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BTSC Mock Draft - Pick #23 by Pittsburgh Steelers: Kentwan Balmer, DE, North Carolina

After twenty-two picks, we've finally arrived at the Steelers. Who better to make a hypothetical selection for the team than steeler lifer, who most of you know hasn't been able to access the site much since our mock kicked off a few weeks ago. That's unfortunate, but hopefully all will be resolved by the time the real draft has passed so that we may all again enjoy his insights, historical acumen, and sense of humor. Next up? The Tennessee Titans and cgolden.

With the 23rd pick of the NFL Draft, the Steelers select North Carolina defensive lineman Kentwan Balmer. This was an exceptionally difficult decision made easier by the words of Mike Tomlin in his post-season analysis: The Steelers have to get younger, bigger and stronger in the trenches. At 6-4 1/2, 308 pounds, Balmer has the ability to be an instant contributor at least on a rotational basis for starting DEs Aaron Smith and Brett Kiesel, and there is some potential for him usurping Kiesel as the starting DE fairly quickly. With a 3-4 front, quality depth is absolutely essential, not only throughout games but as the season progresses. That lack of depth was a major contributing factor to the team's mediocre second half. The Steelers did not address D-line in the off-season so improvement must come through the draft. Drafting Balmer in the first round provides enough of an upgrade so that the Steelers can use their remaining five draft picks at other positions, without needing to make a significant reach for a D-lineman in subsequent rounds.

Although there has been some discussion about team needs my own assessment is that the Steelers primary need is Offensive Tackle. I am not a Max Starks fan and Marvel Smith is approaching the end of his Steeler career, if not because of injury then because he is probably going to cost too much to be retained after becoming a free agent. Willie Colon has limited upside at tackle and Trai Essex is in my mind strictly a bag-holder. The immediate need at center has been allayed by the signing of Justin Hartwig. If Darnell Stapleton does not make progress this year at camp or during the season, then the Steelers can draft a center next year. At guard there is limited talent but enough bodies, especially if Colon is moved, to come up with a serviceable unit.

After Offensive Tackle the most important needs were: Defensive End; Outside Linebacker; Inside Linebacker; Wide Receiver; Special Teams.

There were three other athletes I considered for the No. 23 pick: OLB Quentin Groves, WR Devin Thomas and OT Gosder Cherilus.

Cherilus is too much of a reach to fill my top perceived need. He had an inconsistent senior season in which he moved from right tackle to left tackle, gave up a few sacks and did not do enough to dismiss the collective assessment that he is strictly a right tackle. I like his athleticism and size and I'm actually pretty optimistic that he will be a good pro. I just thought there wasn't enough of a difference between him and other guys who might be available in the second round (Baker, Brown or Nicks).

WR Devin Thomas would be a terrific addition to the Steelers. He has perhaps the draft's best combination of size, speed and athleticism at the WR position. He is an excellent KO return guy and would be dangerous any time and any way you can get the ball to him. With the departure of Cedric Wilson there is a need for WR depth and Hines Ward will also eventually need to be replaced. Thomas could provide some immediate help in a depth capacity while being groomed as Ward's replacement. My reservation however is that Thomas' meteoric rise in the draft rankings is strictly a product of his ability to test well. He's a great athlete, but from what I have seen is a very raw wide receiver who does not run great routes or possess top-notch hands. In my mind, those are the two most  important attributes of a wide receiver, not how good his body looks or how fast he runs. He has great potential and if the Steelers had extra draft picks this year, it might be worth taking a shot at him. But not with just six draft picks.

My decision finally came down to Balmer or OLB Quentin Groves. I think Groves will be a very good pro and there is an excellent chance he will be the Steelers' real selection in the draft. I would have no problem with that. He is big for the position, fast, strong against the run, a great attacker at the line of scrimmage. He has had some injury problems but he has had a more consistent college career than Balmer and would be a bigger play-maker than Balmer because of the nature of that position in the Steelers' defense. I am not worried about his recent heart surgery. However, unlike DE, the OLB position is already occupied by one Pro Bowl starter (Harrison) and another who will likely someday play in a Pro Bowl (Woodley). Harrison's age is a minor concern only. Right now the position requires depth, which can be addressed in the third or fourth round.

