 3rd down. I will not completely object to that, because you can catch a safety cheating into the box on 3rd and short. However, making that play call late in games or on "must score" drives is absolutely unacceptable. Even when this play is successful, the huge flaw is that it leaves a ton of time left on the clock. How many times did we see our defense put back on the field too soon after a good stop? Bruce Arians, I think I speak for a lot of us when I say be smart, concise, and unpredictable on 3rd down. Make the goal of 3rd down to get a fresh set of downs and not a canvas to display Ben's arm.
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Moneyball
Unless youe name is Bill Belicheck it is tough to apply statistical measures on how you manage a game. Football is about execution. Regardless if the team runs or pass it is imperative that the 11 men on the field execute. The better the team is at doing this the better the team will be. What your stats bring to light is that a good balance of run and pass are imperative to keep a D on their heels. BA caught plenty of flack from our fanbase about “throwing so much on 3rd and short” the statistics will tell you that we were one of teams with the top run ratios in that situation.
by TheCommish on Mar 16, 2010 10:03 AM EDT via mobile reply actions
I agree with you
But there is a correlation between predictability and success, especially on 3rd down. If you run it too often and the other team picks up on that they will load the box. Then even if all 11 execute well, you will not get much of a push against 1 or 2 extra defenders and your success rate will drop. A smart OC or QB should be able to catch the defense cheating and adjust the play to expose that. There are no numbers to quantify if we are successful at this or not. I’d argue that BA might be stubborn and reluctant to change his call, but when Ben is in control in a no huddle we have more success. I could probably break that down, but it would take too much work to examine when we were in a no-huddle vs. base offense. However, I think it is safe to say that our consistency could improve on 3rd and short and we may have won 1 or 2 more games.
With the 18th pick of the 2010 NFL Draft the Pittsburgh Steelers select Florida QB Tim Tebow. (not a RB!)
by John Stephens on Mar 16, 2010 10:20 AM EDT up reply actions
A smart QB
should audible into a more successful play when he sees the defense. If he sees a rush there is nothing wrong with audible to a run or draw, that is sometimes how you get your big plays, if the running back can slip through while the rushers are pursuing the QB.
Steelers football is 60 mins.
by tannofsteel84 on Mar 16, 2010 10:28 AM EDT up reply actions
Agreed
With the 18th pick of the 2010 NFL Draft the Pittsburgh Steelers select Florida QB Tim Tebow. (not a RB!)
by John Stephens on Mar 16, 2010 10:29 AM EDT up reply actions
good write up though
love the stats.
Steelers football is 60 mins.
by tannofsteel84 on Mar 16, 2010 11:16 AM EDT up reply actions
Thanks
Wish I had been less lazy and gotten it out earlier
With the 18th pick of the 2010 NFL Draft the Pittsburgh Steelers select Florida QB Tim Tebow. (not a RB!)
by John Stephens on Mar 16, 2010 11:21 AM EDT up reply actions
So we had 96
manageable 3rd downs and a 114 unmanageable 3rd downs. That means we weren’t doing well enough on 1st and 2nd down. Can we say too many 1st down sacks? Those are killer and Ben can reduce those sacks then we can be in more manageable 3rd downs which means more conversions. That also means running a little be more on 1st and 2nd downs.
Steelers football is 60 mins.
YOU CAN'T TALK ABOUT 1st and 2nd DOWN HERE!!!
Haha, just joking. Yeah, as I said, we need to manage our first two downs better to produce better on 3rd down. I would like for us to have at least 50% of our 3rd downs be “manageable”.
With the 18th pick of the 2010 NFL Draft the Pittsburgh Steelers select Florida QB Tim Tebow. (not a RB!)
by John Stephens on Mar 16, 2010 10:30 AM EDT up reply actions
Hey
Good job by the way. We got all that SPAM outta here from earlier. I was beginning to think this was the online shoppers’ guide site.
"A pessimist sees the difficulty in every opportunity; an optimist sees the opportunity in every difficulty." - Winston Churchill
by PixburghArn on Mar 16, 2010 11:11 AM EDT up reply actions
Haha
That is like 4 spam bans within 2 days.
With the 18th pick of the 2010 NFL Draft the Pittsburgh Steelers select Florida QB Tim Tebow. (not a RB!)
by John Stephens on Mar 16, 2010 11:21 AM EDT up reply actions
for real
"A pessimist sees the difficulty in every opportunity; an optimist sees the opportunity in every difficulty." - Winston Churchill
by PixburghArn on Mar 16, 2010 11:24 AM EDT up reply actions
hmmmm . . . so the the offensive problems are more global than anything . . .
the conclusion here is that the steelers must do a better job of managing first, second, third, and even fourth downs (i’m out of downs!) . . . which brings me to . . . ARIANS MUST GO!! . . . whoa nellie!! (nod to keith jackson – not the tight end, arians!!) . . . that felt sooooooo good . . .
