I saw the Denver-Indy game a few weeks ago and the Broncos played much better than the final score (38-20) indicated. They led 10-0 after one quarter (including one long impressive TD drive) and trailed 14-13 and 28-20 at the half and 3 quarters. Their D couldn't get off the field in the fourth quarter, giving up two long scoring drives.

The most obvious thing about Denver is they have made so many changes on the line of scrimmage. On offence, the latest injury to C Tom Nalen means they will play Sunday with four new starters on the OL compared to a year ago. Only the LT Lepsis is back. They also have a new TE (Graham) and recently lost blocking TE Nate Jackson to injury. They've actually moved the ball pretty well but struggle in the red zone.

On D their front seven has had a huge turnover, adding some over-the-hill veterans (Adams, Rice) and raw rookies (Moss, Thomas, Crowder). Long-armed DE Elvis Dumervil (four sacks) is by far their best DL. Former OLB DJ Williams is the new MLB, replacing Al Wilson.  They've predictably struggled against the run, but they did a very good job against LT (only 67 yards in 20-plus carries, longest 11 yds) before tiring in garbage time and giving up a long run to Turner. But before that they gave up four long scoring drives (all more than 70 yards) so obviously there are holes and they are vulnerable to a team with multiple offensive weapons. Lynch and Bailey have both been bothered by injuries but Bailey is of course still the best cover guy in the league.  He won't have much fun trying to fend off Hines Ward's blocks however. Santonio Holmes vs. Dre Bly is a very interesting matchup. Overall, the Denver D doesn't seem to have much depth. They have a new defensive coordinator and he has some new schemes which don't seem to be working all that well yet. I can easily envision Faneca galloping down the field and pushing people out of the way for a long run or two.

Looking ahead to Sunday, the Broncos should be primed for their best effort of the season. They've had a week off to rest tired bodies and bruised egos after the home thrashing vs. SD. There will be an emotional pre-game ceremony to honor the two players that died in the offseason. They will probably have Javon Walker back in the lineup but he is bothered by the same knee that was reconstructed a couple years ago. Their receiving corps is good. Second year WR Brandon Marshall is a big target with decent speed. Stokley is a solid third receiver and Graham is better than most TEs. Travis Henry is running on borrowed time, probably just a couple more games until he gets a long suspension for a positive marijuana test, so he will be wanting to go out on a, ummm , high note. Despite the OL changes, they've protected Cutler pretty well (six sacks allowed) and he has had time to find receivers (64.5 per cent completion).  They've outgained opponents in yardage so they must be doing something right at times. Cutler is still pretty raw and makes mistakes (six intercepts) and struggles in the red zone. With the O-line changes, the absence of Nalen and Cutler's inexperience, it adds up to a nice situation for Lebeau to get back to his blitz schemes.

On defense you can expect the Broncos to load up against the run and focus on FWP in much the same way they did LT two Sundays ago. The Steelers might try to loosen things up with some early passing but, either way, we should be able to wear them out over the course of the game. Heath Miller could have some good matchups especially if they bring their safeties up against the run. They're very thin at LB. During the bye week they reportedly worked out nine free agent linebackers and signed one of them.

Denver's special teams are among the worst in the league even though they have two very good kickers. They've had fumbles on returns and given up a return TD.

This might be a good game to evaluate OC Arians because he has a lot of options that could work here in terms of ball possession. I'm sure he expects Denver to bring extra men into the box.  Blitz pickups, finding hot receivers will be important.  We might see a lot of the 2TE set for extra blocking and short hot read options. Arians says he wants to go intermediate-deep five times a game and I see no reason to be intimidated by the sideline matchups, especially Holmes-Bly. Hines is still our No. 1 receiver despite the numbers and will get Bailey most of the time. The Broncos are probably happy with both outside matchups as they line up on paper. We could see the No. 3 slot receiver getting open a lot as mentioned above and Miller breaking into open zones when Ben inevitably has to shrug off some unblocked rushers. Then you have the fact the Broncos are thin defensively and will wear out if we pound the ball, even if it doesn't work right away.  So we could go a lot of different ways offensively and will have to make adjustments depending on how long Denver hangs in.

It only looks that way statwise because they see so few passing attempts, only 103. When teams do decide to pass on them, they're allowing 7.6 YPA, a healthy average for any offense. Champ and Bly are very good, but they're only two guys on an 11-man defense. Miller and the backup WRs should have a big game.

In rushing, total yardage tells the right story - it's pretty bad. They're allowing 5.2 YPC, which is abominable, close to Indy's historicaly-bad season in 2006, when they made Ron Daye look like Barry Sanders.

Loan me some.