FanPost

Steelers Will Clinch Playoffs Spot With Win Over Kansas City

I came to work this morning, checked the late game scores from Week 15, and had a feeling I had to crunch some numbers. Crunch I did, and the conclusion I came to is not at all a bad one.

Before the Atlanta game, I had a feeling that the Steelers would afford to lose a game among the three remaining – they would still get in the playoffs at 10-6. That feeling wasn’t entirely based on math, as it required a few games to go a certain way, especially in this past Week 15.

But now I think I this is more straightforward: the Steelers will clinch a Wild Card berth with win over the Chiefs this coming Sunday. Note: this is based on my interpretation of the tie-breaking procedures – meaning that it can never be guaranteed to be mistake-free (I’ll only be happy if anyone points out those mistakes to me).

Let’s get to the numbers. My assumptions are simple: (1) Steelers go 1-1, (2) the worst case scenario is that everybody else who may be relevant goes 2-0. This would mean that either Cincy or Baltimore would probably win the division, and the other one would take the #5 seed – a notion I hate, but strictly for the purposes of this discussion is irrelevant.

Ultimately, we would have this for standings for #6 in the Wild Card:

Team

Overall Record

Conf Record

Pittsburgh

10-6

8-4

San Diego

10-6

7-5

Buffalo

10-6

6-6

The Steelers are in on the third, and the first applicable, tie-breaker for Wild Card standings (best record in coference games). This is where it is kinda good that two of the losses came against ugly NFC South and don’t spoil the stats needed for tie-breaking procedures.

Now, if the Steelers lose to the Chiefs, but win over the Bengals… If the Chiefs follow that up with the win in Week 17 over San Diego, they would get it an #6 at the expense of the Steelers. The relevant portion of the standings would look like this:

Team

Overall Record

Conf Record

Pittsburgh

10-6

8-4

Kansas City

10-6

8-4

Buffalo

10-6

6-6

We would jump into the tie-breaking deal for the three-way situation. Division tie-breakers (step 1) and head-to-head sweeps (step 2) do not apply. On tie-breaker #3 (conference record) Buffalo falls off. Now, here’s the tricky note to the tie-breakers: "If two teams remain tied after the third step or other teams are eliminated, tiebreaker reverts to step 1 of applicable two-team format".

This means that we go back to step 1 for the two-team format: head-to-head, which the Steelers would lose and fall out of the playoff picture.

Therefore, this coming game at Heinz Field is a REAL must-win for the Steelers. Otherwise, the Steelers playoffs hope may once again come down to the Chargers-Chiefs game in Week 17. And I don’t want to live through that again.



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