via assets.sbnation.com

7 PM PST -- Friel Court at Beasley Coliseum

Pac-10 GameTracker

Kenpom.com prediction: Bears win 58-57 (60 possesions, 54 percent confidence)

PROBABLE STARTERS 

Heading into the season, this was one of those games we pointed to as one the Cougs needed to win. It's still a game the Cougs need to win, although for far different reasons than we all thought.

Cal has established itself as a legitimate NCAA Tournament contender, while the Cougs seem to be on the verge of slipping into irrelevance just two weekends into the conference schedule. Giving the 2-0 Bears their comeuppance would go a long way toward re-establishing confidence that this season still can be more than just a rebuilding year.

It's tempting to think that the difference maker for the Bears has been diminutive point guard Jerome Randle, who has raised his scoring average from 11.8 points to 19.5 points and assists from 3.8 to 5.1. But the real difference -- no surprise for a Montgomery team -- has been the Bears' defense. I'm not sure what's being done different, as I haven't seen this team yet (and I'm not going to tonight, either -- thanks FSN!), but their eFG% allowed is down from 51.9 in 07-08 (255th nationally) to 46.0 (75th).

That, of course, is not good news for a team that can't score. But there is room for optimism. This is yet another opponent that lacks a legitimate inside presence, and Aron Baynes ought to be able to make some hay ... if he can get enough touches and shots.

Offensively, it's tempting to look at the Bears' gaudy 3-point shooting percentage -- 50.5, first in the country -- and think they're exclusively a jack-it-up team. But they actually only attempt 3's on less than a quarter of their shots (23.3 percent, 334th nationally). What they are is remarkably efficient with their 3's, and they're due for an off shooting night at some point. Nobody shoots 50 percent on 3's for the season.

I've got a good feeling about tonight, believe it or not. I've got a sneaking suspicion that the Bears have started to believe their own myth, and I think Tony Bennett's got some wrinkles in store for Mike Montgomery. And if this team can't get fired up to defend its home court after what happened on Saturday ... well, then we've got bigger problems than we thought.

Obviously, the game's not on TV tonight, but for as much as we make fun of the Pac-10 around here, they do one thing right: Their GameTracker (linked at the top) is actually pretty cool. Watching that in tandem with Bud's call of the game on your local affiliate (or by itself if you're out of the area) isn't half bad, given the circumstances.

JOIN THE GAME THREAD NOW!

Sorry I didn't get it up sooner, but it'll be up at precisely 6:45. SBN's interface doesn't allow for immediate posting of game threads, so I had to schedule it. Unfortunately, I finished it at 6:31 p.m. meaning it has to sit in the hopper for 14 minutes. Bummer.

If you're itching to start talking about the game, you can do it here ...

For two years, it seemed like everything came so easy to Tony Bennett. Whether it was having the job his father came out of retirement to groom handed to him, or guiding his first two teams to the NCAA Tournament at a school that previously had amounted to Pac-10 purgatory for years, Bennett always seemed to have the Midas touch.

Now? Bennett's just another coach trying desperately to figure out which buttons to push in an attempt to make a difference with a team that's struggling.

And those struggles have been well documented. I'll spare you the "beating a dead horse" gif, but suffice it to say that while this team is as stingy on defense as ever, the offense has been flat terrible against legitimate, big-conference competition, averaging just an 84.2 efficiency rating (what's that?). Contrast that with a 111.9 rating against the small-major competition that has made up the rest of the schedule. (In case you're not sufficiently agape at that gap, in a typical 60-possession game for the Cougs, that's a 17-point difference.)

Over the past two years, Bennett earned a well-deserved reputation as a supreme game manager -- a guy unafraid to tinker with personnel and tactics to win a game. His halftime adjustments became the thing of legends, as his teams were famous for turning first-half deficits into victories. Bennett was regarded as a coach who got every ounce of potential out of every one of his players.

But this year, the story has been much different. His teams are melting down in the second half. He's got a number of players who appear to be underperforming. And, perhaps most puzzing, he's been remakably vanilla in his personnel adjustments in spite of all the struggles, electing to stick with his upperclassmen, even as they falter in spectacular fashion.

