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Part II: A Quantitative Comparison of Big Ben and Other QBs Mega Contracts

Bumped. TheMostViolentTeam is back with some follow up work on comparing Big Ben's contract with some of the higher paid QBs in the NFL. If you missed the first entry we did comparing it with Peyton Manning and Tom Brady's contracts, check it out here. Like last time, he's done the vast majority of the work, while I've just lent a few thoughts here and there, particularly on the Drew Brees section. Great work by TheMostViolentTeam once again. Stay tuned for his 3rd entry in the series where he will be introducing us to a new metric I've yet to seen anywhere.

-Blitz-

Update [2008-4-3 18:17:29 by TheMostViolentTeam]:Apologies to all. Had the wrong cap info and thus wrong cap % numbers for Hasselbeck. Fixed and updated, fortunately barely changed his numbers, and did not affect analysis.

-TMVT-

Objective:

This is part II of a three-part, quantitative look at the top QB's in the league, and how our own Ben Roethlisberger stacks up value wise, specifically relating to his new contract and it's allocation within the team's larger salary cap figures.  In Part 1 we looked simply at Ben and the two very best QB's in the league, Peyton Manning and Tom Brady.  In part II we're expanding our focus and looking at the quarterbacks most would consider in the same "league" as Ben.  Since you've already seen Ben's numbers I won't bother re-hashing them, but our general conclusion was that he was paid adequately, not TOO much, and not too little (did anyone think 102 million was too little?).

A quick recap of our initial anaylysis of Ben's contract:

Ben Roethlisberger:

Ben signed a 8 year, $102 million dollar deal just recently as we all know. Ben is 26 years old and widely regarded as a top 5 QB, with the potential to be one of the greatest of all-time. People may scoff at that proclamation, but when you consider his abundant playoff experience and success at such a young age, plus the transformation of Pittsburgh's offense, there's no telling what kind of numbers and victories he might mount up if he stays healthy.

It was first reported the deal had $36 million in guarantees, although more recently I've seen $33.2 in a few places, so I'll go with that (and the $3 million wouldn't really make a difference in the analysis anyways). The salary cap in the upcoming season is approximately $116 million dollars. Thus, we can extract the following numbers.

Total/Guaranteed: $102/$33


Total Paid Per Year/Guaranteed Prorated Over Life Of Deal: $12.75/$4.125


Total Salary Cap ($116) Allocation by % of Total Paid Per Year/Guaranteed Prorated Per Year: ~11% / ~ 4%

So, if Ben reaches all the provision of the contract, he will make on average $12.75 million per year. The organization may be hedging their bets that he will not do so, but the agreed upon terms at least reflects that they are willing to allocate roughly 11% of their cap space on Ben over the course of the next decade. Of course, if/when the cap jumps, this % would decrease accordingly, but let's say for organization's sake, that it should remain roughly between 8-12%. If Ben were to tragically get hurt or forget how to throw the ball altogether and was cut this year, he would only make the guaranteed portion, or roughly 4% of the team's cap space, as is allowed by the rule in the Collective Bargaining Agreement that lets teams spread out the exorbitant costs of giving guaranteed money to today's players.

 

First up, our friend from the AFC North:

Carson Palmer:

Palmer signed a 9-year, $118 million dollar contract in late 2005 (it became effective for the '06 season) right as he was in the midst of leading the Bengals to their best season since the late '80s and their first postseason apperance under new head coach Marvin Lewis. The contract included a whopping $38 million guaranteed.  At the time of this deal, I thought it looked clear he was well on his way to joining Brady & Manning at the very pinnacle of the QB position, oh how times change.