2 minute drill 3d downs.
I think if you are going to do an analysis on BA’s play calling you should leave out the 3d downs during the 2 minute drill playing time. Because he QB makes the final call during the 2 minute drill.
The more I learn -The less I think I know! Just enjoy reading and sharing.
That is not always necessarily true and it is difficult for me to break down since the NFL game books only really tell you if it is shotgun or not (not whether an audible was called, etc). Also, BA designs all of the plays that Ben calls in a 2minute drill.
With the 18th pick of the 2010 NFL Draft the Pittsburgh Steelers select Florida QB Tim Tebow. (not a RB!)
by John Stephens on Mar 16, 2010 11:24 AM EDT up reply actions
Play designs
True BA designs all the plays and Ben has a list of plays for the 2 minute drill. 1st and maybe 2nd down calls are BA’s. But as the drill progresses. Ben chooses which plays to call and or audible.
The more I learn -The less I think I know! Just enjoy reading and sharing.
by steeler junky on Mar 17, 2010 7:19 AM EDT up reply actions
Play Designs 2
I have never had an issue with BA’s Play designs, other than his choice of the blocker he puts in the full back position on short yardage plays. He should use a D lineman instead of a TE. But rather the predictability of his 2nd and 3d down play calling. For many of us that follow the Steelers from home, Often know what play is going to to be run on 3d downs. And if we at home know, so does the opposing defense.
The more I learn -The less I think I know! Just enjoy reading and sharing.
by steeler junky on Mar 17, 2010 7:49 AM EDT up reply actions
He actually should use a FB
Someone whose specific job is to blow people up and set up Mendy for a nice hole.
I have argued with people about this before. I would bet good money you cannot call the play the Steelers are going to run on 3rd down more than 40% or 50% of the time. I don’t mean calling “oh it’s a run”. Anyone could do that and be right 50% of the time. I mean calling “run up the middle off the right guard” or “quick slant to Holmes” or “run to the left behind Starks”, etc.
With the 18th pick of the 2010 NFL Draft the Pittsburgh Steelers select Florida QB Tim Tebow. (not a RB!)
by John Stephens on Mar 17, 2010 8:23 AM EDT up reply actions
You argued that with me
and if he keeps it up, when we go to the game I’ll show you. :)
Steelers football is 60 mins.
by tannofsteel84 on Mar 17, 2010 9:15 AM EDT up reply actions
Agreed to a point
Anytime it is a known run the linebackers don’t have to drop into coverage and execution becomes key. Quick slants and WR screens are often audibles when the run don’t look like a good option.
If the LB,s know 50% of the time they don’t have to drop into mid area coverage. That is 25% of the time too much.
The more I learn -The less I think I know! Just enjoy reading and sharing.
by steeler junky on Mar 17, 2010 11:29 AM EDT up reply actions
If you have the LBs confused 50% of the time you will most likely have a very, very good 3rd down conversion rate. With the LBs confused I like our chances of winning a 5 on 4 (or 3) to push for a 1st down on 3rd and short.
With the 18th pick of the 2010 NFL Draft the Pittsburgh Steelers select Florida QB Tim Tebow. (not a RB!)
by John Stephens on Mar 17, 2010 11:57 AM EDT up reply actions
BA
My point; like I said I do not have a problem with the play designs. Onley That in an audible or two minute offense BA didn’t call the play Ben Did. Which means the order, arrangement and timing of the play calls can be as important as the design of the play. In the two minute offense as you know Ben has a list of plays BA designed, But Ben calls the plays in the order he wants , Not BA.
The more I learn -The less I think I know! Just enjoy reading and sharing.
by steeler junky on Mar 19, 2010 9:04 PM EDT up reply actions
I think you may be right...
But are we sure of that? With the advancement of radio contact in the helmets of quarterbacks the role of an offensive coordinator may be more involved in a two minute or hurry up offense then ever before. Like I said, I think you’re right, but are we sure?
"One important key to success is self-confidence. An important key to self-confidence is preperation."
-Arthur Ashe
by NYSteelersFan4 on Mar 20, 2010 11:01 AM EDT up reply actions
I know how an audible work. My point is that even when Ben audibles, he audibles into a play that BA designed.
With the 18th pick of the 2010 NFL Draft the Pittsburgh Steelers select Florida QB Tim Tebow. (not a RB!)
by John Stephens on Mar 17, 2010 8:20 AM EDT up reply actions
Great Job.
