Guessing the 53-man Roster, Post-Draft

This is my still very early but now slightly revised attempt to guess next season's 53-man roster based on last year's squad, free agency, and the draft (previous attempt is here if anyone's curious). I've included a possible practice squad as well this time around.

Changes:

1). Jonathan Dwyer, 6th round pick out of Georgia Tech, is now penciled in as the third RB. I'd be surprised if anyone, excepting a real Redman lover, takes issue with that.

2). Very minor change - swapping David Johnson and Matt Spaeth on the TE depth chart, but I did it because consensus seems to be that Johnson should be ahead of Spaeth.

3). Thaddeus Gibson, 4th round pick out of Ohio State, is now penciled in as a deep depth OLB - where I'd indicated a "new body" would be in my previous version. He's raw and is going to need quite a bit more time to develop, but his upside is such that he might have too much potential to stow on the Pants Squad. Keith Butler was upfront about how he wasn't enamored with Gibson early on watching tape, but really liked how he consistently improved over the course of the season. After the coddling he probably had at Ohio State, hopefully Gibson responds well to Butler and doesn't follow the examples of previous Steelers conversion prospect Bruce Davis and fellow Buckeyes alum and ranking DE/OLB bust Vernon Gholston.

4). Bryant McFadden, reacquired from the Cardinals along with a bonus 6th round pick for the price of a 5th rounder, has replaced Joe Burnett as the second starting corner, Burnett bumps down to Keenan Lewis' spot as the dime back, and Lewis now takes the deep depth CB spot that was also where I'd indicated a "new body" would be in my previous version.

Offensive Breakdown:

QB (3) - Only question here is who goes to make room for Big Ben when he comes back from his dates with Dr Drew.

RB (3) - There's going to be a new body - likely Jonathan Dwyer - behind Mendenhall and Moore. I also don't think Logan will reprise his "returner only" role.

FB (1) - Assumption is that Summers is going to be healthy and back up to speed.

WR (6) - We're rolling deep because I don't know who to cut. Ward and Wallace are set in stone, and Randle El is even odds to make it back. After going out and grabbing Battle in free agency as well, and with his purported strong special teams play, I'd be pretty surprised if he was left off. As a third round pick, Sanders is high enough that he's a safe bet to make it as well. The question here is Sweed, and this humble, hopeful soul is optimistic that he will finally settle down and take the field as a gamer, so I've got to include him too.

TE (3) - Miller is a lock and I think Johnson is a safe bet as well. I think Spaeth will be back for one more year as well (much to the consternation of many people around here). I also threw in McHugh's name under my question mark category just so he isn't completely forgotten despite missing all of last year with an injury.

OL (9) - Breakdown is four tackles, four guards, and one center.

At tackle, Starks and Colon are the clear starters. Free agent Jonathan Scott - a Kugler signee - becomes the primary backup, and Essex returns to his familiar role of being the position flexible backup.

At guard, Kemoeatu is at left and I'm confident Pouncey can be penciled in at right. Foster has to be back after the solid year he had, and Urbik has to get at least another year to develop. Or not if he wants to be Tony Hills future roommate.

At center, Hartwig starts but behind him things are interesting. Stapleton is gone, Legursky remains, but with 9 guys already in the position unit, I think Legursky might get cut as well. That then makes Pouncey the presumed backup at his future spot.

Defensive Breakdown:

DL (7) - Breaks down into five ends and two nose tackles. Hampton and Hoke are back, it's a given. Smith and Keisel are locked back in to start, Hood continues to round into shape getting to rotate in, Eason gets called back as a "savvy veteran" for the rotation as well, and Harris (as we learned the hard way last year) is too good to try to stash away and merits a roster spot again. Kirschke stays in limbo without a contract and we thank him again and wish him the best.

LB (9) - This is actually kinda hard to pin down, in my mind. I believe we had 9 LBs after final cuts last year, so I'm using that as my start point. There are 7 locks: Silverback, Woodley, and now Worilds at OLB; and Farrior, Timmons, Fox, and Foote at ILB.