Total/Guaranteed: $118/$38

Total Paid Per Year/Guaranteed Prorated Over Life Of Deal: $13/$4.22

Total Salary Cap ($102 - 2006 cap figure) Allocation by % of Total Paid Per Year/Guaranteed Prorated Per Year: ~ 13% / ~4.14 %

While I believe, and most analysts agree that it seems Palmer has all the tools to be great, he hasn't quite had a great year by any stretch since that '05 year when the Bengals won the AFC North.  He can make every throw and probably throws the most accurate deep ball in the game, particularly the long out route to either TJ or Chad Johnson.  Cincy coaches say he asks the receivers which shoulder they want it thrown to on deep routes, and he usually hits his mark.  By far he is the quarterback on this list who I fear the most when things are clicking for him and the Bengals' offense.  However, he hasn't delivered the way I (and I think most others) thought he would the past two years while at the peak of his physical career..  His lack of success - relatively speaking - is either related to the ridiculous environment in Cincinnati, or some "it" factor that Palmer is missing. As a result, the contract now seems a little steep, but it is certainly not too late for him to turn things around and again be considered one of the elite franchise QBs in the game worth breaking the bank for.  Being a Steelers fan, this is hard to say, but I'd like to see him get it going again and have some great Bengals v. Steelers showdowns, not to mention the Ben vs. Carson banter that would follow in its wake in future years.  Palmer at his best is a sight to see.  

Marc Bulger:

Before the 2007 season Bulger signed a 6-year, $65 million dollar deal, which included $27 million in guarantees.  Bulger successfully unseated Kurt Warner a few years ago and his results, much like St. Louis's play in general, have been up and down.  He is a bit streaky, but when given a little bit of time he can make quick decisions and releases the ball extremely quickly.

Total/Guaranteed:  $65/$27

Total Paid Per Year/Guaranteed Prorated Over Life Of Deal: $10.83/$4.5

Total Salary Cap ($109 - 2007 figure) Allocation by % of Total Paid Per Year/Guaranteed Prorated Per Year: ~ 10 % / ~ 4.13 %

Like I said, Bulger can be streaky, but if the Rams get their O-line in shape, and re-establish a good running game with Stephen Jackson, Bulger can be extremely lethal from the QB spot.  The deal looks pretty decent from St. Louis's standpoint, as they got a solid quarterback who still has a little bit of room to possibly improve. Of the QBs examined in this piece though, his % allocation of the team's salary cap is the second highest, behind only Carson Palmer. However, he's probably not the 2nd best of the bunch in terms of production or future potential. Although Bulger belongs in the same breath as the best when he's at his best, the Rams gave a vast sum of guaranteed money to a guy who has taken an absolute pounding (uh-oh Steelers fans) the past two years, and that pounding caught up with him in the '07 season as he played thru some broken ribs and missed a number of games as well.   Let's hope Ben's fate is not the same and we upgrade our O-Line!

Tony Romo:

Ah, this one should generate some buzz from a certain Dallas fan perusing BTSC.  Romo signed a six-year, $67.5 million dollar deal in the middle of the '07 season (effective with '08 cap numbers), which included $31 million in guaranteed money.  At the time of the deal Romo was in the midst of a great start to the season for Dallas, and had mostly erased any doubters who thought he would be haunted by his epic playoff gaffe against the Seahawks.

Total/Guaranteed:  $67.5/$31

Total Paid Per Year/Guaranteed Prorated Over Life Of Deal: $11.25/$5.2

Total Salary Cap ($116) Allocation by % of Total Paid Per Year/Guaranteed Prorated Per Year: ~ 9.7 %/ ~ 4.5 %

We are starting to see a trend here:  When it comes to QB's at least, most teams do their homework and pay the guy just the right amount.  Romo's cap % numbers are in the range with all the QBs in our discussion so far. He's given a smaller cut of his team's allocated total sum to spend than guys like Palmer, Manning, Brady, and Ben, but still close to 10% and more than what most QBs with so little experience are given.   His guaranteed money as a % is a bit higher than most, but we can chalk that up to Jerry Jones' fat wallet, and Romo being a bit older, thus demanding more money set in stone. While rarely described as quick or athletic, Romo has great pocket sense and does a fantastic job avoiding the rush and making plays out of nothing. If you couple his natural playmaking ability with the likelihood that he should continue to improve as he gets more seasoning, it makes sense why Dallas is confident in paying Romo big bucks to lead the Cowboys for the forseeable future. Behind that big offensive line Dallas has, and with all those offensive weapons at his disposal for the next few years (his rapport with TE extraordinare Jason Witten is remarkable), Romo should continue to put up good numbers and keep the Cowboys in the win column.  After years of Quincy Carter, Vinny Testaverde and Drew Henson, a big sigh of relief for Dallas fans.


