FanPost

'Let's go to Vegas': An Early Look at 2011 NFL Super Bowl Odds (updated)

[Note by kk99, 08/24/11 12:10 AM PDT ] I added a second table at the bottom which includes many better (but not all) payouts from a different provider. As you see, it pays to shop, on the second line Carolina is paying 325 to 1 vs. 150 to 1 for the first line. This provider probably has little action on Carolina so maybe they are buying that market with exceptionally better odds. Or maybe the first line provider is working with the second, kinda like wholesale & retail. Who knows but it is worth noting the difference.

 

I love Vegas but I would never want to live there, too many 24/7 temptations. I'd probably be an overweight, oversexed, compulsive gambler, definitely not a pretty picture. But it is interesting to look at the future odds to see how Vegas manages it's book. They aren't looking to pick winners, they just want to balance their books for effective risk management. So essentially Vegas lines are predictors of the whole betting public doing a SportsNation pole.

Phil Mickelson won a 22 to 1 bet on the Ravens and cashed out $420,000. But there are pretty good rumors that he has had some huge losses and had to sign with Callaway just to pay his bookies. That part if it is true is not something he is likely to brag about:). Phil still talks about the Ravens, i know some people who have played with him and he loved to talk shop about his gambling. Supposedly, he gave up gambling when his son was born, not sure if i buy that one.

But i digress.  Last year the Packers started at 12 to 1 & Stillers were 10 to 1. The favorites were the Colts at 6 to 1 with the Chargers 2nd at 7 to 1. Here are the historic winners' pre-season future odds:

Preseason Odds of Recent SB Winners:

XLV - Packers at 12 to 1

XLIV - Saints at 25 to 1

XLIII - Steelers at 18 to 1

XLII - Giants at 30 to 1

XLI - Colts at 5 to 1 (and they won)

This is mostly a sucker bet unless you are able to hedge and play the bookies lines off each other, there often appear to be some big divergences this early. But if you look at the past five winners, these lines were only right once in the last 5 years. Although, in Super Bowl XLII the pre-season favorite was the Pats at 3 to 1. So these lines picked at least 2 teams correctly to appear in the SB, so they are not always way off. But to pick the eventual winner now is like finding a diamond in a haystack full of needles. Yea, you can get lucky like Mickelson (but maybe he had $20k on 10 teams so he really only won $240k:) ) but the winners are often a good team maybe ranked 5-10 that gets hot and rolls thru. When was the last time a 90 to 1 (Skins) or a 150 to 1 (Bills & Panthers) actually won?

That would be never exceptionally rare, Greatest Show on Turf paid 100 to 1 in 2000 SB. (thanks homer j)

 

2012 Super Bowl Futures Odds included in original post: 

Team 2012 Super Bowl XLVI Futures Odds
Money Odds (Payout Per $100 Bet.)
Arizona Cardinals +$5,000 (50 to 1)
Atlanta Falcons +$1,200 (12 to 1)
Baltimore Ravens +$1,200 (12 to 1)
Buffalo Bills +$15,000 (150 to 1)
Carolina Panthers +$15,000 (150 to 1)
Chicago Bears +$3,500 (35 to 1)
Cincinnati Bengals +$10,000 (100 to 1)
Cleveland Browns +$6,000 (60 to 1)
Dallas Cowboys +$2,000 (20 to 1)
Denver Broncos +$6,000 (60 to 1)
Detroit Lions +$2,200 (22 to 1)
Green Bay Packers +$600 (6 to 1)
Houston Texans +$3,200 (32 to 1)
Indianapolis Colts +$1,000 (10 to 1)
Jacksonville Jaguars +$6,000 (60 to 1)
Kansas City Chiefs +$3,000 (30 to 1)
Miami Dolphins +$4,000 (40 to 1)
Minnesota Vikings +$3,500 (35 to 1)
New England Patriots +$600 (6 to 1)
New Orleans Saints +$1,200 (12 to 1)
New York Giants +$2,000 (20 to 1)
New York Jets +$1,200 (12 to 1)
Oakland Raiders +$5,000 (50 to 1)
Philadelphia Eagles +$600 (6 to 1)
Pittsburgh Steelers +$1,000 (10 to 1)
San Diego Chargers +$1,300 (13 to 1)
San Francisco 49ers +$4,000 (40 to 1)
Seattle Seahawks +$8,000 (80 to 1)
St. Louis Rams +$5,000 (50 to 1)
Tampa Bay Buccaneers +$3,000 (30 to 1)
Tennessee Titans +$6,000 (60 to 1)
Washington Redskins +$9,000 (90 to 1)

 

2012 SB Futures from alternate sportsbook:

(added for comparison)

 

Team 2012 Super Bowl XLVI Futures Odds
Money Odds (Payout Per $100 Bet.)
Arizona Cardinals +$9,500 (95 to 1)
Atlanta Falcons +$1,750 (17.5 to 1)
Baltimore Ravens +$1,900 (19 to 1)
Buffalo Bills +$19,000 (190 to 1)
Carolina Panthers +$32,500 (325 to 1)
Chicago Bears +$4,100 (41 to 1)
Cincinnati Bengals +$21,000 (210 to 1)
Cleveland Browns +$17,000 (170 to 1)
Dallas Cowboys +$2,000 (20 to 1)
Denver Broncos +$17,500 (175 to 1)
Detroit Lions +$4,000 (40 to 1)
Green Bay Packers +$750 (7.5 to 1)
Houston Texans +$2,700 (27 to 1)
Indianapolis Colts +$1,800 (18 to 1)
Jacksonville Jaguars +$8,000 (80 to 1)
Kansas City Chiefs +$8,000 (80 to 1)
Miami Dolphins +$9,500 (95 to 1)
Minnesota Vikings +$9,500 (95 to 1)
New England Patriots +$500 (5 to 1)
New Orleans Saints +$1,400 (14 to 1)
New York Giants +$2,800 (28 to 1)
New York Jets +$1,600 (16 to 1)
Oakland Raiders +$11,000 (110 to 1)
Philadelphia Eagles +$800 (8 to 1)
Pittsburgh Steelers +$1,350 (13.5 to 1)
San Diego Chargers +$1,100 (11 to 1)
San Francisco 49ers +$6,500 (65 to 1)
Seattle Seahawks +$18,500 (185 to 1)
St. Louis Rams +$6,600 (66 to 1)
Tampa Bay Buccaneers +$3,800 (38 to 1)
Tennessee Titans +$11,000 (110 to 1)
Washington Redskins +$18,500 (185 to 1)

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