Is inspiring me to go back and finish my first down report I was working on. interesting stuff there too. I think I’ll go finish it.
sorry
deleted that info
"A pessimist sees the difficulty in every opportunity; an optimist sees the opportunity in every difficulty." - Winston Churchill
if you post your credit card info on 4chan I think they can help you out
With the 18th pick of the 2010 NFL Draft the Pittsburgh Steelers select Florida QB Tim Tebow. (not a RB!)
by John Stephens on Mar 16, 2010 2:31 PM EDT up reply actions
be sure to add the 3 digit coade on the back
"A pessimist sees the difficulty in every opportunity; an optimist sees the opportunity in every difficulty." - Winston Churchill
code too
"A pessimist sees the difficulty in every opportunity; an optimist sees the opportunity in every difficulty." - Winston Churchill
well
they may need your social also
Steelers football is 60 mins.
by tannofsteel84 on Mar 16, 2010 2:43 PM EDT up reply actions
yes
great use of the double vowel phonics
"A pessimist sees the difficulty in every opportunity; an optimist sees the opportunity in every difficulty." - Winston Churchill
Nice post Johnny...
I started it earlier, had some work to do, and came back and it was gone. I should have known to look up in the Rec-Sec. Good stuff man.
"One important key to success is self-confidence. An important key to self-confidence is preperation."
-Arthur Ashe
Thanks
Next year I am keeping the stats game by game. It will make life easier.
With the 18th pick of the 2010 NFL Draft the Pittsburgh Steelers select Florida QB Tim Tebow. (not a RB!)
by John Stephens on Mar 16, 2010 3:56 PM EDT up reply actions
I'm not a number cruncher...
But I plan on doing something similar. Play by play notes or something like that. I really want something to go back to later on that will remind me of the little things that happened (playtype, passing options, defensive scheme, etc.). I know NFL.com has the play by play, but it’s just not enough. The thing I really want to track is playcalling.
"One important key to success is self-confidence. An important key to self-confidence is preperation."
-Arthur Ashe
by NYSteelersFan4 on Mar 16, 2010 4:13 PM EDT up reply actions
Yeah
Hopefully I will have DVR, because I cannot keep track of that while watching it live. I wish there was a way to watch old game tape. I’d love to be able to analyze the zone blitz more. I’ve read up a lot on it recently, but haven’t seen it in action since reading. The NFL is too stingy with it’s videos though.
With the 18th pick of the 2010 NFL Draft the Pittsburgh Steelers select Florida QB Tim Tebow. (not a RB!)
by John Stephens on Mar 16, 2010 4:18 PM EDT up reply actions
Once again, Johnny got bored at work
Great job once again, John.
Weren’t you supposed to do this over a month ago, or something? Just pitchin’ ya sh1t, man.
"OOH! A piece of candy. OOH! A piece of candy."
-James Woods
Actually, I’ve been working on this one at home before I go to sleep. Just took me awhile to put it all together. It was well over a month ago…haha
With the 18th pick of the 2010 NFL Draft the Pittsburgh Steelers select Florida QB Tim Tebow. (not a RB!)
by John Stephens on Mar 17, 2010 8:48 AM EDT up reply actions
Yeah, I remember you saying something about this post
a while ago when I told someone the Steelers were in the top 10 of 3rd and short conversions.
BTW, I will ALWAYS say you were bored at work, well, most of the time anyway. Because it’s funnier than saying bored at home before sleep…
"OOH! A piece of candy. OOH! A piece of candy."
-James Woods
by Steel Spike on Mar 17, 2010 11:22 AM EDT up reply actions
Well I am bored at work…
With the 18th pick of the 2010 NFL Draft the Pittsburgh Steelers select Florida QB Tim Tebow. (not a RB!)
by John Stephens on Mar 17, 2010 11:25 AM EDT up reply actions
If you're bored, wander over to NFL.com
and vote for the “best draft picks”. I have 23 votes racked up for Mean Joe, 20 for the Blonde Bomber and Iron Jack, 13 for Woodson and Franco Harris, 12 for the Bus (he was drafted by the Rams, but he is a Steeler), ETC…
"OOH! A piece of candy. OOH! A piece of candy."
-James Woods
by Steel Spike on Mar 17, 2010 11:55 AM EDT up reply actions
I don’t like those types of things. It is basically “who has the most fans that reads this website”?
With the 18th pick of the 2010 NFL Draft the Pittsburgh Steelers select Florida QB Tim Tebow. (not a RB!)
by John Stephens on Mar 17, 2010 11:58 AM EDT up reply actions
Yeah, but it's still a bit of fun
and a huge time waster. Besides, I like seeing Steelers beating out other people.
"OOH! A piece of candy. OOH! A piece of candy."
-James Woods
by Steel Spike on Mar 17, 2010 12:06 PM EDT up reply actions
Nice statistics on this post.....
I think we need a short yardage back. We took it for granted so many years because we had the greatest short yardage back in history aka “The Bus” I feel that the Steelers may be looking for one on draft day……
It comes down to this...
Players, not plays
No, no it doesn’t. If we put me out there making play calls with the best players in the NFL we would lose a lot.
