Following the previous thread, I wanted to see who would win the 2nd wild card if each team plays as expected.
My result is a kind of crazy scenario where the Steelers, Bills, Jets, and Ravens tie at 8-8 and the Steelers then win a very close tiebreaker over the Ravens. Here's how this might play out, with the teams below projected to win most of their home games and to win road games against non-contenders
The Browns, Dolphins, and Raiders have many tough games and can all be expected to be 7-9 or worse.
Of course, if any of these teams - hopefully the Steelers - gets really hot, then it will probably lap the others for the 2nd wild card spot, and the Steelers could still win the division. But at the same time, the Steelers can still lose 1 game (and possibly even 2 games) and still make the playoffs.