In searching for what might be done differently to try and get some more out of this offense, I decided to analyze the proportion of minutes going to each player for the Cougs. Here are how the minutes broke down in the first three games against "like" competition, as the Cougs went 1-2 against MSU, Pitt and Baylor with an average efficiency rating of 85.0:

1. Rochestie    37.3
2. Thompson    31.5
3. Koprivica    30.2
4. Baynes    27.7
5. Harmeling    26.5
6. Forrest    19.7
7. Casto    15.2
8. Capers    8.5
9. Lodwick    1.8
10. Harthun    1.3
    

Clearly underwhelmed by these offensive performances, Bennett elected to go with an even more upperclassmen-heavy rotation in the next three games against "like" competition, giving Caleb Forrest major minutes against Gonzaga and inserting him into the starting lineup against LSU and UW:

1. Rochestie    37.0
2. Thompson    30.3
3. Forrest    29.7
4. Koprivica    29.0
5. Baynes    26.7
6. Harmeling    22.3
7. Casto    13.0
8. Capers    7.7
9. Lodwick    2.3
10. Harthun    1.3

But while we all like Forrest and appreciate his perceived contributions to the offense, his increased playing has not made a positive impact on the overall effectiveness of the unit. The results were largely the same for this rotation change, as the Cougs went 0-3 with an average 83.4 efficiency rating.

The interesting thing to me is looking where Forrest's minutes have come from. Rochestie, Thompson, Koprivica and Baynes all have had essentially consistent minutes across all six games; guys who have seen their minutes decrease include Harmeling, Casto and Capers.

Really, all Bennett has done is shuffle the minutes in the frontcourt -- he hasn't really changed the essential nature of his approach to getting his players to put the ball in the basket. Rather than Harmeling getting the bulk of the minutes at the 4, those minutes are now going to Forrest, with Harmeling getting some run at the 3 and Casto seeing the floor less.

That  speaks volumes about how Bennett perceives are the strengths of his team. We knew he preferred a perimeter oriented motion attack over the past two years, but it made sense with guys like Kyle Weaver and Derrick Low in the fold. Now? I'm pretty sure it doesn't make sense anymore. Despite the overwhelming evidence, Bennett has continued to stick with his guards.

But if Bennett wants to get the most out of this team, he might need to rethink his love affair with his perimeter players. I've got two suggestions if Tony's reading.

First of all, trade some defense for offense. I know this is sacrilege in the Bennett world, but the truth is that this team has some room to fudge on the defensive end. Only Gonzaga has truly run away from the Cougs, as the offensive efficiency numbers of WSU's other opponents were held around 100 or below before being inflated by late-game free throws. This team can afford to give up a little defense if it can somehow add some offense in exchange.

To me, this primarily means getting Koprivica off the floor. As much as I can appreciate Nik's contributions on defense, the offense seems to just grind to a near standstill when he's in the game. Those pretty drives, such as that slicing thing of beauty on Saturday, are way too few and far in between. He dribbles too much, still is shooting too many 3's -- I hate to say I told you so, but he's just 3 for his past 12 in these games -- and when he does decide to pass, he's indecisive. We've got to get more from this position.

Who should Bennett turn to? I'm not sure. But whether it's Capers or one of the little-used reserves, Harthun or Lodwick, Bennett's got to give them a longer leash than what he's shown so far. Bennett has done a remarkable Lou Piniella impression this year, as it feels like the first time one of the young guys makes a mistake -- especially on defense -- he finds a seat on the pine.

This, of course, is in stark contrast to the upperclassmen, who seem to be able to make as many mistakes as they can muster without threat of consequence. Even though there clearly were problems after MSU, Pitt and Baylor, Bennett went more and more conservative as the season has slipped farther and farther away. Here's to hoping it's not too late to give one of these guys a chance to infuse some offense while the season is still salvageable.

Second, make this an interior-orented offense. The best scorer on this team is Aron Baynes. Yet Baynes is only averaging the third-most shots on the team. That's a disgrace. Even more puzzling about it is that Baynes seems to be the one guy on the team who relishes having the ball in his hands -- he looks like a guy who would love to take the scoring burden on this team.

Unfortunately, the Bennett motion offense just doesn't put a high priority on getting the ball into the post. No matter how much they want to get the ball to Baynes, their offensive sets simply aren't going to provide those looks often enough, because it's not what they're designed to do. It's time to put in some more sets designed to get Baynes the ball, and run them more frequently.