With the 18th pick of the 2010 NFL Draft the Pittsburgh Steelers select Florida QB Tim Tebow. (not a RB!)
by John Stephens on Mar 17, 2010 10:04 AM EDT up reply actions
You miss the point
They aren’t going to put you out there because you are unqualified. NFL coaches know infinitely more about Xs and Os than the common fan. That’s why the common fan has no business criticizing play calling. It always comes down to execution. Players, not plays.
by hritzm31608 on Mar 17, 2010 10:24 AM EDT up reply actions
Not always
"A pessimist sees the difficulty in every opportunity; an optimist sees the opportunity in every difficulty." - Winston Churchill
by PixburghArn on Mar 17, 2010 10:31 AM EDT up reply actions
No I get your point
And I said it before to the commish in this thread, even if all 11 of your players execute perfectly it does not always translate to success. There is an element of surprise and luck in the NFL. The team that executes consistently throughout the game is not always the team that wins, also called “Any Given Sunday”.
With the 18th pick of the 2010 NFL Draft the Pittsburgh Steelers select Florida QB Tim Tebow. (not a RB!)
by John Stephens on Mar 17, 2010 10:33 AM EDT up reply actions
Of course
Here’s the thing though. You are talking about the exception, not the rule. Any NFL head coach would take the most talented players over the surprise and luck of play calling.
by hritzm31608 on Mar 17, 2010 10:36 AM EDT up reply actions
So you are saying the most talented team always wins?
The difference in talent NFLwide is not vast. They are pretty much close with an exception of the All-Pro and the backup of the backup.
"A pessimist sees the difficulty in every opportunity; an optimist sees the opportunity in every difficulty." - Winston Churchill
by PixburghArn on Mar 17, 2010 10:39 AM EDT up reply actions
By the way
picking talent over luck is a nobrainer
"A pessimist sees the difficulty in every opportunity; an optimist sees the opportunity in every difficulty." - Winston Churchill
by PixburghArn on Mar 17, 2010 10:40 AM EDT up reply actions
It's not an exception
It happens quite often in the NFL. And I never argued not to take talented players, that doesn’t make any sense. And you cannot exactly “take” luck. Luck just happens.
Anyway, my initial point is that every team has “players” but good play calling to utilize that talent is important. Is our defense continuously good because of the great players it has? Partly, but it is also great because of the way LeBeau schemes. The same is true with our offense and BA.
With the 18th pick of the 2010 NFL Draft the Pittsburgh Steelers select Florida QB Tim Tebow. (not a RB!)
by John Stephens on Mar 17, 2010 10:46 AM EDT up reply actions
Yes it is
Luck and play calling are the exception to the rule of players being more important than plays. You must have the talent to execute the plays.
by hritzm31608 on Mar 17, 2010 11:29 AM EDT up reply actions
Also
I never said that you said not to take talented players. All I am saying is that more often than not, the most talented team wins the game. That is the rule.
by hritzm31608 on Mar 17, 2010 11:32 AM EDT up reply actions
It depends on what you call "talent"
You can be more talented than another but be in a system that makes you a worse player. You made a statement and said it’s the rule. What do you measure talent with? How do you show the results of that test. Give something to back that up.
"A pessimist sees the difficulty in every opportunity; an optimist sees the opportunity in every difficulty." - Winston Churchill
by PixburghArn on Mar 17, 2010 11:57 AM EDT up reply actions
Huh?
Let’s just look at the Steelers this year:
The Chiefs, the Raiders, the Bears, the Browns.
More games around the NFL happened where the less talented team won: Oakland over Philly, Denver, Cincinnati, Denver, TB over GB, NO, Carolina over Minn, Ariz, Bills over Jets, Carolina, Dolphins, Cleveland winning 5 games, Jacksonville beating Hou, NYJ, and Ten, STL won a game, Detroit won 2 games.
A lot of less talented teams beat more talented teams. I would say this happens because of luck and good play calling.
With the 18th pick of the 2010 NFL Draft the Pittsburgh Steelers select Florida QB Tim Tebow. (not a RB!)
by John Stephens on Mar 17, 2010 12:08 PM EDT up reply actions
Good point Johnny
"A pessimist sees the difficulty in every opportunity; an optimist sees the opportunity in every difficulty." - Winston Churchill
by PixburghArn on Mar 17, 2010 12:10 PM EDT up reply actions
Who won the Super Bowl?
Was it Oakland? Again, the teams with the best players win. Players, not plays.
Also
Are you suggesting that the least talented teams made the playoffs? The teams with the best players made the playoffs. Players, not plays.
Yes. lesser talented teams made the PO's
We are more talented than Baltimore, Bengals and the Jets. Patriots of course, and GB…There were a lot of teams less talented than us that made the playoffs.