That leaves two spots, and I think one should go to a veteran and one should go to someone new. Fourth rounder Thaddeus Gibson could be that someone new, so what about someone old? Andre Frazier is a long-time reliable backup at OLB that knows LeBeau's system, but Patrick Bailey is a solid, hard-nosed special teamer that might be tougher than expected to leave off despite his lack of contributing as an actual LB (so far as I know). If neither Gibson nor some hotshot rookie free agent tears up camp, I think both might end up being back to round out the linebacking corps.

DB (9) - Position group is 9 deep out of necessity - five corners and four safeties. Ike is on one side, and McFadden should be back on the other. William Gay gets to return to the nickel role where he's more comfortable, Joe Burnett remains status quo behind Gay, and Keenan Lewis is back because of his size and hopefully because he's improved enough to get to see some field time. Some might say Anthony Madison should get a spot for his special teams play, but with the free agent signings (Battle and Allen) and draft picks like Worilds who are expected to excel on ST while they develop, I think Madison's inability to be a legitimate backup at corner tips the balance and he unfortunately gets cut again. Thanks for more than a decade of service Deshea.

Troy and Clark are starting at safety, that's a given. Will Allen is the primary back up and a special teams ace, and I'd be surprised if someone beats out Mundy for the last safety spot because despite his shortcomings thus far, he does have experience in the system and that does count for a bit. Former Thorpe winner Tyrone Carter, thank you for your years of service as well. (Note - we didn't take a safety in the second round because, among other reasons, there is likely no space on the roster for him)

Specialists Breakdown:

Not much to break down - we'll have Robopunter, a guy with funny hair who has very special interactions with paper towel dispensers, and someone not named James Harrison as longsnapper. But it should be noted that two years running now, Jared Retkofsky has been called midseason to replace an injured Greg Warren. Will we make it three? Will Warren's ACLs decide to hold together for 17 weeks for a change of pace and Retkofsky gets to keep moving furniture? Or will Retkofsky get the job in training camp and Warren gets thanked for his years of service?

Pants Squad Breakdown:

Half rookies, half retreads.

Steve McClendon should be a safe bet to come back, remembering John Mitchell's comments about last year's rookie defensive lineman as a group (Ziggy, Harris, and McClendon) being one of the best groups he's had. Incidentally, McClendon has been Ziggy's offseason workout buddy. Tyler Grisham will probably return to the squad despite the late call up last season. Eugene Bright is penciled in because there will definitely be a TE on the practice squad, and as of right now it's him by default. There will also definitely be a RB, and Redman gets the nod, but does anyone know if Justin Vincent still has another year or is he tapped out?

Doug Worthington is the latest addition to Mitchell's conversion program, and he really does sound like a future 3-4 DE in the making. Chris Scott sounds like a solid OL prospect as well, but he'd have to seriously outshine Urbik to be considered for the active roster, so I'm calling him a pants squad lock right now. Stevenson Sylvester and Crezdon Butler, a pair of very fun names, have the nominal inside tracks for LB and DB on the pants squad since they were drafted.

Conclusions:

Surprise, surprise - there really aren't many open spots on the team.

The only clear open spot on offense was at RB and Dwyer is likely on the inside track to take it, though maybe a second spot will open up if Sweed still can't put it all together, and perhaps a third if we find the next Brent Celek in the bargain bin and Spaeth gets cut. And only three spots on defense seem to be in play as well - though at least one of the two spots at LB is assured to go to a veteran, and if the coaching staff still likes Burnett/Lewis, then there might not be an opening at corner after all. Actually doing this breakdown also makes Worilds at OLB in the second a crystal clear sorely needed depth pick, as many people have already said, and I will always trust Colbert's board over mine so I'm 100% behind it.

Moral of the story - there are going to be a lot of sad rookies in Latrobe. We've got a slew of undrafted rookie free agents that are going to come in, and just about all of them are guaranteed to NOT make the roster along with most of our 3rd day picks. As a result, training camp should be that much more intense this year. And who knows, out of the fire and carnage and brutal competition, maybe someone will be galvanized and emerge as something really special.