Bennett also might want to take one more step in acknowledging that the frontcourt is his strength and start playing some bigger lineups. What's to stop the Cougs from putting Casto, Forrest and Baynes all on the floor at the same time? No, there's not a 3-point threat in that bunch, but Forrest presents enough range that the trio should be able to play on the together without stepping on each other too much. And Casto possesses the athleticism to guard smaller quicker guys; while he would play the 4 on offense, he could at least adequately guard the other team's 3 on defense. For example, how different might Saturday have been with Casto on Quincy Pondexter?

If this team became more interior oriented, you might just find a nice side-effect: Taylor Rochestie and Klay Thompson start playing better, thanks to decreased pressure.

Whatever the solution, we know something radically different has to be done. This team cannot simply settle for shuffling minutes around among similar players. It's time for a pretty radical shift in approach.

With the conference season tipping off tonight, I figured I'd give you my quick look at where we stand heading into the 18 games that truly will decide each team's postseason fate.

What follows is a short breakdown of each team, ordered in my own little power ranking. (I didn't take into account tonight's games, FYI, since I started working on the post this afternoon.) And don't look now, but the "weak" Pac-10 is now the No. 2 rated conference by Ken Pomeroy.

1. UCLA (10-2)

Pomeroy Ranking: 16

Quick Take: The Bruins are still the class of the Pac-10. They might not be the 1,000-pound gorilla they've been over the past few years and might not be a shoo-in for their fourth consecutive Final Four, but they're still very, very good. The team defense is down just a tick, and J'Mison Morgan hasn't exactly been the replacement for Kevin Love that UCLA fans thought he might be, since he's only averaging 7.2 minutes a game.

But they still generate a ton of turnovers, and Darren Collison is one of the most efficient players in the country (No. 45 in offensive rating and No. 53 in eFG%). The most pleasant suprise for UCLA has been the play of guard Michael Roll. The junior supersub has the No. 2 offensive rating in the country, and is shooting a ridiculous eFG% of 73.4, which would also be No. 2 if he had played enough minutes to qualify.

The Bruins have been destroying some less-than-impressive competition since losing to No. 7 Texas so who knows how much they've improved since that loss, but with an experienced squad and Ben Howland on the sidelines, they're still my odds on favorite to win the conference title.

2. Arizona State (11-1)

Pomeroy Ranking: 9

Quick Take: The Sun Devils are the highest rated Pac-10 team by kenpom.com, but it's tough to know just how good they really are after yet another typically creampuff nonconference schedule. ASU has played just one true road game (for the second consecutive year), and lost its only real test against Baylor.

But the Sun Devils have the No. 1 effective field goal percentage and No. 4 adjusted offensive efficiency in the country thanks in large part to a weapon that no one in the conference can match: James Harden. Want to know just how good Harden has been? Read this piece at Basketball Prospectus. It's a couple of weeks old, but still relevant. The guy is an absolute stud, ranking in the top 100 nationally in percentage of his team's shots taken, offensive rating, effective field goal percentage, free throw rate and assist rate. He's a one-man wrecking crew.

Jeff Pendergraph has also been very good, but the Devils are thin up front. Depth there might be an issue against Pac-10 teams with better big men than the Devils have faced this season.

3. USC (9-3)

Pomeroy Ranking: 41

Quick Take: The offense has been inconsistent, but the defense has been typically sound under Tim Floyd. Only the loss to Seton Hall raises eybrows, as losses to Missouri and Oklahoma -- especially with as close as the latter was -- are nothing to be ashamed of. The offense has been inconsistent at best, but that's to be expected as the Trojans figure out how to replace to production of OJ Mayo and Davon Jefferson.

Dwight Lewis has taken on the bulk of the scoring load, while Taj Gibson has been his usual beastly self inside, posting seven double-doubles already to go along with the No. 17 block percentage in the country. But what truly makes this a team on the come is freshman sensation DeMar DeRozan, who Floyd says is "growing in front of our eyes right now." Also keep an eye on junior Daniel Hackett. He's a player I've been down on in the past, but he's quietly blossoming into one of the top point guards in the Pac-10.

If there's one thing Floyd has proven, it's that he can grow a team over the course of a year so that it's playing its best ball by March. He's well on his way to doing it again.

4. Cal (11-2)

Pomeroy Ranking: 32

Quick Take: And here we have our first big surprise of the season. I said before the year that the Bears could be the surprise team of the conference, and don't look now, but Mike Montgomery has the Bears playing some mighty fine basketball. Their only two losses came to a decent Florida State in Las Vegas and a very good Missouri on the road -- no shame in that.