"OOH! A piece of candy. OOH! A piece of candy."
-James Woods
When the Patriots were winning SBs
They didn’t have more talented players than everyone else, they just had players that fit their system.
Troy Brown, Ted Johnson, Tebucky Jones, Randall Gay, Stephen Neal, David Givens, Deion Branch, Teddy Bruschi, Christian Fauria, Eugene Wilson, Tom Ashworth, Antowain Smith.
Those were all significant contributors and none of them were superstars. When most of them left the team they amounted to nothing with their new teams.
Everyone in the NFL has talent. Of course there are players that are much more talented than others, but you win with players who fit your system.
by StoneColdSteel on Mar 17, 2010 2:37 PM EDT up reply actions
Thank you
I have head congestion to day and I’m having problems thinking. This is what I was trying to say, (I think if you put all of my comments together you’ll see) but I kept getting off course. I was trying to say a little more but if I try to say all of it I’ll end up babbling. My head hurts…….
"A pessimist sees the difficulty in every opportunity; an optimist sees the opportunity in every difficulty." - Winston Churchill
I've been sick for three days now
And I never get sick.
by StoneColdSteel on Mar 17, 2010 5:32 PM EDT up reply actions
I guess you never shoulda said never
With the 18th pick of the 2010 NFL Draft the Pittsburgh Steelers select Florida QB Tim Tebow. (not a RB!)
by John Stephens on Mar 17, 2010 5:33 PM EDT up reply actions
I feel a little better today but
I still don’t feel like myself….
I feel like Denzel Washington I think
"A pessimist sees the difficulty in every opportunity; an optimist sees the opportunity in every difficulty." - Winston Churchill
My head's just starting to get congested
but I get like this every spring when the snow is gone and all the snow mold and crap they put on the roads during the winter is blowing around.
I may be old but I... oh d*mn, I forgot what I was going to say.
by Cold_Old_Steelers_Fan on Mar 22, 2010 4:59 PM EDT up reply actions
They also had video cameras that fit their system more...
"OOH! A piece of candy. OOH! A piece of candy."
-James Woods
Well worth the wait
Thanks, Johnny for the insight. While data never paints the full picture, such as BA’s “whacky crap”, it certainly reveals the “lack of consistency.” However, it clearly shows the framework of and for a highly successful offense.
I’m a middle-of-the-road guy, like you, when it comes to BA. I don’t think he is as bad as many on here believe. If he puts an end to the stoopid stuff (therein lies the problem, Johnny), this (his) offense has the potential to be the top offense in the league.
Thanks
What’s with everyone changing their handle (screen name) by the way?
With the 18th pick of the 2010 NFL Draft the Pittsburgh Steelers select Florida QB Tim Tebow. (not a RB!)
by John Stephens on Mar 17, 2010 10:05 AM EDT up reply actions
oh
I thought you were cgolden…same icon
With the 18th pick of the 2010 NFL Draft the Pittsburgh Steelers select Florida QB Tim Tebow. (not a RB!)
by John Stephens on Mar 18, 2010 8:13 PM EDT up reply actions
Yeah, isn't it showtime and acrollet that have the same avi?
"OOH! A piece of candy. OOH! A piece of candy."
-James Woods
by Steel Spike on Mar 18, 2010 11:52 PM EDT up reply actions
Question
When did Belichick become a genius?
Never
"A pessimist sees the difficulty in every opportunity; an optimist sees the opportunity in every difficulty." - Winston Churchill
by PixburghArn on Mar 17, 2010 10:40 AM EDT up reply actions
He knows how to scheme a defense
And he stays unpredictable. And he knew how to cheat without getting caught for awhile. Maybe not a genius, but he knows how to play the game.
With the 18th pick of the 2010 NFL Draft the Pittsburgh Steelers select Florida QB Tim Tebow. (not a RB!)
by John Stephens on Mar 17, 2010 10:48 AM EDT up reply actions
He's definitely not a slouch
"A pessimist sees the difficulty in every opportunity; an optimist sees the opportunity in every difficulty." - Winston Churchill
by PixburghArn on Mar 17, 2010 10:50 AM EDT up reply actions
Belichick
The answer to the question I posed is simple. Belichick became the so called “genius” when he got the players, most importantly, not Tom Braday. Noboby was calling him a genius in Cleveland because he didn’t have the talent. Players, not plays.
Yeah, and he wasn't cheating with video cameras...
"OOH! A piece of candy. OOH! A piece of candy."
-James Woods
by Steel Spike on Mar 17, 2010 11:53 AM EDT up reply actions
Brady didn't become what he was until Belichick
You can’t prove otherwise. He was a backup in college.
