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A Closer (Quantitative) Look at Willie Parker vs. the NFL's Best RBs

Blitz recently started a firestorm with his comparison of Willie Parker to the other top running backs in the NFL. The interest and discussion that it stirred up got us thinking even more about which backs we would take over FWP. We decided to look not only at production in the league but also workload (both in the NFL and college) and the amount of money each one currently made. For the sake of this discussion, we left out any player who was a rookie in 2007 since their lack of history in the league would make objective comparisons much more tricky.

Most running backs begin their decline somewhere around 30 years of age, but their workload is another big factor into how quickly their decline turns into their retirement. Running backs like Earl Campbell and Natrone Means are testaments to how heavy workloads can significantly shorten a running backs career. For the sake of this argument though we decided to look back at not only NFL touches, but also their collegiate workload to see just who exactly has taken the most physical punishment amongst the league's experienced and proven backs.

Now we all know that one of the great things about FWP is that he wasn't ever a starter or even part of a regular rotation at UNC, but his lack of playing time wasn't as significant as I had thought. Since he did not play very much, he stayed in school until his senior season where as most of these guys left after their junior year. Therefore, his low number of collegiate carries seems to have saved him a season's worth of `total touches' but not much more. Interestingly Parker's NFL touches are also held pretty low thanks to his lack of receptions. That remains the only category in which he's nearly bottom of the barrel. One thing that amazing to me on this list is the god-awful amount of touches that LaDainian Tomlinson has had over the past 11 years (7 NFL seasons and 4 at TCU) averaging just over 342 touches a season.

Some looking at this list might point out that Jones, Rudi, Jackson and Westbrook haven't been starters for their entire careers or that McGahee wasn't healthy for the beginning of his career, but the fact is that each one of those guys has at least as many starts as FWP. Parker and Jackson have both started 46 games through 4 seasons and Jackson has actually played in three more games in total. The trio of McGahee, Rudi, and Jones has each had at least 13 more starts than FWP. The only guy on the list that has a significantly higher amount of 100 yard games per start is Larry Johnson who has amassed his 27 100 yard games in just 36 starts.

So FWP hasn't been overworked at any point during his career so far, and his production rivals just about every back in the league. The NFL though is a `what have you done for me lately?' business. With that in mind, here are the leading rushers in terms of both yards and attempts for the past three seasons.

So the question that I have for you now is who would you trade straight up for FWP? Before you answer though, look at not only age and workload but also production and contract status.

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Parker
is obviously the best value at RB position over the last 3 seasons.

by WolfpackSteelersFan on Mar 26, 2008 3:39 PM EDT reply actions   0 recs

Great work
All very convincing.  Based on all of this it's hard to argue against Willie being the best bargain long-term answer RB.  You get a top-three producer with fewer miles and much smaller contract than most around him.

by Chicago Steeler on Mar 26, 2008 3:55 PM EDT reply actions   0 recs

Nice Analysis
Nice to see some real numbers and as legitamate an analysis as you can do by numbers alone.

by BadMaafala on Mar 26, 2008 4:32 PM EDT reply actions   0 recs

yea
We thought this would be an appropriate followup to the very subjective, 'shoot from the hip' piece I did for kicks earlier in the week.

by Blitzburgh on Mar 26, 2008 4:37 PM EDT up reply actions   0 recs

He's only getting 3.5M/year?
From the team's perspective, that's gotta be the best deal in NFL history.

Honestly, I think his lack of receptions has been a huge problem for the Steelers. With FWP in the backfield, the defense pretty much knows what's going to happen. Some other RBs, especially LT and Westbrook, are huge two-way threats that make defenses think twice about a massive rush when they suspect a running play.

I never really understood why they don't utilize him more this way, especially last season when it would provide Ben with a quick escape route when the O-line starts to collapse. Has this been bad play-calling or is he just a below-average receiver?

by HinesField on Mar 26, 2008 5:24 PM EDT reply actions   0 recs

i dont think his hands are THAT bad
Portis has had plenty of receptions in his career, and I always thought he looked less than natural catching the ball. Some guys like Westbrook and LT are naturals, but others who have worse hands still get more looks than Parker does.

I think we might see this change some.

by Blitzburgh on Mar 26, 2008 5:28 PM EDT up reply actions   0 recs

Catches for Parker
Yeah, I was hoping they'd throw to him more last year, since he's so good in space, but they never did.  I did see him line up outside a few times, but they obviously didn't do that much.  It's really hard to say if Parker's lack of catches is due to poor route running and catching abilities or cough uncreative play calling.

by BadMaafala on Mar 26, 2008 5:33 PM EDT up reply actions   0 recs

FWP and catching the ball
If the coaching staff doesn't find some way to get him the ball out of the field somehow, that is going to go down as the biggest question mark about his career (at least in my mind). We've heard for two training camps now that 'getting Willie the ball in open space is a priority' and the past two seasons have been a massive disapointment in that area. When I was doing that research it was pretty depressing to see that FWP's average receptions per year was one of the worst (only Rudi J and Jacobs were worse). Sad, sad day when FWP is in the same class with power backs like Rudi and Jacobs.

by cgolden on Mar 26, 2008 5:36 PM EDT up reply actions   0 recs

Wow
Nice analysis Golden. I agree with the comments re FWP and getting him more catches. I put the onus here on Arians and Ben. Getting this done could only help both the passing and rushing game. FWP in space with only a lb or db in striking distance is my recipe for a nightmare.

by RickVa on Mar 26, 2008 8:59 PM EDT reply actions   0 recs

must be
that San Diego sunshine that keeps LT fresh every year.  Great work with the article, Parker is definitely an unbelievable value for us.  Unlike some of the prima donna backs (like Alexander and LJ) he will actually blitz pick-up very well.  This list also made me further appreciate how good LT is.  Truly remarkable that kind of durability in today's NFL with 6'5, 320 DL's throwing themselves at your knees and ankles every down.

by TheMostViolentTeam on Mar 27, 2008 11:35 AM EDT reply actions   0 recs

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