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Pittsburgh Steelers 2010 Fantasy Football Season Outlook

Now that the NFL draft is complete and most of the free agents who are worth a damn in terms of fantasy football are all signed I thought it would be interesting to look at where some of our beloved Pittsburgh Steelers look in terms of fantasy football for the 2010 season. [Frank]

Quarterbacks- While some may say that you might want to look at Byron Leftwitch, Dennis Dixon, or even Charlie Batch to hold down your fantasy team during weeks 1-4 (and possibly 6 and 7), I think you are better off staying clear of whomever is throwing the rock in Big Ben absence.  The Steelers are likely to lean on their running game with Ben out and with a weaker receiving corp than last year; I wouldn't put my fantasy success in the hands of any of these guys.  I think Ben Roethlisberger on the other hand could be a decent option if you can find him late enough in the draft, especially if you have one of the top QB's like a Manning, Breese, Schaub type you could steal Ben to cover a bye-week and then offer him up as trade value.

20080830mfsteelers0828_4_330_medium

Bottom Line: Stay clear of the Steelers QB's, but do keep an eye on Roethlisberger if he starts to slip, as he could be a nice complimentary QB or even solid trade bait.

Star-divide


Running Backs- I think Rashard Mendenhall will be off most draft boards during the first round and as the season approaches I expect the buzz on him to heat up even more, possibly having some reach for him as a top five running back (which I think he could very well end up a top five back fantasy wise as the end of the year).  Outside of Mendenhall I don't see Frank Summers, Issac Redman, Mewelde Moore, or Jonathan Dwyer getting enough touches consistently to be worth anything, unless Mendenhall has an injury.  My long shot pick-up is possibly Stefan Logan, word around the OTA's is the Steelers are seeing what Logan possibly has in terms of lining up in the backfield.  With Mendenhall being the team's workhorse Logan might find his niche as the change of pace speed back.  While it is certainly a long-shot and he could even find himself unemployed in Pittsburgh if Logan got 10-12 touches per game in the offense and maintains his job as the primary return specialist he might be an interesting value.

Rashard-mendenhall-2_medium

Bottom Line:  I put Mendenhall as one of the top players at his position and if you are sitting at the bottom of round one and he is still around you need to grab him.  Also, keep an eye out for how Logan progresses during training camp and the preseason, if he is on the roster and supposed to get touches at RB he might be worth taking a flyer on.


Receivers-  Hines Ward is probably the best buy in the Steelers receiving group but he is another year older and without Ben throwing the ball for four weeks his numbers are likely to not be as dynamic as last season.  I think Mike Wallace is a player that a lot of fantasy folks are way too high on, while I could potentially see Wallace having a decent season, I think he will have quite a few games this season where he will be shut down completely.  I don't think there is much reason to have any faith in Randle-El, Battle, or any of the rookies in terms of fantasy value.

05receivers

Bottom Line:  I would steer clear of all Steelers receivers unless you find Ward or Wallace slipping way past their Average Draft Position,


Tight End-  I think Heath Miller is due for a big season.  With the Steelers looking to focus more on the run and with the loss of Santonio Holmes I see Miller looking at a career year.  Last season Miller had 76 catches, almost 800 yards receiving and 6 touchdowns.  I would expect a similar stat-line from Miller.  Miller will be more valuable in a PPR league since he gets a lot of touches but not as many touchdowns as some of the elite tight end's in the league.

Heathmiller1a_medium

Bottom Line:  I never suggest taking Tight Ends very early so Miller might be a quality player to target after the upper echelon of Tight Ends are off the board. Having said that, Miller's not a player I would reach for, let him fall to you.

Defense-  With a healthy Troy Polamalu back in the mix and Aaron Smith looking like he is on a solid path to recovery the Steelers defense should be top five in the league in defense.  The secondary is still a question mark so interceptions may be something the Steelers struggle with again this year like they did last year.

20090109steelers_defense_800_medium

Bottom Line:  Some donkey in your league is going to draft the Jets defense with their second round draft pick, if you can find value in picking the Steelers do so, but don't be the guy who drafts a defense too early.   There is usually one or two surprise defenses that end up being studs that go undrafted, so don't worry too much.  One tip I like to use is look for a defense that has a bye-week early on in weeks four or five.  This way you can get your bye-week over with quickly and use the roster spot for second defense on a more important position.  The teams that have a bye week in week four are the Cowboys, Chiefs, Vikings, Buccaneers; the teams that have a bye in week five are Dolphins, Patriots, Steelers, Seahawks.

Some light reading on a sleepy Wednesday afternoon.  I think the Steelers are a team that won't be nearly as exciting in terms of fantasy as they were last season but there are still some quality players to be had.  What do you think about the Steelers fantasy outlook and the fantasy outlook in general BTSC?

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Steelers usually avg in Fantasy

Milkshake, I agree with your assesment that this year the only offensive player on the steelers roster worth taking a high pick on is Rashard. He was a solid contributor last year (I picked him up in week 5 or so of waivers in my league) and this year looks like the brunt of the work will go through him; both running the football and catching it out of the back-field.
On the other hand, the only steelers receiver that has produced as a No. 2 wide out for years is Hines. I beleive there will be value there in the mid-to-late rounds, as well as with BB, as people will probably keep off steelers WRs & QB during the fantasy drafts.