Balmer is not a sure-fire bet. He is regarded by many draft analysts as a "boom or bust" prospect, based primarily on the fact he played so much better as a Senior than in his previous three years at North Carolina. However, I think it's just as logical to think that he is learning and improving. Balmer showed up for his Pro Day in outstanding condition and tested well in drills and the 40. He has a great combination of strength (33 reps of 225 pounds at the Combine) and speed (5.11). He is tall enough (6-4 1/2) and has a long wingspan and good hands to fight through blocks. He can play 3-4 DE or DT in a 4-3 set. As a defensive tackle at North Carolina he was a major disruptor of the line of scrimmage while also contributing 3.5 QB sacks. My only reluctance in picking Balmer is that the nature of the 3-4 DE position does not really require you to draft a guy in the first round to play it. The 3-4 DE is not so much a play-maker as a guy who allows others to make plays. You can often find that kind of guy later in the draft, just as the Steelers did with Aaron Smith and Kiesel. However, I decided to make the choice of picking a guy who can contribute quickly, plays a position of need and has the physical attributes that can make a good defense even better on the line of scrimmage.

Star-divide

BTSC Mock Draft Team Selections

#1 - Miami Dolphins, Darren Mcfadden
#2 - St. Louis Rams, Chris Long
#3 - Atlanta Falcons, Sedrick Ellis
#4 - Oakland Raiders, Vernon Gholston
#5 - Kansas City Chiefs, Jake Long
#6 - New York Jets, Glen Dorsey
#7 - New England Patriots, Dominique Rodger-Cromartie
#8 - Baltimore Ravens, Jerod Mayo
#9 - Cincinnati Bengals, Keith Rivers
#10 - New Orleans Saints, Aqib Talib
#11 - Buffalo Bills, Malcom Kelly
#12 - Denver Broncos, Ryan Clady
#13 - Carolina Panthers, Chris Williams
#14 - Chicago Bears, Brandon Albert
#15 - Detroit Lions, Leodis McKelvin
#16 - Arizona Cardinals, Jeff Otah
#17 - Minnesota Vikings, Derrick Harvey
#18 - Houston Texans, Rashard Mendenhall
#19 - Philadelphia Eagles, Jonathan Stewart
#20 - Tampa Bay Buccaneers, Limas Sweed
#21 - Washington Redskins, Mike Jenkins
#22 - Dallas Cowboys, Felix Jones

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very solid evaluation
However I'm not sold on Balmer. I think Groves might be a better fit, especially if Aaron Smith returns healthy and strong and can play high-level football for at least 3+ more years.

I'm sure we could get him on board with what we're trying to do, but I keep reading his effort has been spotty throughout his career.

by Michael Bean on Apr 16, 2008 11:50 AM EDT reply actions  

Solid
I'm very interested in anything that will get Kiesel out of the starting lineup and back to his situational pass rusher/special teams terror role.

Question for everyone though: If we pass on a OL in the first won't we have to trade up to get a third tier guy (Baker, Nicks, Brown, Collins) in the second or are we talking about getting a guy like (Richardson, Hills)? Then we're talking about getting the 10th or 11th best OT in the draft right? Not exactly the OL help we were looking for heading into this thing.

by cgolden on Apr 16, 2008 11:55 AM EDT reply actions  

Balmer
I think he'd be a solid pick.  His pro day made me higher on him and he'll fill a bigger need than Groves would, as much as I like Groves.  If we don't get our OT in the first round, I think they'll just sit back and see who falls to them in later rounds.  I'd rather have Pollack than Baker or Collins.  The OL isn't going to be fixed this year by the draft, so we just have to make some solid picks there somewhere and be patient.  As we've said elsewhere, we have a tough schedule this year, and Sam Baker isn't going to get us to the Super Bowl.  We should be drafting to fix the problems next year, not this year.  If we draft a center and a later OT prospect, I would be happy with our OL draft.  

