This Week's Matchup: Offense

I've been thinking about a fanpost where we break down the individual matchups in each game for the season.  Here is my first cut at this for the game agaisnt Atlanta.  Time permitting, I'll try to put one together each week.  I'll also try to get one done from the defensive perspective.  I apologize in advance for the typos... I'm terrible at editing my own writing, particuarly on a screen.

Atlanta runs a base 4-3 alignment.  In a 4-3 defense, which is designed to play gap-control, the entire defense shifts to the strong side, which is typically the side that has either two WR’s or the TE.  So, if Heath is lined up on the right side and Wallace and Hines are on the left side of our formation, Atlanta’s defense will call a “strong left” and shift to the left side with the LDE lined up over Heath, the SLB line up over Adams, the LDT lined up over the inside eye of Essex, the MLB is lined up in “A” gap between Pounce and Essex, the RDT is line on the inside eye of Kemo, and the RDE is lined up over the outside eye of Starks.  The WLB lines up on the inside leg of the RDE.  Although he does not have a particular gap to fill, his job is to stop the cut-back and flow to the football in backside pursuit.   Some teams use this defense in an attacking manner, where the DT’s shoot the gap on the snap of the ball in an attempt to cause penetration and throw off the o-line’s blocking schemes.  This is usually designed to overcome a d-line’s limited size and utilize speed over power.  The LB’s and CB’s are not always on the same side of the field.  The LB’s will line up based on the “strength” call that is made by the MLB.  The strongside LB (the SLB) will go to either the TE side when there is TE or the two WR side when we don’t have a TE on the field.  The CB’s usually line up either based on a particular person they are covering for the game or on either field or boundary.  The field corner goes to the wide side of the field and the boundary corner will play the short side of the field.  The LB’s responsibilities are as follows:  the SLB almost always have a “C” gap, the space between the TE and the OT.  The MLB  is usually responsible for the strong-side “A” gap (space between the C and OG) and weak-side B gap (space between the OG and OT).  As stated above, the WLB (weak-side LB) does not have gap responsibility in the base defense. 

Some caveats:  I am a big fan of the running game and usually watch the game from that perspective.  So, I tend to focus on the o-line.  Moreover, I have zero experience in how a zone-blocking scheme works, but I assume it requires that our folks block the 1st defensive player that crosses their face.  Most of my analysis is based on the idea that our o-linemen and/or FB and TE will block the other team’s guy that is lined up over them.  Atlanta’s 4-3 is based upon speed and, as a result, the best approach against this defense, in my opinion, is to play smash-mouth football and drive them off the ball all day long. 

Here is Atlanta’s depth chart:

Matchups:

Adams (or Miller/Spaeth?) v. Bierman:  Adams, or either of our TE’s, should crush this guy in the running game.  It should also be easy for our FB to kick this guy out on an off-tackle run.  As a pass-rusher, he had 5 sacks in 2009, so I don’t know if Adams will need help from either a TE or a RB in passing situations.     

Essex vs. Jerry:  Although Essex is bigger than Jerry by 2 inches and 30 pounds, this is the matchup that scares me the most.  I think Essex will need too much help from Pounce in running situations, thus freeing up the MLB, and I’m worried that Jerry will be able to slice through and by Essex and wreak havoc in our backfield.  Jerry was hurt last year, but as former 1st round draft pick, this kid has loads of potential and we should not be surprised if he kicks the snot out of Essex all day long.

Pouncey vs. Lofton:  On almost every running play, (assuming we don’t use a FB), Pounce will be expected to “kiss” block one of the DT and then take out the MLB.  By that, I mean he will be expected first throw a forearm between the hip and rib of the play-side DT and then step off to block the MLB.  Pounce has this ability and should have no issues dominating Lofton all day long.  I’m more concerned about Kemo and Essex needing too much help.  While he may not be Farrior, Lofton is a good LB and he will make plays if Pounce has to help either OG too much.

Kemo vs. Babineaux:  Babineaux is a little undersized and Kemo should easily drive him off the ball on running plays.  In light of his smaller size for the DT position, I expect him to try to shoot the gaps and play the edges to cause problems in our backfield.   He had 6 sacks last year, so I assume he is fairly decent as a pass rusher.   In light of his speed, Kemo may have an issue in sealing off the backside when we run to the right.  If Kemo is mentally focused, I think he holds his own on this guy.

Starks vs.  Abraham:   At 6’4, Abraham may cause problems for Starks in that he can “dip and rip” underneath Starks.  Abraham is known for his initial quickness and upfield acceleration, which Starks can sometimes have trouble with.  Abraham is also an 11-year veteran, so we should assume that he has a plethora of pass-rush moves.  That said, I think Starks shuts him down all day in the passing game and kicks his butt in the running game.  At 263, Abraham lacks the size and strength to hold the point of attack and I see us running off tackle behind Starks and right at this guy. 

Redman/TE’s vs. Atlanta’s LB’s:  On running plays when we have FB on the field (I know this won’t be too often), our FB, be it Redman or one of the TE’s, will have to block a LB at the point of attack.  For instance, if we line up with a TE on the right side, the o-line down-blocks to the left, one defensive player, typically the SLB, will be left for the FB to block.  This is called an isolation block.  I have not seen Redman take on a LB directly at the point of attack in this type of situation, so I have no basis to guess how this matchup will play out.  I have seen Johnson make some great iso-blocks, so I expect to see him in there on occasion and think he should not have any issue in driving Atlanta’s smaller-sized LB’s out of Mendy’s path.  Weatherspoon was highly touted coming out of college and has great speed and an awesome motor.  Because of Atlanta’s team speed on D, I hope we stay clear of gadget plays and the like.

Our WR’s vs. Atlanta’s DBs:  From a running perspective, we have the best blocking WR’s in the NFL and I anxiously look forward to Hines destroying someone almost every game.  From an analytical perspective, the 4-3 requires that the SS “fill the alley” in that the SS must come up from his safety position and take down the other team’s RB on outside or off-tackle runs.  I fully expect that our WR’s will prevent Atlanta’s SS from coming up and making that play.  If Mendy or Redman make it past Atlanta’s front 7, it’s off to the races.  In passing situations, Wallace will take the top off the defense and stretch the field and neither Robinson nor Grimes can cover him one-on-one and will need help from the FS, so I see Dixon hitting a lot of underneath stuff all day long. 

Dixon v. Atlanta’s Defense:  Obviously, this is the wild card for the game.  I imagine Atlanta will keep Weatherspoon or one of the safety’s home to spy on Dixon all game and make sure he doesn’t take off on passing plays.  Atlanta’s DB’s are aggressive and will challenge Dixon to beat them.  I also expect to see a lot of press coverage on our WR’s that are not named Wallace in type of man/zone hybrid on obvious passing downs. 

Overall expectation:  Assuming Dixon plays mistake-free, I think our offense moves the ball well in both phases of the game and I expect us to put up at least 27 points.