Heath is also a steady contributor at the right price.

In leagues that have individual defensive players as part of the starting roster I would target James Harrison as first option and Lamar as second option and Troy as a third.

  1. is always on the stat sheet with tackles and either sacks or forced fumbles or both, which makes him a bit more valuable than Woodley, as he does not have as many FF as harrison.

Overall in fantasy land I belaive that the trend of picking Running backs first and QB’s second is changing, as the good QB’s are putting up large numbers week in and week out. No longer will we see AP or Chris Johnson go #1 overall, I believe it’ll be Brees or Manning and then Rodgers, Shuab and someone usually falls in love with Cutler…

thoughts?

It all starts in the trenches.

by The_Nation_in_Mexico on May 26, 2010 10:48 AM EDT reply actions  

Speaking of AP and CJ, who do you take first? I really think CJs numbers will take a big dive this year.

The future is not what it used to be.

by John Stephens on May 26, 2010 10:51 AM EDT up reply actions  

I won the toilet bowl last year in my big $$$$ league…I have first pick and I am taking CJ. It’s a keeper league and I had him last year & we are only allowed to keep a player two seasons in a row. This guarantees me getting to keep him for three years in a row if I want him.

I'll drink your Milkshake, I'll drink it up!

by Frank Mineo (DYMS) on May 26, 2010 10:53 AM EDT up reply actions  

But do you agree that because of passing production during the games that, in general, running backs are now taking a seat behind QB’s in draft order?

It all starts in the trenches.

by The_Nation_in_Mexico on May 26, 2010 11:01 AM EDT up reply actions  

I can see the value in taking a QB over some the second tier of RB’s after the Chris Johnson’s, Adrian Peterson’s of the world are gone. I think it really depends on what the scoring set-up is of your league.

I'll drink your Milkshake, I'll drink it up!

by Frank Mineo (DYMS) on May 26, 2010 11:08 AM EDT up reply actions  

something happend with the paragraph there that says “1. is always on the stat sheet..” I meant to say that Harrison is a little more valuable than Woodley..

It all starts in the trenches.

by The_Nation_in_Mexico on May 26, 2010 11:03 AM EDT up reply actions  

That is a scary picture of the defense at the bottom. Harrison looks like a freaking thug who wants to kill your grandmother.

You have to hate losing more than you love winning.

by Mr MaLoR on May 26, 2010 2:52 PM EDT reply actions  

just your grandmother Malor, just your grandmother.

I'll drink your Milkshake, I'll drink it up!

by Frank Mineo (DYMS) on May 26, 2010 2:59 PM EDT up reply actions  

Messed up man….

You have to hate losing more than you love winning.

by Mr MaLoR on May 26, 2010 4:50 PM EDT up reply actions  

92's mom would kick your ass too

"It was an attrition football game and you know we like that."

by showtime on May 26, 2010 7:56 PM EDT up reply actions  

unless your league starts 2 qbs

runningbacks are going to stay more valuable. It’s not about who scores the most fantasy points, but about the value and dropoff at each position. Low tier qbs can easily have greater pointage than a top rb. Especially if your scoring system is weighted towards passing stats. If you take a toptier rb in the first and a romo in the 5th, you are going to be better off than taking brees in the first and a lowtiwer rb in the 5th. These is even more true if you start a flex rb, so as to start 3+ rbs.
As for drafting ben as a backup, I think he probably will be too expensive. And if you are in a league that has limited bench space, committing 6 weeks to a guy can be tough, especially in the first couple weeks when there are always half a dozen guys nobody expected to do well you might want to take a chance on and pick up.
Still, if he is there very light, he could be a great backup qb. Just don’t back him up to romo, favre or brady because you will have to commit to a 3rd Qb.

by vherub on May 26, 2010 4:35 PM EDT reply actions  

exactly…

I'll drink your Milkshake, I'll drink it up!

by Frank Mineo (DYMS) on May 26, 2010 5:09 PM EDT up reply actions  

Don't you get "Fantsasy" with me young man

"A pessimist sees the difficulty in every opportunity; an optimist sees the opportunity in every difficulty." - Winston Churchill

by PixburghArn on May 27, 2010 8:52 AM EDT reply actions  

jesus I need an more on time editor Arn.

I'll drink your Milkshake, I'll drink it up!

by Frank Mineo (DYMS) on May 27, 2010 9:27 AM EDT up reply actions  

lol

I kept thinking of writing that and I finally remembered. I also thought of sending an email so you could have done it low key, but you know me….. I can’t pass up an opportunity to get a chuckle. :\

"A pessimist sees the difficulty in every opportunity; an optimist sees the opportunity in every difficulty." - Winston Churchill

by PixburghArn on May 27, 2010 9:41 AM EDT up reply actions  

haha..no worries

I'll drink your Milkshake, I'll drink it up!

by Frank Mineo (DYMS) on May 27, 2010 10:21 AM EDT up reply actions  

Mendenhall's value will be tied to who gets the goal line carries

If he gets the rock near the goal line, he could easily be a top 5 fantasy back but if Summers or Dwyer start stealing goal line carries, then Mendy falls possibly out of the top 10. It’ll also be interesting to see how much he’s used in the passing game.