How have the Bears done it? By turning a mediocre defense in 2007-08 (No. 152 adjusted defensive efficiency) into one of the better ones this year (No. 66) while maintaining the offense, even with the loss of Ryan Anderson to the NBA. I thought Patrick Christopher might be one of the surprise players in the Pac-10 this year, but it's been point guard Jerome Randle who's been the difference maker for Montgomery. His stats are up across the board, as he's averaging 19.5 points and 4.8 assists.

I believe now more than ever that Cal is poised for a WSU-like jump into the top half of the conference.

5. Arizona (9-3)

Pomeroy Ranking: 42

Quick Take: The Wildcats have played far better than anyone had any right to expect in the wake of Lute Olson's retirement just after the start of official practices. Forget about the comically absurd loss to UAB and the close loss to Texas A&M; the Wildcats have impressive wins over Gonzaga and Kansas to hang their hats on come Tournament time.

It doesn't hurt that they've got the most talented trio in the conference with Nic Wise, Chase Budinger and Jordan Hill. The three account for 65 percent of the Wildcats' scoring, 56 percent of their rebounds, 59 percent of their assists. Hill has been especially impressive, leading the team in scoring and averaging a double-double.

Coach Russ Pennell deserves a lot of credit for getting this team to play as well as it has and on track for yet another NCAA Tournament berth. For all the hand-wringing by Olson and the players about the slower pace played under Kevin O'Neill last year, Arizona is playing at an even slower pace this year, although they've played faster recently. Pennell is clearly doing something right.

6. Stanford (10-0)

Pomeroy Ranking: 30

Quick Take: The Cardinal finished the nonconference slate without a loss, and while there isn't really a win over an impressive opponent in the bunch, most of the wins were by double digits, including a 111-66 thrashing of Texas Tech. Stanford's adjusted offensive and defensive efficiency are both ranked in the top 40 nationally under first-year coach Johnny Dawkins.

Anthony Goods has really stepped up his production, leading the way with 18.4 points per game, but it's been a balanced attack, as the Cardinal feature four players averaging double figures. Part of that is due to Stanford playing much faster this year than at any point in recent memory, averaging more than 71 possessions, a pace befitting the smallish squad left in the wake of the defections of the Lopez sisters twins and graduation of Taj Finger.

But that small frontcourt might prove to be the Cardinal's undoing. They're already giving up the 40th highest 2-point field goal percentage in the country and blocking only 7.7 percent of their opponents shots (203rd). Contrast that with the sixth-best 2-point field goal percentage and No. 36 block percentage last year, and you wonder how Stanford will hold up against legitimate big men, which most teams in the Pac-10 possess.

7. Washington State (8-4)

Pomeroy Ranking: 40

Quick Take: The Cougs were the picture of consistency in the nonconference schedule, beating the crud out of teams they were supposed to beat, going 1-1 against middle-of-the-road SEC teams, and going 0-3 against ranked teams. If this team has any hope of making the NCAA Tournament for the third year in a row, it's going to have to make some hay in the conference schedule.

The defense has been as good as ever, holding all opponents but Baylor, Gonzaga and LSU to efficiencies under 100. But the offense ... oh, that offense. It's bad. Real bad. And if the Cougs want to get up into the top half of the conference, Tony Bennett's going to have to come up with some answers in a hurry. The defense is good enough to win some games all by itself, but unless the offense gets better, this is shaping up to be a remake of 2005-06.

8. Washington (9-3)

Pomeroy Ranking: 24

Quick Take: The Pomeroy Ranking suggests I ought to have the Huskies higher than this, but let's just say I'm a little bit skeptical considering they lost all three games they played away from Hec Ed, including a season-opening debacle at Portland. But there's no denying UW has been impressive at home, posting a dominant win over Oklahoma State (No. 49 Pomeroy) and a nice win without Jon Brockman over an underrated Portland State team (No. 88 Pomeroy) that would be Gonzaga in Spokane a little over a week later.

Brockman has been his usual dominant self inside, averaging a double-double, and the Huskies have gotten improved play on the perimeter from an unlikely source: Justin Dentmon, who is averaging 12.4 points. Additionally, Isaiah Thomas has shown flashes of being the explosive scorer the Huskies hoped for.

The thing that has Husky fans hoping this year will be different than the past two is that the defense seems to be better -- 17th in adjusted defensive efficiency, fueled largely by a much improved shooting defense (No. 64 in opponents' eFG%, compared to No. 234 and 193 the past two years).

