Colbert's Drafting Success

I’ve become accustomed to seeing GM’s rated by having good years (74 Steelers), as opposed achieving success in certain rounds. Either way, this provides grounding on what we can reasonably expect from this draft class.

I can see this draft boosting Colbert’s lower rounds’ success rates.

Colbert and his draft staff remind me of the Ryan Howards of football; power hitters with just average “averages”. In explanation of that, just as in baseball, the big goal is to absolutely “hammer” the quality pitches which is what your 1st round picks are. Colbert and his guys do that consistently. What they don’t do is handle the “off speed” stuff very well. Same reason why Ryan Howard isn’t Albert Pujois, and why the Steelers aren’t the Colts or the Chargers whom both scout and consistently hit on picks in any and all rounds of the draft. That being said, just imagine where the Steelers would be IF THEY DIDN’T succeed in the 1st round everytime? ……yikes!!!!

While I believe the success/failure is dependent on any one player – using past percentages to predict future success isn’t all that accurate – it does show that Colbert is darn good in the upper rounds of the draft. What’s also interesting is his (and/or the team’s) success with undrafted FAs – Willie Parker, James Harrison, etc.

If you’re going to get 6-8 years out of a solid NFL starter, then all you really need is 2-3 picks per draft to become starters. That pace is going to allow you to constantly replace your starters as they get old. So if you get that, it’s a pretty darn good draft. So let’s look at it that way:

2009 – Mike Wallace, Ziggy Hood (both probable starters) – probably a good draft, but too early to tell
2008 – Starters – Rashard Mendenhall. If Sweed, Dixon, Hills and/or Mundy don’t step up, it’s not a great draft.
2007 – Starters – Timmons, Woodley, Sepulveda. Spot starters – Gay, McBean. Excellent draft.
2006 – Starters – Holmes, Colon. Decent draft.
2005 – Starters – Miller, McFadden, Essex, Kemo. Great draft.
2004 – Starters – Big Ben, Starks. Good draft.
2003 – Starters – Polamalu, Ike Taylor. Good draft.
2002 – Starters – Simmons, ARE, Hope, Foote, Keisel. Very good draft.
2001 – Starters – Hampton. Spot starters – Bell, Okobi. Mediocre draft.

If you look at it that way, he’s had some pretty successful drafts, missing out only in 2001 and (likely) 2008.

I just saw a stat on ESPN that stated that a higher percentage of undrafted free-agents go on to make team rosters than any draft pick, with the exception of first rounders.
Remarkable really.

I think it’s pretty obvious that the Steelers have done well in the draft. Just look at their record for the last 18 years since Cowher came on and then the last ten since Colbert’s been there. They didn’t get that good by signing free agents so their success has to come from the draft.

As far as the Colts or Chargers doing better? I don’t really see it.

Good analysis though. I think that Essex should be considered a success though, he started last year and has played average when called upon throughout his career.

….Cowher didn’t get along with him. Who knows, maybe because he didn’t like the fact that he was so tied to the Chuck Noll days. Oh, and if you have time anyone, check the number of middle round picks that the Chargers and Colts routinely have make their team, and actually flourish. Our problem, the Steelers that is, is that Colbert and company seem to go for the high risk/high reward guys in the 2nd and 2rd rounds where it might be more prudent to take the more established, “got consistent stats” in college, got good physical measurables kind of guys….as the Colts and Chargers do, New England as well. The big Steeler advantage or perhaps luck has been that their 1st rounders tend to be splash picks that you can surround with not so splash picks.

….guys, keep in mind that we’ve recently gone to a 7 round draft. Until a few years ago it was 12, maybe 14 rounds earlier than that, what up 17 before that? Do you realize how many Hall of Famers who were draft picks would now be free agents? Deacon Jones, John Unitas, so on and so on. How many players are usually taken by a team in reach round? One maybe 2 in rare situations? So therefore how many of those guys make a team each year, .75. .50, .25, maybe if the team is strong? Predraft free agents; 2 – 3? How many after draft free agents do ya bring in 8-10, 11? How many make to team, at least 1 or more? If you look at post draft free agency as a “round” then the numbers likely will be bigger than the draft rounds. Just a thought.

in putting this together. I do have a question though. Although personnel is his responsibility, GM’s like Colbert don’t exactly work in a vacuum. The coaching staff, especially the head coach, and the owner(s) have some influence, sometimes considerable on who and when players are chosen. That being said, wouldn’t the earlier drafts be Cowher/Colbert/(Dan) Rooney drafts, while the most recent would be Tomlin/Colbert/(Art)Rooney drafts?