by BadMaafala on Apr 16, 2008 12:14 PM EDT reply actions  

First off
I also thought this was a solid evaluation. I would rather have a safer pick, though. The knock that I've heard on Balmer is not only that he's only had one productive year, but even in that year, he took plays off.

by WolfpackSteelersFan on Apr 16, 2008 1:18 PM EDT reply actions  

very interesting pick
I thought you'd go with Cherilus considering Pittsburgh OL problems, but this kid does have some talent. Wouldn't be shcoked to see them take a DL in the first rd.

BTW, Grizz over at BTB did a breakdown of the Cowboys schedule and I think you guys will find this analysis very amusing.

"12/7 @ Pittsburgh - In a strange incident, a Dallas fan charges out of the stands and lands a pile-driver on safety Troy Polamalu after a particularly devastating sack of Tony Romo. With Polamalu sidelined, the Cowboys romp. The fan is later identified at the jail house as just "Terry" and he gives a shoutout to the guys at BTB.
WIN"

by Terry @ Behind the Steel Curtain on Apr 16, 2008 1:57 PM EDT reply actions  

Balmer
I see "bust" written all over this guy...I don't know why...may be it's he really had only 1 productive year...that to me spells trouble...

I'd much rather see us take:

Cherilus in rd 1

"Red" Bryant from Texas A&M rd 2
...he may be a reach in round 2 but as far as adding DL depth, I think he would be ideal...team leader, disruptive, Big...

If Cherilus is gone (If he is available I can not see us passing on him...but that's why I can't wait to see what FO is thinking) I think we go:

Stewart
Groves
Mayo
Hardy (I would much rather trade the pick than pick a WR or CB in round 1)

But CGolden brings up a great point..if we pass on OL in round one, what do we do?  

It seems the next tier of OT will go early second round (Pollack is projected to be gone as well before we pick in round 2)...my hope is that Nicks will fall b/c of his recent arrest...I would draft the guy in a second...basically got arrested for "looking like someone from an asylum"...now that someone I want on my team!...Big, mean, tough...thats what we need on our OL (that's why I think Kemo is going to fill in very well for Fanaca)...

so we need to take the biggest,meanest O-lineman available in round 2...If thats too much of a reach, we'll have to try for value in round 3 on O-line...I'm just not sure which of the second/third tier O-lineman (other than Nicks) projects best for us...

by SteelerMike on Apr 16, 2008 3:29 PM EDT reply actions  

I like your
evaluation. I would be happy if we took a true DL man in the 1st, but I view Balmer much like you view Cherilus. He is a reach at number 23. His measurable are basically the same as Dre Moore which most mock drafts have going in round two. I was kind of hoping we could get him, but it looks like he would be gone before we pick. Trading down into later in the 1st or out of the 1st round is starting to sound better and better.

No value behind this point, but when I think of great defensive players from NC I think of NC state not the Tarheels.

by SteelBuckeye on Apr 16, 2008 5:57 PM EDT reply actions  

Chuck Amato's upside
He sure brought us some great defenders. Too bad his post Philip Rivers offenses were so bad. Actually, it wasn't even so much that the offense was bad, but that he developed a team that inexplicably found ways to lose. We had the only team ever to rank number 1 in the nation in overall defense and have a losing record.