The Steelers’ D should be much improved and could be a real steal once guys grab other defenses that blew up last year, but the real question is which Steelers’ defender would you take in a individual defender league? Troy? Silverback? Woodley? Timmons? My money would either be on Woodley or Timmons but you really can’t go wrong with any of those four.

by cgolden on May 27, 2010 10:02 AM EDT reply actions  

Trouble with Timmons

I wonder if his role will change and, if so, by how much, with Foote here. Does Timmons share time with Farrior? Does he start ahead of or behind Foote? Do the three do some type of strange rotation where you may be looking at one of three pairings depending on situation? I am guessing at the latter but someone who knows these things better than me is welcome to clarify where things stand atm.

How do I break it to the cat that since he has been declawed, the rabbit he sees in our backyard would kick his sorry butt?

by Cold_Old_Steelers_Fan on May 27, 2010 10:21 AM EDT up reply actions  

Yea, true. I suspect there will be some kind of rotation but....

with Timmon’s talents he absolutely has to be on the field on passing downs, which should lead to sacks or picks. That’s where most of the points are accumulated, I think he’s going to be quite a surprise. Plus he’s sort of my pick to have a breakout type of season. He’s just too damn talented to keep off the field and it’s easy to forget that he just turned 24 years old so there’s no doubt that his best football days are ahead of him.

by cgolden on May 27, 2010 10:41 AM EDT up reply actions  

stay clear of defenses

I'll drink your Milkshake, I'll drink it up!

by Frank Mineo (DYMS) on May 27, 2010 4:41 PM EDT up reply actions  

I know, first time player and first time schmuck.

If I had had half a brain, I would have asked the Nation, as so many others did.

Live and learn….

by dawgs144 on May 27, 2010 10:31 PM EDT up reply actions  

Case in point…the Bronco’s defense probably went un-drafted in 9 out of 10 leagues last year yet they finished in the top ten in fantasy points in my league.

I'll drink your Milkshake, I'll drink it up!

by Frank Mineo (DYMS) on May 27, 2010 4:44 PM EDT up reply actions  

Defense and Kicker should always be your last 2 picks. Almost every league I compete it, the guys who take defenses and kickers super early always end up missing the playoffs.

You have to hate losing more than you love winning.

by Mr MaLoR on May 27, 2010 7:22 PM EDT up reply actions  

You're both absolutely right, and I learned the hard way....

The saving grace is that the league I was in was head-to-head, so the rest of the team picked me up – actually it was almost all Drew Brees.

by dawgs144 on May 27, 2010 10:30 PM EDT up reply actions  

When drafting, I do find it tough to pass up on defenses like Baltimore, Pittsburgh and now the Jets. However, taking them in the 7th or 8th round is a huge mistake. Getting another WR or RB is much more important. It is too hard to gauge what defenses are going to do each where as a skill position you know what you are going to get from them each week.

You have to hate losing more than you love winning.

by Mr MaLoR on May 28, 2010 12:51 AM EDT up reply actions  

plus

you can always have a pretty good guess as to what lousy defenses might have decent years based on stregnth of schedule.

"Cam, we're not going to have any issues because we're going to be winning."
--Joe Flacco

"Just win baby. Yeah, I stole that."
--Jon Gruden

by jackmca on May 28, 2010 9:50 AM EDT up reply actions  

Since it was an office pool, there were only 8 teams.

You can imagine how easy it was throughout the season to pick up some gemz along the way. Jamaar Charles ended up being a steal, the kid from the Cowboys….took me a little longer to figure it out, but I hear what you’re saying.

I actually had Ray Rice and Derrick Mason at the start of the season, and ended up giving up on them both – I was way too new at this to have the patience to hold onto Rice.

Live & learn…

by dawgs144 on May 29, 2010 9:27 AM EDT up reply actions  

I think Frank Summers is a great sleeper that could be a steal if he goes undrafted

But only if you are in a deep league.

Bringing Baltimore Beatdown "Create a Caption" for 7 weeks and counting.

by Zachary Beard on May 30, 2010 10:26 AM EDT reply actions  

Yea right. He will barely see any carries.

You have to hate losing more than you love winning.

by Mr MaLoR on May 30, 2010 1:58 PM EDT up reply actions  

That's what we said about Pain-Train McClain in '08

Bringing Baltimore Beatdown "Create a Caption" for 7 weeks and counting.

by Zachary Beard on May 30, 2010 4:39 PM EDT up reply actions  

Did we? I sure as hell didn’t.

You have to hate losing more than you love winning.

by Mr MaLoR on May 30, 2010 4:53 PM EDT up reply actions  

depends

If he gets the short yardage/goal line carries he might be worth a late choice but there is no way of knowing that in advance.

How do I break it to the cat that since he has been declawed, the rabbit he sees in our backyard would kick his sorry butt?

by Cold_Old_Steelers_Fan on May 31, 2010 7:20 PM EDT up reply actions  


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