One thing to keep an eye on, though: Washington's defensive efficiency is fairly significantly correlated to opponents' turnover percentage (-.74). Will the defense be as good against Pac-10 teams that figure to take care of the ball better than some of their more overmatched opponents? Kansas and Florida posted the two highest opponents' efficiencies while posting two of the three lowest TO%.

9. Oregon (6-6)

Pomeroy Ranking: 93

Quick Take: Poor Ernie Kent. With his keister firmly on the hot seat, he sure picked a terrible time to play the toughest nonconference schedule of any Pac-10 team -- 38th nationally according to Pomeroy. The Ducks got soundly beat by the good teams on their schedule, but also lost a couple of not-so-good games to Oakland and San Diego.

It's the same old story with the Ducks. They're playing the fastest pace of anyone in the conference (73.7) and chucking up a ton of 3's, which they're still pretty good at making (37.5 percent, 61st nationally). Where the offense is struggling, though, is in getting easy baskets -- the Ducks are an appalling 269th nationally in 2-point field goal percentage after being 14th last year. Much like Washington, the defense is actually quite improved so far thanks to a high number of steals.

Tajuan Porter has proven to be mediocre as a leading man. Don't let the fact that he's leading Oregon in scoring fool you; he's posting just the team's fourth best offensive rating. Freshman Michael Dunigan has been solid, but team's might start employing a hack-a-Shaq strategy on him if he doesn't improve on that 51.1 percent from the line.

10. Oregon State (5-5)

Pomeroy Ranking: 175

Quick Take: Nobody's going to confuse the Beavers with a Pac-10 contender, but nobody's going to confuse them with last year's edition that went 0-18 in the Pac-10, either. This team is improved under new coach Craig Robinson*, especially on the offensive end. Their adjusted offensive efficiency is higher than the Cougs', thanks largely to improved play in the paint -- OSU is 10th nationally in 2-point field goal percentage.

Expect this team to get much better as the season rolls along. Robinson employs a version of the Princeton offense, which players don't exactly pick up overnight. The growth is already palpable; the Beavers soundly beat Howard University at home on Dec. 20, whom they lost to by two in their season opener just a month before. This team that quit on Jay John last year is playing hard for Robinson. It might not translate into five or six wins, but it'll translate into two or three over teams that don't come prepared to battle the Beavers.

Continue reading this post »

via cache.daylife.com

Before the season started, I wrote that Taylor Rochestie holds the key to the Cougars’ season more than any other player on this roster. I felt pretty good about the prospect, given that Rochestie’s been as steady as a rock over the past two years. And while some guys shrink in the face of that kind of challenge, if anyone seemed to have the makeup to relish the progression from complimentary player to lead point guard, it was Rochestie.

So far, it looks like we couldn’t have been more wrong.

No player more exemplifies the Cougs’ struggles on offense than Rochestie. Point guards are evaluated not just in terms of their individual contributions, but in terms of the offense’s overall effectiveness. With more than one third of the season already gone – and the entire nonconference schedule now behind us – Rochestie has failed to live up to expectations on both counts. His play has dipped in virtually every measurable way, as he has been unable to cope with the pressure of an elevated role.

This offense is easily the worst of the Tony Bennett era, and it’s not even close. Against "like" competition this year – Mississippi State, Pitt, Baylor, Gonzaga and LSU – the Cougs have posted an average offensive efficiency of just 84.4, with a high of only 90.9 against MSU. For a little bit of perspective, the WSU offense was held under 90.9 just three times in 2006-07 and twice (Gonzaga and North Carolina) last year.

Let that sink in for a second: Something that happened just five times in Tony Bennett's first 69 games has now happened five times in the last 12. If this team is to have any prayer of competing for a spot in the top half of the conference this year, it's got to start being a better offensive team against Pac-10 caliber competition.

Now, there’s clearly less talent on offense this year (or, at least, Pac-10 ready talent) with Derrick Low and Kyle Weaver gone, so certainly not all of this can be laid at Rochestie’s feet. But a good portion of it can.

A point guard’s primary responsibility is to set up his teammates. It’s not just getting the ball to them in the spots from which they can score, but it’s also getting it to them in a manner they can handle. It’s thinking teammates first and yourself second, a role Rochestie embraced over the past two years playing next to Low and Weaver.