"A pessimist sees the difficulty in every opportunity; an optimist sees the opportunity in every difficulty." - Winston Churchill
by PixburghArn on Mar 17, 2010 11:58 AM EDT up reply actions
I guess they were made for each other :)
Steelers football is 60 mins.
by tannofsteel84 on Mar 17, 2010 12:04 PM EDT up reply actions
Like peanut butter and jelly
"A pessimist sees the difficulty in every opportunity; an optimist sees the opportunity in every difficulty." - Winston Churchill
by PixburghArn on Mar 17, 2010 12:17 PM EDT up reply actions
Lamb and Tuna fish?
"One important key to success is self-confidence. An important key to self-confidence is preperation."
-Arthur Ashe
by NYSteelersFan4 on Mar 17, 2010 12:40 PM EDT up reply actions
sandpaper and alcohol
"A pessimist sees the difficulty in every opportunity; an optimist sees the opportunity in every difficulty." - Winston Churchill
by PixburghArn on Mar 17, 2010 12:44 PM EDT up reply actions
It's peanutbutter jelly time!
"OOH! A piece of candy. OOH! A piece of candy."
-James Woods
by Steel Spike on Mar 17, 2010 12:53 PM EDT up reply actions
See
Off topic has to be cheeky and fun
With the 18th pick of the 2010 NFL Draft the Pittsburgh Steelers select Florida QB Tim Tebow. (not a RB!)
by John Stephens on Mar 17, 2010 12:56 PM EDT up reply actions
You can always count on me for cheeky and fun.
"OOH! A piece of candy. OOH! A piece of candy."
-James Woods
So let me get this straight...
You are basically arguing that Belichick is the reason why Brady is one of the greatest clutch time quarterbacks to ever play the game and it has nothing to do with Brady’s talent. If that’s the case, why didn’t Belichick create a 3 time Super Bowl winning QB in Cleveland?
Go somewhere else if you want to expound on Brady's merits
or Bilicheats.
"OOH! A piece of candy. OOH! A piece of candy."
-James Woods
Just drop it
No one wants to argue on this St Patty’s Day. Let me buy you a green beer
With the 18th pick of the 2010 NFL Draft the Pittsburgh Steelers select Florida QB Tim Tebow. (not a RB!)
by John Stephens on Mar 17, 2010 1:35 PM EDT up reply actions
What is Brady doing now?
How did that work out for him in the playoffs?
"A pessimist sees the difficulty in every opportunity; an optimist sees the opportunity in every difficulty." - Winston Churchill
to answer you question
because they wasn’t recording other teams in cleveland
Steelers football is 60 mins.
by tannofsteel84 on Mar 17, 2010 2:12 PM EDT up reply actions
good answer
"A pessimist sees the difficulty in every opportunity; an optimist sees the opportunity in every difficulty." - Winston Churchill
Brady was a backup for a while
But he did play quite a bit his last year.
by StoneColdSteel on Mar 17, 2010 2:38 PM EDT up reply actions
He still sucked :)
"A pessimist sees the difficulty in every opportunity; an optimist sees the opportunity in every difficulty." - Winston Churchill
Check Wikipedia, they have his info from college, if you can’t remember or didn’t watch him. He was very good, but was overshadowed by the Drew Henson Hype machine.
by Phantaskippy on Mar 17, 2010 8:38 PM EDT up reply actions
he still sucked :)
"A pessimist sees the difficulty in every opportunity; an optimist sees the opportunity in every difficulty." - Winston Churchill
And by backup you mean he won 20 of 25 games he started, and led the team to two bowl wins while setting Uof M passing records.
Just because all the idiots wanted Drew Henson to start doesn’t mean he did.
by Phantaskippy on Mar 17, 2010 8:37 PM EDT up reply actions
He still sucked
"A pessimist sees the difficulty in every opportunity; an optimist sees the opportunity in every difficulty." - Winston Churchill
By the way
He sounds like he was about as good as Rex Grossman by the stats you put up…ok maybe Testaverde.
"A pessimist sees the difficulty in every opportunity; an optimist sees the opportunity in every difficulty." - Winston Churchill
I'm done with this argument
This is absurd and has nothing to do with the topic I posted about.
With the 18th pick of the 2010 NFL Draft the Pittsburgh Steelers select Florida QB Tim Tebow. (not a RB!)
by John Stephens on Mar 17, 2010 12:10 PM EDT up reply actions
You oppose threadjacking? *gasp*
"OOH! A piece of candy. OOH! A piece of candy."
-James Woods
by Steel Spike on Mar 17, 2010 12:13 PM EDT up reply actions
No I just oppose this argument that won’t end.
With the 18th pick of the 2010 NFL Draft the Pittsburgh Steelers select Florida QB Tim Tebow. (not a RB!)
by John Stephens on Mar 17, 2010 12:13 PM EDT up reply actions
I hate arguing things that are strictly based on opinion
It never goes anywhere, except both parties get pissed.