Anyway, I know that was off topic. And, I hope that your perception of great defenders coming from NC State rather than UNC continue. :)

by WolfpackSteelersFan on Apr 16, 2008 6:14 PM EDT up reply actions  

If We Pass On An OT
we still have Colon, Starks and Smith that can start. It will just increase the pressure on the FO to sign Marvel Smith long term or sign Starks and move him to LT. The other options next year are FA or a mid rounder ready to play in 09 or the 09 draft.
Based on the draft that is on BTSC I agree with the pick of Balmer. Why reach for an OT that definitely won't play this year? It is true the Steelers biggest need is OT but their biggest needs are in the trenches. Unless there is someone like Albert or Otah available the Steelers will need to go with best athlete available. If that is Balmer so be it. He will get on the field in 08 with our DL rotation and could be an instant contributor. If they take him they need to be sure he isn't a bust.
When You Run The Ball Good Things Happen

by 5020 on Apr 16, 2008 6:24 PM EDT reply actions  

Maybe you
all in PA can expand on this, but from what I read Otah is not really better than Cherilus. Both seem to be pure a RT.

by SteelBuckeye on Apr 16, 2008 7:00 PM EDT up reply actions  

Not An Expert
on the college game. Only know what I read here and other places. Otah seems to be more highly regarded than Cherilus as a RT. I am not a huge fan of Otah but he seems to be rising and would have to fall to 23 for us to have an opportunity at him. I see Otah as a more inexpensive alternative to Starks.
When You Run The Ball Good Things Happen

by 5020 on Apr 16, 2008 7:42 PM EDT up reply actions  

Otah vs. Cherilus
Otah has the 'high ceiling' label b/c he hasn't played football that long. Opinions vary anywhere from he can be a dominant LT to he isn't smart enough to learn an NFL playbook. He's tested and interviewed so badly that he might slip all the way to 23.

Cherilus is a finished product, by most accounts. He's started as every year since his redshirt freshman year.

It's really a classic case of a known commodity vs. an unknown commodity. Would you rather have the high risk, high reward pick or the low risk, lower reward pick?

by cgolden on Apr 17, 2008 2:01 PM EDT up reply actions  

conservative
I like the Otah pick better than Balmer...but I still worry about the "bust"/"high-ceiling" factor...

But Otah v. Cherilus, I would always take the guy with 50+ career starts, whose been very productive vs. good competiton...you know what your getting.

It could be very painful to "swing and miss" on a 1st round pick...especially on the o-line...

by SteelerMike on Apr 17, 2008 7:54 PM EDT reply actions  

The more I think about, I agree with
Cherilus. He may not be as good some others, but I like a solid safe pick over a boom or bust guy. If you're a solid team without many needs, you can take the risk, but our needs at OL are enough for me to say take the safe pick.

by WolfpackSteelersFan on Apr 17, 2008 8:19 PM EDT up reply actions  

Question
Safe OL pick or Balmer, CB Jeninks/Carson, Groves/Mayo, or Stewart?

by SteelBuckeye on Apr 17, 2008 9:13 PM EDT reply actions  

In this order
  1. Safe OL pick
  2. Stewart
  3. Mayo (Blitz is winning me over on Mayo) not sure about Groves
  4. CB with good hands

by WolfpackSteelersFan on Apr 18, 2008 9:42 AM EDT up reply actions  

My order
OL (still alittle higher on Otah than Cherilus)
Balmer
Mayo before Groves
CB
Stewart

I'd also take a WR (not named Kelly) over Stewart if that was a choice.

by cgolden on Apr 18, 2008 9:46 AM EDT up reply actions  

My order for round 1
O-line: Cherilus then Otah
Stewart
Groves

Trade
    if these players aren't available, really look to trade down and pick up an extra 2nd or 3rd pick

WR
     I don't like Kelly, may have attitude problems...Hardy, Sweed have potential but also come with various "issues"...too risky at 23...3 wideouts I like in later rounds: Jordy Nelson-Kansas,  Jerome Simpson-Coastal Carolina, Ernie Wheelwright-Minnesota...

RB
     I usually don't like RB's in round 1...but Stewart has grown on me...looks real good...if top O-lineman are gone and we can't trade down and he is available, he would be hard to pass on...

ILB
     Mayo would be tempting...but at ILB I also really like Curtis Lofton-OK...if he is around in round 2 and FO wants an ILB he would be a great value...I like him in round 2 as a better value than Mayo in round 1...

by SteelerMike on Apr 18, 2008 10:06 PM EDT reply actions  

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