Now? It’s Rochestie first and teammates second – with disastrous results. It wouldn’t be as big of a deal if he were scoring with any kind of efficiency (although, I’d argue it would still be a big deal if he was, as we’ll get to in a second). But he’s not. Check out the contrast in his stats against "like" competition from last year to this. (I tried formatting it in a readable way, but I just couldn't get it all to fit and still be readable. Click on each image to see a full-size view.)

So, just to recap: His shot attempts are way up, but his effective field goal percentage is way, way down, leading to his points being down; his assists are down, but his turnovers are way, way, WAY up. (On the bright side, his rebounds are up. Nice!)

You'll note that his 3-point attempts are actually down, meaning that while the missed 3-pointers are a problem, the main issue is coming from missing a lot of 2-point attempts. I think that's revealing, and we'll come back to that in a second.

For most players in a similar situation, you could chalk all of this up to simple selfishness. I’m certain that’s not the case with Rochestie. In fact, I think it’s probably the opposite: He wants so badly for this team to succeed that he’s taking the entire burden of an offense that is struggling on his own shoulders by increasing his shots with each passing game. In a senior year that is probably his final year of organized basketball, it’s admirable … but misguided.

Here’s the gigantic problem with Rochestie taking 12 shots a game: He’s the only guy in this offense with the ability to make plays for his teammates.

While we do miss the scoring punch of Low and Weaver, I’d argue we miss them most in their ability to make plays for other guys. Remember the offense two years ago? Low and Weaver had yet to emerge as consistent scoring threats, yet its effectiveness was only a shade under last year’s offense. And for 30-35 minutes a game last year, the Cougs had three guys on the floor capable of not only scoring off the dribble, but breaking down an opponent and setting up a teammate with a quality pass. Those two guys, along with Rochestie, made that offense – which was one of the best in the nation in terms of efficiency – go.  

But this year’s team lacks those playmakers and scorers. While Marcus Capers, Klay Thompson and Mike Harthun might become those kinds of guys eventually, they certainly are not there yet. And in truth, I think Rochestie actually could be a legitimate primary scoring option – seriously, does anyone think he’s really as bad of a shooter as he’s been this year? – if he had a playmaking point guard next to him. (Xavier Thames, why couldn’t you be a year older?) But he doesn’t, and isn’t going to.

So, what can be done? The solution is threefold.

First, Rochestie needs to change his mentality on the floor. The fact that he's attempting so many more 2-point shots this year means that when he's getting into the lane, he's first and foremost trying to score. And while there certainly is nothing wrong with him taking shots if he’s efficient with them, but as we’ve established, it can’t come at the expense of other guys.

There are guys who can go into the lane with the intention of scoring and adjust on the fly, but those are usually guys with the athleticism to cause breakdowns in the defense all by themselves. (Kyle Weaver, anyone?) Rochestie, who’s generously described as "crafty," is not that guy. When he drives into the lane, he needs to do it first with the purpose of getting a teammate a quality shot – as he did the last two years – and take a shot only if it presents itself as a high-percentage option.

Second, Rochestie needs to trust his teammates again. He is playing like that guy at the Rec Center (or P.E.B. back in my day) who passes the ball the first three possessions, watches teammates miss shots, then shoots the ball every time he touches the ball for the rest of the game, thinking he can do it better.

I firmly believe that all those shots Rochestie is chucking up speak volumes about just how much faith he has in his teammates at the moment, and it starts to become a self-fulfilling prophecy. With every shot that Rochestie takes, his teammates stand around more and more, either consciously or subconsciously working just a little less hard for their good shot because the ball probably isn’t coming their way. Nothing breeds confidence in other players like continually feeding them the ball. Rochestie needs to be the guy you love playing pickup ball with.

Lastly, let’s spread the blame a little. Rochestie’s teammates need to start doing some things to make his life just a little bit easier so that he doesn’t continue to feel like he has to do it all alone. About the only two guys that don’t need to change a thing are Aron Baynes and Caleb Forrest, who cannot do any more than they’re already doing.

But it’s completely unacceptable for Daven Harmeling to go an entire game without taking even one shot. I know LSU dedicated a defender to Harmeling, but there’s a mentality a shooter has to have that he’s going to get some shots no matter what, even if that means taking a bad one occasionally. Klay Thompson must be more assertive within the offense and work harder against teams that want to take him away. He needs to look for opportunities to take the ball to the rim. Nikola Koprivica needs to move more without the ball and stop blowing layups. DeAngelo Casto needs to concentrate on catching passes and dunk a ball once in a while.