"OOH! A piece of candy. OOH! A piece of candy."
-James Woods
by Steel Spike on Mar 17, 2010 12:15 PM EDT up reply actions
Does to!
"One important key to success is self-confidence. An important key to self-confidence is preperation."
-Arthur Ashe
by NYSteelersFan4 on Mar 17, 2010 2:36 PM EDT up reply actions
I hate you NYSteelersFan4
I can’t believe how wrong you are.
by Chicago Steeler on Mar 17, 2010 4:00 PM EDT up reply actions
Cool it you two, you’re making everyone uncomfortable!
With the 18th pick of the 2010 NFL Draft the Pittsburgh Steelers select Florida QB Tim Tebow. (not a RB!)
by John Stephens on Mar 17, 2010 4:06 PM EDT up reply actions
No, you cool it Johnny...
This is between me and Chi-town.
You’re wrong-er, so there.
"One important key to success is self-confidence. An important key to self-confidence is preperation."
-Arthur Ashe
by NYSteelersFan4 on Mar 17, 2010 4:13 PM EDT up reply actions
You're all wrong
EVERYBODY. Except me of course.
by StoneColdSteel on Mar 17, 2010 5:36 PM EDT up reply actions
Don't tell me what I can tell Johnny...
And while you’re at it… Don’t tell me my business devil woman!
"One important key to success is self-confidence. An important key to self-confidence is preperation."
-Arthur Ashe
by NYSteelersFan4 on Mar 18, 2010 3:12 PM EDT up reply actions
interesting post
you obviously put in a lot of time to come up with those numbers.
one thing tho:
That means that the 2009 Steelers wereaboveaverage on 3rd and 5 or shorter.
i think the 1 yard conversion rates are falsely inflating the steeler’s “manageable down” conversion rate. more than 1/3 of the steelers manageable downs were in the 1 yard range where which naturally has the highest conversion rate. the steelers only had a 54.5% conversion rate with the 3-5 yard conversions.
regardless, i’m really surprised that steelers were even avg for 3rd downs. no way would i have thought we were average in general or that our rushing conversion rate was avg (thought it was far lower). nice findings.
-oh, & i wouldnt criticize ben for taking a sack on 3rd down (unless it puts us outta field goal range). it’s not IF ben takes sacks but when. ex) if it’s 3rd & goal from the 5 yard line, why throw away the ball if no one is open? i’d much rather him risk the sack & still have a shot a TD. now if it’s 3rd & 5 from the 25 a sack is a HUGE deal.
What?
if it’s 3rd & goal from the 5 yard line, why throw away the ball if no one is open? i’d much rather him risk the sack & still have a shot a TD. now if it’s 3rd & 5 from the 25 a sack is a HUGE deal.
No. Just no. Taking a sack on 3rd and goal from the five or throwing it away still results in the same thing… a field goal attempt. Actually they’re still not the same thing. If he throws it away we get a 22 yard field goal, as opposed to, after a sack (we’ll say for the sake of discussion that equals -5 yards, which is on the low side) a 27 yard field goal. Not the same thing. A sack is a loss, regardless of how or when they happen, and a loss is not good. Let’s not even think about the risk of a sack with a fumble forced.
"One important key to success is self-confidence. An important key to self-confidence is preperation."
-Arthur Ashe
by NYSteelersFan4 on Mar 19, 2010 2:22 PM EDT up reply actions
lol maybe i wasnt clear because it makes sense
ben’s in the pocket, it starts collapsing, no one is open. he has 2 options: 1) throw the ball away or 2) scramble buy himself more time and get the first down or more. he’s really good at doing the latter, you can’t deny that. how many times have we gotten TD’s or huge 3rd down pick ups with his “backyard” style play? too many to count. but, there is a time and place. i’d much rather have the extra few seconds to try to try to keep the drive alive/score more points if the risk of it might cost us 5-10 yards in field possession. the same thing goes with a 20 yard field goal compared to a 30 which are both very easy to make. BUT there are times when a sack takes us outta field goal range or makes an easier 35 yard field goal a much harder 45 yarder. that’s when he should throw it away.
and as for the fumble risk, you play to win the game. if we’re so worried about that then why even pass because we risk interceptions?
avg nfl kicker accuracy for field goals:
<20 yards: 100%
20-30: 100%
30-40: 88%
even an increase of a 12% risk of missing the field goal it’s totally worth a the odds of getting a TD by buying a few more seconds
I'll be honest...
I didn’t understand the first part fully, the second time you said it, it made a little more sense. I still don’t agree, because we’re not talking about non-sacks (ie the plays where he actually does get the ball away) we’re talking about real sacks. To say you don’t mind if he takes a sack inside the five, and say essentially, well, when it’s not a sack at least… I dunno. I guess I’m still confused.
