some RB stats for pre season games 3,4

by Steely McSmash on Sep 4, 2010 3:08 PM EDT

Just a quick look at the gains from all RB in the last 2 games.

Before I start I just want to point out that obviously all three backs are playing with and against different levels of personnel, in different phases of the games.

From the Denver game Dwyer was looking good on the box score but he really didn't have a lot of positive plays. The box score usually shows an average yards per carry. It's a decent stat if the back has consistent production but it makes boom and bust players look better than they actually are. For those that speak Stats: Average is the best way to asses typical production from a data set with a normal distribution. For the non normal, you are better off looking at median or % achieving success by some standard.

"Splash Plays" as Tomlin calls them are great and can change a game. In many cases however you need the run game to eat some clock, take some yards on first down or simply move the sticks on a 3rd down. Steeler Football if you will.

I took a look at some better stats to get an idea of how well suited Mendenhall, Moore, Redman, and Dwyer are to this role.

I took all running plays into account per NFL.com play by play stats including some that were overturned by penalty. I calculated Average YPC, Median YPC, % of plays with yardage less than 0, % of plays with yardage from 0 to 2, and % of plays with yardage of 3 or more. (Median is the number with equal # of data points on either side of it)

The stats back up Dwyer's boom or bust nature in that he had a good play (3+ yards) less than half of the time. The other backs show fairly similar numbers for these two games anyway. Redman Mendenhall and Moore all got 3+ yards at least 70% of the time. Redman's stout running is reflected in his pack-leading median yards per carry of 5.0.

Mendenhall (10runs)

Avg YPC:5

Median YPC: 4.5

<0 %: 10%

0-2 %: 10%

3+ %: 80%

M. Moore (13 Runs)

Avg YPC:4.9

Median YPC: 4.0

<0 %: 8%

0-2 %: 8%

3+ %: 85%

Redman (7 runs)

Avg YPC:6.6

Median YPC: 5.0

<0 %: 0%

0-2 %: 29%

3+ %: 71%

Dwyer (33 runs)

Avg YPC:5.6

Median YPC:2.0

<0 %: 21%

0-2 %: 36%

3+ %: 42%

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Comments

This is awesome

Thanks. Great to have a critical eye on statistics.

It made me wonder, how often do running back’s yardage have a normal distribution? Is median a better gauge? Obviously there are more sophisticated systems like the ones Football Outsiders use.

by syrsteelerfan on Sep 4, 2010 11:17 PM EDT reply actions

On Normal dist:

Thanks for your comments – glad you enjoyed it.

I’d say a back’s yards are not very normal just by the nature of being able to bust big runs, you’d have some cluster of 0-6 yard runs and then a more than normal quantity of 10+ yard runs. The more big runs you have the less normal the distribution.

Median is a way to assess a typical outcome from non-normal data so I think it’s more appropriate to RB YPC.

Another way to look at this might be to consider what you need in a situation.

For example on 1st down, running a boom or bust guy like Willie Parker is more like a passing play in that he might get a good chunk of yards or he could get stood up at the line of scrimmage (similar result to incompletion). In this case average is a good stat to assess the player.

This might be ok on 1st down where you can forsake some consistency for a chance of a big play but on third down, you want a typical run to meet the needs of moving the chains. For this instance Median or % 3+ yards are IMO better measures of how well the backs are suited to the role.

by Steely McSmash on Sep 5, 2010 3:15 PM EDT up reply actions