Fair warning.

The Pac-10 basketball season kicks off today with a quartet of games on a funky Friday/Sunday schedule because of New Year's Day. While I'm working on a mini Pac-10 preview post for tonight, I just had to put this out there:

The people who run the Pac-10 are stupid.

Do you realize that you cannot watch No. 17 Arizona State at undefeated Stanford tonight, no matter what cable package you have? Additionally, most likely the only game you'll be able to catch is UCLA at Oregon State, which is being broadcast nationally by FSN? Boy, that should be a great freaking game.

You actually can watch USC at Oregon right now if you have Comcast Sports Net Northwest, and you can watch Arizona at Cal at 5:30 p.m. on FCS. But that's beside the point: Why does this conference make it so damn tough to watch its games? It's a joke.

You know, in a way, our discontentment with this 8-4 nonconference record speaks as loudly as anything about how far this program has come in the last four-plus years. Three years ago, we would have killed for eight wins in the nonconference slate and shrugged our shoulders with four losses against teams -- three of them currently ranked 3, 16 and 19 -- that are a combined 41-5 and rated an average of 24.25 by Ken Pomeroy.

Now? We're wringing our hands over a nonconference loss that might be the difference between making a third consecutive NCAA Tournament or being shipped off to NIT no-man's land.

The trouble with that, though, is that we are now officially way, way ahead of ourselves in terms of thinking about the NCAA Tournament. We probably were all year, but in light of Saturday's loss, it's become really, really clear that the postseason ought to be the farthest thing from all of our minds.

It's not so much that one loss should have changed our opinion so much; it's that the loss looked so strikingly similar to the other three losses, that we can no longer ignore what has become increasingly obvious: This team has some major flaws that don't look like they're getting any better.

In each of the four losses -- save for the game against Pitt, which is increasingly looking like an anomaly -- the blueprint has been the same: Play solid defense and keep the game close by grinding it out with a below-average offense, only to sabotage the whole thing with a stunning stretch of terrible basketball that the below-average offense doesn't have a prayer of overcoming.

It's the complete and total lack of growth in this offense -- and perhaps even regression -- that's got me wondering not whether we can compete for an NCAA Tournament berth, but whether we ought to be worried about a six-win Pac-10 performance.

My heart tells me that's ridiculous, but my head tells me something else entirely. Think the shots are likely to be more open in Pac-10 play than they are now, when playing teams that not only pride themselves on defense, but are familiar with our offense and personnel? It's going to be harder to play well on offense in the coming weeks, not easier.

In an ideal world, you want to have your most basic questions about your team answered as you head into Pac-10 play. In what is perhaps as shocking a development as those second-half meltdowns, Tony Bennett might have more questions now than when the season started.

Let's just hope he didn't use up all that Bennett magic in the last two years, but this team is in severe need of some answers.

We're a few days late on this one, but as my mom used to say, better late than never!

Skyline WR Gino Simone, arguably the top recruit in the state, was said to be looking around a bit after verbally committing to the Cougs back in August. But he cemented his intention to come to WSU next year at the end of last week according to CougFan.com. The Cougs also got a commit from Spokane's Travis Long, one of Wulff's coveted targets over this past recruiting year.

According to Scout.com, the Cougs' class is still ranked fifth in the Pac-10, with 12 of the 17 commits rated as three-star recruits or higher. So far, so good in keeping our commits as we head toward LOI day in February.

And if you're curious how the rest of the scholarships might work out -- there are about eight left -- here's Grippi's take:

As for football recruiting, the Cougars probably have less than a handful of scholarships available. They have 17 commits, according to the scouting services, which leaves just eight initials to hand out. Three of them will go to grayshirts, including JC transfer Josh Luapo and two freshmen linemen, Tim Hodgdon and Alex Reitnouer, all of whom will enroll next month (probably along with at least one of the 17 commits, JC tight end Peter Tuitupou).

There should be two or three current players, possibly including linebacker Myron Beck and kicker Nico Grasu, given rides. Any player given a scholarship who hasn’t been on campus for at least two years counts against this year’s initials, with Beck and Grasu fitting in that category. So my guess is there is room for about five or so more players, with the Cougars possibly offering more than that and asking the excess to grayshirt.