Romo has admirably made his playoff blunder in 2006
a distant memory and got paid as a result

Drew Brees:

Brees may not be the flashiest guy or the prototypical QB in terms of size and arm strength, but he did turn in an MVP caliber season during his first year in New Orleans in 2006. If the Chargers' GM AJ Smith hadn't incorrectly calculated that Brees had reaches his ceiling and could be easily replaced by Phillip Rivers, I really believe the 'Bolts may have been in a Super Bowl either in '06 or '07.  Brees signed a free-agent deal to come to New Orleans for six years, $60 million dollars, with a relatively skimpy $20 million in guarantees. At the time this raised eyebrows as he was coming off of shoulder surgery, and was essentially ditched by the Chargers, but he has since erased any doubts about his shoulder.

Total/Guaranteed:  $60/$20

Total Paid Per Year/Guaranteed Prorated Over Life Of Deal: $10/$3.33

Total Salary Cap ($102) Allocation by % of Total Paid Per Year/Guaranteed Prorated Per Year: ~ 9.8 %/ ~ 3.26 %

All you can say is wow.  New Orleans probably got a little bit lucky with this deal, because in my book, Brees is one of the ten best QB's in the league without question, and probably deserves consideration as one of the top-5 QBs by now.  Look at it this way, Reggie Bush has a bigger deal than Drew Brees.  Who is more important to the NO offense?  The knock on Brees forever has been his height, but he makes up for it with good footwork, and solid pocket presence. You would think that people would have learned not to bet against him by now. He didn't get a sniff from the two schools in his backyard, Texas or Texas A&M, due to his heighth (where his relatives played at back in the day). The doubt in him has carried over to the professional ranks and likely will remain that way until his career winds down. New Orleans might not have enough talent to really be a contender in the next few years, they should be in the thick of the playoff hunt, as well as put on one hell of a show on offense, with Brees at the helm.

Matt Hasselbeck:

Last but certainly not least, the leader of our Super Bowl XL opponent.  Hasselbeck is playing on a six-year $47 million dollar deal with $16 million in guaranteed money.  This deal was signed before the '05 season and I'm amazed he hasn't tried to put pressure on the team to renegotiate yet.  As we'll see in part III, this might be the best "value" deal of all the top-tier QB's in the league, in terms of wins delivered.  

Total/Guaranteed:  $47/$16

Total Paid Per Year/Guaranteed Prorated Over Life Of Deal: $7.8/$2.6

Total Salary Cap ($85.5) Allocation by % of Total Paid Per Year/Guaranteed Prorated Per Year: ~ 9.1 %/ ~ 3 %


Despite strulling in his lone SB apperance
Hasselbeck provides top value for the
Seahawks by every conceivable metric

Another QB who isn't very flashy, Hasselbeck plays the West Coast system extremely efficiently.  The system masks his weakness (deep ball) and highlights his strengths (short, quick throws).  I never thought of Hasselbeck as being in the upper-tier, maybe just outside of it, but you can't argue with how much Seattle has won during his tenure. They are constantly near the top of the NFC not only in their division, but in the entire conference as well.  Either way, his deal is absolutely tiny in total dollars, per year dollars, and % of cap space compared to his slightly younger and more physically gifted brethren.  His upside is definitely limited due to his age, but he should remain a solid constant under Mike Holmgren for at least a few more seasons.

Conclusion:

These numbers further verified my initial belief that the Steelers got a good price on Big Ben.  His guaranteed per-year numbers and % cap space numbers line up pretty well with Palmer, Bulger, and Romo. Considering that Ben is the youngest of these four and has the most playoff success, (not to mention a SB, a record for wins as a rookie QB, etc) the data further underscores how reasonable of a deal we got. While Palmer and Romo certainly could out-produce Ben in the next few years, it wouldn't be by much, and Ben's youth will give him an extra few years to make up the difference.  Brees and Hasselbeck are both absolute steals for the skills they bring to the table but are also much older and not nearly as "explosive" on the field as the first four we looked at.  I would love to have Ben for Brees or Hasselbeck-type money, but if either of them had put up the numbers Ben had early in their careers, no way would they be on contracts like the ones they have now.  

The opinions shared here are not those of the editorial staff of Behind the Steel Curtain or SB Nation. These posts are not approved in any way by the editorial staff of this web site.