Where did you get the numbers for kicker averages? I find it hard to believe the average percentage between 20 and 30 yards was 100%.
"One important key to success is self-confidence. An important key to self-confidence is preperation."
-Arthur Ashe
by NYSteelersFan4 on Mar 19, 2010 4:03 PM EDT up reply actions
nfl.com kicker stats
there were 8 missed field goals in the nfl last year 20-29 yards. there were over 250 field goals attempted from within that range. and i’m referring to the median. the avg will be something >97% (still pretty good).
i guess what i’m trying to say is there are times when ben is getting sacked because “he’s holding onto the ball too long & he should have thrown it away.” obviously, the reason why he’s holding onto the ball that long is he’s hoping to make a play but no one is open. but because he does that, he’s sometimes able to make a crazy play where he holds onto the ball for 10 seconds, dodges 3 tackles, lets his receivers get open and then makes a huge completion. where do you draw the line when he should try for that crazy play and when he should throw it away? he can’t see into the future and tell exactly what will happen, so if you want those great plays you’ll sometimes get those sacks. as a basic rule of thumb i think he should only do it on 3rd down when losing 10 yards isn’t a huge loss.
I noticed that just now somehow...
My bad on that.
Ben is an anomaly quarterback. This is the biggest problem with all of them. Whenever you have a quarterback who plays “outside the norm” there will always be a downside. With some there are big ups, with some there are big downs. Luckily Ben has done a good job of trending up.
"One important key to success is self-confidence. An important key to self-confidence is preperation."
-Arthur Ashe
by NYSteelersFan4 on Mar 19, 2010 8:47 PM EDT up reply actions
exactly my take
and thats why i think a high 3rd down sack rate isn’t that bad (if it’s the qb’s fault). it’s only bad from the opponents 20-35 and his own 15 or less….which ben does sometimes do. but that’s a different issue.
It doesn’t really matter if the 3rd and 1s are inflating the average, because it is doing that for the entire league. I compared their 3rd and 5 or less to the leagues 3rd and 5 or less.
With the 18th pick of the 2010 NFL Draft the Pittsburgh Steelers select Florida QB Tim Tebow. (not a RB!)
by John Stephens on Mar 19, 2010 2:59 PM EDT up reply actions
weren’t you just picking the middle ground between the 1 yard & 5 yard attempts for your league avg? that’s the avg if there were an equal number of attempts for each distance. but the steelers had far more 1 yard attempts than 5 yards.
(if i’m interpreting how you got your league avg correctly) ex) if by chance the steelers had only 1 yard attempts (no 2-5 yard attempts) then you can’t really say they were above avg for 1-5 attempts because your sample data is skewed since they never had to attempt any 2-5 yards 3rd downs. so you really don’t know the odds of them converting on those distances.
I will go through and do them this weekend yard by yard, but you will be surprised how successful the Steelers were on the middle range compared to the average.
With the 18th pick of the 2010 NFL Draft the Pittsburgh Steelers select Florida QB Tim Tebow. (not a RB!)
by John Stephens on Mar 19, 2010 3:16 PM EDT up reply actions
i’m not asking you to do that for the entire league. that seems a lot of work.
i did a lil estimating/calculations where i weighted the steelers conversion rate for each distance (1-5 yards) by the percentage of the total number of attempts. and i came up with a 54ish% conversion rate for the “manageable down” if the steelers attempted an equal amount at each distance. that’s at the upper level of your estimated avg range.
No, for 2009 Steelers
To Go, 09 Steelers AVG, League AVG (according to chart)
&1, 64.9, 65
&2, 53.3, 58
&3, 66.7, 55%
&4, 37.5%, 55%
&5, 52.6, 47%
Pretty good except for “And 4” to go. Oddly enough the Steelers were really successful on 3rd and 6.
With the 18th pick of the 2010 NFL Draft the Pittsburgh Steelers select Florida QB Tim Tebow. (not a RB!)
by John Stephens on Mar 19, 2010 3:41 PM EDT up reply actions
what i really like about stats
is that you and i can look at the same set of stats and come to different conclusions…
and i think those back up my take the steelers were only avg on 3rd down conversions ; )
2 assumptions: 1) the league sample size is large enough that there isn’t an inordinate number of att from a certain distance. 2) having a lot of 1 yard att or a lot of 5 yard att isn’t indicative of good/poor 3rd down conversion rate, but good/poor 1st/2nd down success.
if you take the avg conversion rate for each distance (1-5 yards):
Steelers: 55% league avg: 56%
if you weight it based upon the number of att the steelers had for each distance (1-5 yards):
steelers: 56.3% league avg:57.7%
avg for 3-5 yards:
steelers: 52.3% league avg: 52.3%
weighted 3-5 yards:
steelers: 50% league avg: 51.5%
the steelers were avg for manageable 3rd downs. still wouldn’t have thought that tho.
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