In the Shadow of the Emperor? Longevity Index Part II – Comparing the Steeler Coaching Regimes.

In my previous post "Why the Steelers should NOT package later rounds (3 thru 6) to move up", I presented the concept of a "Longevity Index" as a means to comparing a team's success to the average career length of its draft picks.

I then compared this ranking, with the ranking of the most successful teams since 1970, based on winning percentage, and found a strong correlation between the most successful teams, and their rankings in the Longevity Index. You can take advantage of the links provided herein to review the work and determine for yourself its validity.

Upon posting this analysis, Andy34 posed the question: does our relatively poor showing in the first (round) reflect any specific regime or is it spread out thru the years?

Much to the chagrin of my wife, I began the task of parsing the data to formulate an answer; the results were rather surprising, and can be found after the jump.

Side note for computer geeks: With 13,224 records (the number of draftees since 1970) downloaded to Excel 2010, plus the quantitative formulas used to analyze this data, it takes my computer 15-30 seconds for every major calculation, which earlier versions of Excel cannot support. My computer is an AMD II Quad Core 840 processor, running at 3.2GHz, so it may take me some time to perform further analysis (I wish I had taught myself a data base program!).

To summarize the previous article, the Steelers far surpass the League when it comes to the average career longevity of its 3rd through 6th round draft picks from 1970 to 2011, and given the correlation of the Longevity Index to the Steelers ranking as the most successful franchise since 1970, my position is I'm against the Steelers packaging any/all of its most successful rounds in order to move up in the first round of the 2012 draft.

Here is the summary of my findings on the correlation between success and average career length of draft picks:

Now to address Andy34's question on how this data is reflected across the regimes of Noll, Cowher, and Tomlin.

Chuck Noll reigned as Head Coach from 1969 through 1992; Dick Haley was the Steelers' Director of Player Personnel (D.P.P) from 1971 through 1990. For purposes of this analysis, I quantified the Longevity Index for Noll for the entirety of his reign, the vast majority of which he worked in conjunction with Haley.

Bill Cowher was Head Coach from 1992 through 2006, and during that time his Director of Player Personnel was split almost evenly (8 yrs and 7 yrs) between Tom Donahoe (1991 through 1999) and Kevin Colbert (2000-2006). I performed an analysis over Cowher's entire career, then broke it down to compare performance between the two D.P.P's.

Mike Tomlin has been Head Coach from 2007 to the present, and has worked solely with Kevin Colbert as D.P.P (and recently promoted to the Steelers' first General Manager in August of 2011).

Side by side, comparing each of the 7 rounds analyzed, it is easy to see where the Steelers enjoyed the majority of their success in terms of career longevity of its draft picks. What was not so readily apparent, until this analysis was completed, was where the majority of that success came from. In the tables below, you can see the progression from coaching period to coaching period:

However, the most startling point of this analysis is the comparison between Noll and Cowher. With 49 fewer picks than Noll (7 yrs, 7 rounds each), Cowher's draft selections far surpass Noll's in terms of career length versus the League average as a whole. While there was some diminishment in most of the "sweet spot" rounds (4 through 6) I advocated that the Steelers not consider packaging to trade up in the first round, the improvement Cowher was able to achieve in the 1st, 2nd and 3rd rounds is remarkable.

Of the three Head Coaches, only Cowher worked with two different D.P.P's and his time with each is almost even. Here are the same charts, but comparing Cowher's time with Donahoe, versus his time with Colbert:

Working with Donahoe, Cowher experienced some slippage in the 1st, 4th, 5th, and 6th rounds, but their dramatic improvements in the 2nd and 7th rounds more than overcome the lower rankings in the other rounds. What is especially important to note is the huge increase in career longevity of the 7th round picks from the Noll period; Cowher was able to select players who played almost 2.25 years longer than Noll was. I have not had time to review the specific players taken by the Steelers in this round to analyze what impact, if any, the change in the number of draft rounds (from a high of 17 rounds in the beginning of Noll's tenure, to 7 rounds beginning in Cowher's second year of 1994) may have on this, but regardless, Cowher and Donahoe's ability to find talent in the 7th round is laudable.

Working with Colbert however, we see that while Cowher's 1st round pick ranking jumped incredibly from 15th to 3rd in the league, the "curse" of the second round returns for the Steelers, although it is still far improved from during the Noll era. Unfortunately, rounds 4 through 7 slipped almost as dramatically.

The table below, as confusing as it may seem, summarizes the winning percentage and the Longevity Index for the three coaching regimes (and splits Cowher's tenure between his two D.P.P.s).

Again, this analysis is not meant to suggest that the team with the highest average career length of its draft picks is most likely to win the Super Bowl; instead, it is meant to draw a correlation between overall success, and the team's ability to select players of the quality and durability that they enjoy longer than average careers in the NFL due to their ability to maintain the level of their play, and to continuously beat out the crop of rookies that come chasing after their jobs, year after year.

What this table indicates again is a correlation between success (as defined by winning percentage) and the average length of the draft picks' careers. Noll had a .594 winning percentage, ranking 5th in the League for his tenure; his Longevity Index ranked 4th. Cowher's winning percentage was .601 overall, ranking 4th; his Longevity Index ranked 2nd over his career. Tomlin's winning percentage is .609 and ranks 2nd in the League for his time; his Longevity Index ranks 23rd, but for an important reason - his Index suffers for Cowher's success.

In all fairness to Mike Tomlin, his tenure has not even reached half the length of Cowher's 14 years, and is only 24% of Noll's 21 years. In addition, upon deeper review of Tomlin's roster shows a large part (38% or 20) of Tomlin's Steelers are carry-overs from the Cowher era, including 11 first or second string defensive players (Aaron Smith, Keisel, Hampton, Farrior, Foote, Polamalu and Taylor, and 9 offensive players, including the franchise quarterback, Hines Ward, and Heath Miller and thus on a quantitative basis, Tomlin would have had to have a psychic's skills in making all of his draft selections given longevity and quality of Cowher's "carry-overs" and the disparity in the number of picks he's had to work with to be able to rank anywhere near the Emperor or Cowher. However, the League's average is measured for the same time frame, so the rankings are valid.

This is not an indictment on Tomlin, but rather a testament to Cowher of his ability to find quality players who perform at a high level for an extended period of time. As has been referenced elsewhere, the Steelers are now truly in a "re-loading" period, and Tomlin's drafting abilities will now be tested, and with it, the quality of his tenure as the Steelers Head Coach will begin to be truly defined.

So, while Chuck Noll has long been referenced as "The Emperor", as originally coined by the late Myron Cope (may he rest in peace and be entered into the Hall of Fame), the true "King" of the Steelers, and the man who contributed the most towards the Steelers overall winning success rate over the last 42 years, was in fact Bill Cowher. While Cowher was only able to reach the Super Bowl twice in his tenure, winning only once in 2005, his ability to position the Steelers to be competitive by selecting players with talent and durability exceeds Nolls, and at this point in his short career, Tomlin's as well.