Since there seems to be a high interest in MOCK drafts (really, what else is there to talk about during this time of the season), I thought I would put together a post to show the results of some of the well known MOCK drafts. Its fun reading the experts mock, but really whose input should we put the most faith into? Do the so-called experts (Kiper, Mayock, McShay) really know what they're talking about?
We read these mocks because we generally would like to have an idea on who's going where and who the Steelers realistically have a chance to get.
That being said, how do you go about grading a MOCK draft? My system gives a score that for EACH pick, calculates the difference (absolute value) from where the author predicted the player to be drafted and where he ACTUALLY was drafted. I sum up the differences, and the lower the score, the better the mock draft grade. I also looked at a couple of other stats: Quantity of players that were correctly picked to go at the EXACT draft spot, Quantity of players correctly predicted to go in the 1st round, etc.
The MOCK drafts I analyzed were the guys from ESPN, NFL Network, CBS Sportsline, Sports Illustrated, Scout.com, Ed Bouchette, and National Football Post. I also included Big Jay, because I always think he's as good as these experts and wanted to compare. Seton Hall's is included as well. That guy has done a ton of research, but he's a 17 year old kid, and it would be interesting to see how his work stacked up with the experts too. The BTSC Community MOCK is in too.
For this experiment, I also included in MOCK draft of a clueless IDIOT. Someone who doesnt watch game film or even college football for that matter, but reads a lot of draft websites. I will myself play the part of the IDIOT (I know, I know, not a stretch for me). But it's to see if a dolt can do just as good a job picking as the experts. And besides, the only reason I did a mock, was to enter the BUD LIGHT contest.
Some guys did only 1 round, some did 2 or 3. Only Todd McShay, Big Jay, and Seton did a full 7 round mock. A few minor adjustments. Seton's mock only had 250 picks (instead of 254), so for the full draft analysis I used 250. He also skipped 159. If an author picked a guy that didnt get drafted, I treated it as if the player got picked at 255. Big Jay picked Demarco Murray twice, so I adjusted for that. So without further ado, here are the RESULTS.
BEST FIRST ROUND SCORE.
|12||Na.l Football Post||-193|
HIGHEST NUMBER OF FIRST ROUND PICKS AT THE EXACT POSTION
|14||Na.l Football Post||5|
HIGHEST NUMBER OF PLAYERS CORRECTLY PICKED TO GO IN THE 1ST ROUND
|3||Na.l Football Post||29|
BEST COMBINED 1ST AND 2ND ROUND SCORE
|3||Na.l Football Post||-788|
BEST COMBINED 1ST, 2ND, AND 3RD ROUND SCORE
|2||Na.l Football Post||-2005|
BEST TOTAL COMBINED SCORE (ALL 7 ROUNDS)
HIGHEST TOTAL OF PLAYERS PREDICTED TO BE DRAFTED
As can be seen, Todd McShay was SOLID and proved well worth his salt. He really set himself apart in the 2nd round. Big Jay had an excellent First round, but was foiled by a Justin Houston pick. Tak, that one pick away and he is right there at top.
Seton, for all his effort, still has a ways to go. But the guy is only 17 and he has impressed a lot of us here at BTSC. He'll do better in the future, but for now I'll take more stock into Big Jay's input.
Me and BTSC Community pretty much stunk it up, which I guess shows that there actually is more to this than just sheer luck. But a strong advantage the experts have, (besides it being their DAY jobs), is that they are well connected and are privy to insider information. They had better info on Bowers falling and it hurt us amateurs.
Anyway, enjoy the results and hopefully this gives us a better idea who to listen to next year.