….. should I say Sherlock. The core of a team is severely strained if the supporting cast is lacking in it’s own kind of vibrance. Some people are going to get pissed by this statement but there are several teams that top to bottom, players 1 – 53, that are better than the Steelers as a whole. The reasons for that is the sucessful drafting in rounds 2, 3, and 4. That is where you find your “good” depth for when injuries strike, where you find the guys that can replace your front liners when they retire or you trade them without missing a beat, or barely missing one, and where the big plays can come from when the days that your “stars” are having an off day occur. The Steelers are always a cliff like balancing act away from being just slightly above average because of their failures within those critical rounds. Take away just a couple of their SUPERIOR SPLASH GUYS and they come back to the pack….quickly. Always have in the last ten years and always will while drafting in this same way. Let….
                   1. Troy get hurt – disaster awaits
                   2. Smith get hurt – the run defense really suffers – just one guy
                   3. Harrison – successfully block him, and a quarterback is in for a 300 yard game.
                   4. Woodly – has yet to peak, plus his impact is not on the same level as the other
                       (3) as of yet so he’s the most replaceable, (which we’ll likely see at the end of
                        his contract….saddly)
                   5. Santonio Holmes – Yep, unfortunately his I.Q. and uniform number seem to be
                       about the same. But he passed Hines as the number 1 guy and watch how
                       much he’s missed next year. They better settle into the running game more for
                       that reason ….and ……
                   6. BIG DUMMY …. Uh, Big Ben, (who is clueless as to what to do with “little” Ben,
                       and let’s him go out at night far too often.) But hey, big overrated Ben. The only
                       reason that the most famous tree jumper in the NFL has one ring let alone two
                       are the guys above. Four years ago he just went for a ride with the team and
                       they beat Seattle due to the defense, a blind ref. at the goal line and Randle El
                       having a QB rating 4 times better than his. Oh, he did get in the way of a Colts
                       db who was about to pull a modern day Herm Edwards replay from that Giants
                       game in the 70’s to save Bettis. Two years ago, he had a great 15 minutes, that
                       without the guys above…..no second ring either. That’s right, I rate Ben as not
                       the most important guy on the team …..and the Steelers wanted Rivers more
                       before the 05 Draft, and likely would kill to have him now, him Brees, either of
                       the Mannings, Brady of course, and heck even Romo. The reason is those
                       splash guys that they already have.
Bottom line is that the team is always in a rather vulnerable position because of those 2, 3, and 4th round blunders. And unfortunately only a Big Ben night on the town’s screw up away from wishing they’d down a better job with that aspect of doing business.

But one other thing that has to be in the mix. Don’t forget the impact of UDFA. For example, the two most spectacular plays in SB 40 and SB 43 was Willie Parker’s 75 yard TD run (SB record) and Harrison’s 100 yard interception return for TD (SB record). Parker and Harrison are UDFA as is much of the brick and mortar of this team over the years. How do you evaluate that with the draft statistics?

I agree with above posters that Tik Talk lost his cred by not acknowledging that at 26 years old BB was playing with the elite. Even last December, with his supposedly dysfunctional-brain, he had the 10th biggest passing day in NFL history (I am right on that aren’t I? —500 plus yards including a beautiful game winner at the horn). Ben can make his own time even with a mediocre line, and his arm, reaction time, and ability to throw on the run are sick. I really like DIxon, but BB’s past good games are hard for even the top guys like Brees and Manning to top.

……stirring things up and fueling debate is wonderful; best way to learn and to bring clarity. So called “great” quarterbacks don’t usually win championships otherwise Dan Marino, Fran Tarkenton, Warren Moon, Boomer Esiason, Randall Cunningham, Dan Fouts, …..and Dan Marino is considered to be the best of ALL TIME. Great teams win them, other wise explain Jim McMahon, Doug Williams, (who stepped into a game at the last minute), Jeff Hostetler, Mark Rypien, Trent Dilfer, (what a laugh there). C’mon. The Steelers went 15-1 with Big Dummy as a rookie, rolling out 35% of the time to cut the field in half so he could read it while the offense ran the ball close to 65% of the time. Nycsteelerfan said something about if BB had a running game, “they won the rings primarily with their running game”, when they can’t run they usually don’t win. In fact historically, big passing games are usually logged by the losing quarterback.
Don’t get me wrong folks, I appreciate Ben’s and other quarterbacks talent, I was one myself, made 1st team allstate, made 2nd team All America while in the SEC, blew out my knee in the Fiesta Bowl otherwise who knows, and I’m bigger than Ben. I now coach QB’s, 2 of my former guys start in D-1, another is in the NFL now. The primary role of a QB is to manage the game, throw a few key strikes here and there to get the ball in the end zone, run the clock down to nothing, and rest the defense as much as possible. The more the ball is in the air, normally the worse a teams luck will be, sorry that’s a proven fact. Games get longer, the opposing defense gets more cracks at turnovers. 500 yard passing games generally are only good for a quarterbacks ego, not the win loss column.
And yes, the Steelers targeted Phil Rivers in that draft, tried to trade to get him and it didn’t work out so they took Ben. It worked out fine but maybe they’d have 3 rings now instead of two. Maybe Phil would’ve stayed off the motorcycle the next year.
Oh, and yesterday, I failed to give shotouts to Heath Miller, not the best but close, Willie Parker, that running game that some people fail to remember was there, and Ike Taylor, not quite like Revis but very similar, neither has great hands but Revis is more like glue to Ike’s often velcro qualities.

Under Colbert the Steelers have won two superbowls in 10 years and during that time rank in the top 5 in winning percentage. They don’t sign free agents.

So I don’t know what his success rate is compared to other teams in drafting, but the teams he puts together are highly successful and the players are almost entirely comprised of his draft picks. IMO that means he knows what he’s doing in the draft. Yes, even in the later rounds.