FanPost

2017 comp pick forecast: at least three, possibly four

Long-time reader, first -time poster, blah blah blah.

I am an avid Steeler fan and draft geek: I used to write a Steelers column for NFLDraftBlitz.com. And I have followed the comp pick projections of AdamJT13 for a long time on KFFL.com. I thought I'd chime in about what his formulas suggest for the Steelers' comp picks next April.

The short answer is that, in addition to all of their regular draft picks (none traded away so far), the Steelers look to gain three comp picks, with the slight possibility of a fourth one late in the 7th round.

Here is the running chart from OverTheCap.com: http://overthecap.com/compensatory-draft-picks-cancellation-chart/

That chart lists the following FA movement for the Steelers, with the projected round of the comp pick for each based on the Average Per Year (APY) of each contract:

Kelvin Beachum 5 $5,375,000
Steve McLendon 6 $3,500,000 Ladarius Green 6 $5,000,000
Sean Spence 7 $2,468,750 Ryan Harris 7 $1,950,000
Antwon Blake 7 $1,500,000
Will Johnson 7 $1,150,000
Non-Qualifying UFAs Lost Non-Qualifying UFAs Gained
Byron Stingily 7 $780,000 Steven Johnson 7 $840,000
Jordan Todman 7 $760,000 Ricardo Mathews 7 $760,000

The closest contracts in the Gained and Lost columns cancel each other out, so the gains of Ladarius Green and Ryan Harris are cancelled by the losses of Steve McLendon and Sean Spence. And any contracts under the predicted cutoff APY of $985,000 do not count towards the formula (with one exception: more on that later.) Also, players who were cut do not count in the formula.

So the Steelers are left with a net gain of three picks due to the losses of Beachum, Blake and Johnson. The latter two will result in 7th round picks, but the comp pick for Beachum is confusing to me. On one OTC page, they list his 5 year, $45 million contract as having an APY of $9 million, but on another it is listed as $5.375 million. The difference in APY would be the difference between getting a 3rd/4th round comp pick and getting a 5th/6th rounder. If anyone can clarify what Beachum's actual APY is, I'd be most grateful.

But there is the possibility of one additional comp pick late in the 7th due to "net value". It is possible that if a team loses more free agents than it gains, or loses FAs of hgiher value than those they gained, they can receive a net value pick in the 7th after the normally qualifying comp picks are given out. OTC's chart only lists Stingly and Todman as non-qualifying FAs lost, and Johnson and Mathews as non-qualifying FAs gained. But they did not list the gaining of David Johnson, nor the losses of Cam Thomas, Brandon Boykin, Terence Garvin or Tyler Murphy (I don't recall if any of these latter four were cut rather than just not resigned.) It is possible that this net value loss could add one more late-7th-round comp pick.

Before anyone says it, I know, I know: "Who cares about 7th round picks?" Rather than suggest every 7th rounder will become the next Brett Keisel, I'll just say that additional picks means additional rolls of the dice towards getting the next generation of core Steeler players, and who doesn't want more rolls of the dice? :) And while the Steelers have missed on plenty of draft picks over the years, they have hit on more of them than most other teams in general, managing to build through the draft in a way that most other NFL teams envy. Cleveland and Cincinnati both should be getting four comp picks next year (and Cleveland also has extra picks in the 1st, 2nd and 5th rounds, and lost their 4th and 7th rounders, due to trades), but what do those teams do with the picks they get? I doubt I'm the only one around here confident in the Steelers' ability to make more of their picks than our division rivals.

So that's my comp pick blather for now. Let me know if I missed on any of the players' contract statuses. Here is more explanation of the projection formula: http://overthecap.com/the-basics-and-methodology-of-projecting-the-nfls-compensatory-draft-picks/

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