That statement can be applied to many years out of the last decade and a half. The Patriots are still largely the same - Tom Brady and a bunch of other guys who fit in with a new system implemented by Bill Belichick over the last season or two.
The Colts are the changed team. Second-year quarterback Andrew Luck built even more on his impressive resume of comeback victories, having pulled out a wild 45-44 win over Kansas City last weekend. Something called T.Y. Hilton is suddenly turning into Mike Wallace 0.5, making big catches for his team in the win.
This game will largely come down to the defenses of each team, and while there's no earthly reason to think Colts coach Chuck Pagano won't be outcoached early and often as he has most of his tenure, we're going to take the risk.
Colts (+7.5) over Patriots.