Remember Jon Kitna?  Big-armed QB, put up 4000+ passing yards in both 2006 AND 2007?  He injured after Week 4, went on the IR and the Lions went on to lose the next 12 games. 

This is a weeks-old article, but it has some good info.

Marinelli said he spoke to quarterback Jon Kitna a couple of weeks ago. The Lions placed Kitna on injured reserve with a back injury Oct. 14, and Kitna disagreed publicly.

Could Kitna play now if he were eligible?

"Oh, I would think so," Marinelli said.

Kitna has not been at team headquarters like some other injured players. Asked why not, Marinelli seemed to indicate it was a veteran's call.

Like everybody else in Detroit, Kitna is disgruntled.  But I hadn't realized that he publicly disagreed with his being put on IR.  That would tick anybody off.   With a new GM and a new coach coming in, it seems very likely that Kitna will be dropped (or traded, if somebody needs an experienced veteran at QB).

I think Kitna still has something left and could have a Warner-like season in the right situation (like, for example, in Arizona).  I can't wait to see where he lands.

CBS Sportsline is reporting that the New England Patriots will use their franchise tag on QB Matt Cassel.

The Patriots' plan for Cassel was first reported by the National Football Post.

"It's been talked about quite a bit (publicly)," Patriots spokesman Stacey James said Monday. "We won't be commenting on it until something happens. And if we don't use it (the tag), we probably won't comment."

David Dunn, Cassel's agent, did not return telephone calls seeking comment.

Without a franchise tag, Cassel would become an unrestricted free agent starting Feb. 27. The period in which a team can designate a franchise player is Feb. 5 to Feb. 19.

A team can put the franchise tag on one player a year. It would have to pay that player at least the minimum of the average of the five highest salaries of players at the same position, estimated at $14 million for Cassel.

From a fantasy standpoint, this would be gigante.  It would mean two things:

1) The Patriots are worried about Tom Brady being ready.  Not just worried, but worried enough that they'll pay Cassel a whopping $14 million to carry a clipboard.  If this was a timing issue (Brady will be at camp late, he might not be able to start until Week 3, etc) the Pats would likely pick up a veteran QB for that time.  This is a concern about the entire season.  If the Patriots are worried, you should be worried.  Tom Brady could be worth a first round fantasy pick or be a complete bust next season, and you might not know the answer until after the season starts. 

2) Matt Cassel might be worthless next season.  You know what I just said about Brady and first round pick and bust?  The same thing applies to Matt Cassel.  If he starts for the Pats, he's a great fantasy QB.  If he sits on the bench, he's worthless.  If he had signed with the Vikings or the Lions, at least you could analyze the situation and determine his worth.  If he's franchised, you have to analyze the status of Tom Brady's knee.  Good luck with that.  Change your browser bookmark from Rotonews to WebMD.

Correction, three things!

3) Hey, I just thought of this:  What if Brady comes back healthy in Week 6, and Cassel has led the team to a 5-0 record?  Do the Pats really bench Cassel?  "Just take a seat Tom, the kid is doing fine".   What if Cassel does to Brady what Brady did to Drew Bledsoe?  Yeah, it would be very karmic, but damn, then what?  All the analysis says Brady will be back in Week 6, you draft him in Round 5 based on that, he comes back on schedule and then sits?  Wow, what a fantasy disaster that could be.

"I can't go through this again," James told ESPN. "I didn't come here to block. I'm not an offensive lineman."

James, who re-emerged as the Cardinals' feature back in the regular-season finale after weeks of pass blocking and barely touching the football, told reporters Thursday that his last game of the season will probably be his last in Arizona -- and that's OK.

"I think the feeling is mutual," he said, laughing. "It's not something I'm going to contest."

The latest word out of New York is that Brett Favre is considering whether or not to return to the Jets, and that the Jets absolutely want him back.

Well, maybe ALL the Jets.

Running back Thomas Jones publicly tore into Favre over the holiday, essentially saying he should have been benched for Kellen Clemons. 

"If somebody is not playing well, they need to come out of the game," Jones told Hot 97 FM. "You're jeopardizing the whole team because you're having a bad day. To me, that's not fair to everybody else. You're not the only one. So when you get to the wire and somebody is just giving the game up, I mean, it's just not [fair]."

Favre averaged 202 passing yards per game in the final five games, with a TOTAL of 2 TDs and 9 INTs over that stretch.

Meanwhile, the guy they booted out of town to make way for His Majesty Brett Favre went on to lead the Dolphins to a division title and won Comeback Player of the Year. 

Nice job Jets.

I don't think that Favre will be back with the Jets next year, but if he is it has to be a considered a factor that will reduce the fantasy value of all Jets.  He's destined for Canton, but he's not getting it done right now.

Three more free agent quarterbacks to keep your eyes on this season:

David Garrard, Jax - Jacksonville management gushed about Garrard last year calling him "the heart of the team".  Of course, that was when they were winning so now maybe he's the kidney or spleen of the team. The Jaguars don't have any money spend and they don't have any receivers anyway, so they'll probably re-sign him for another season.  Unless/until Head Coach Jack Del Rio gets fired.  Prediction: He stays, fantasy value improves.
 
Kurt Warner, Arz - Warner has publically said that he's thinking about retirement, but it has to be fun throwing the ball to Boldin and Fitzgerald all day long.  It doesn't look like St. Louis, Seattle or San Francisco are going to be getting much better any time soon, so he can look forward to what should be another successful year in 2009.  It's not like the Cards have anybody else to play QB...oh right they do, that Matt Leinart guy.  Huh.  Prediction: He stays, fantasy value is the same.
 
Michael Vick, FA -- Hey, don't laugh, he gets out of prison in July.  Of course Commissioner Goodell could suspend him for who knows how long as soon as he steps out of the prison gate, but considering the guy has been in jail it might seem like overkill to slap a suspension on him again.  I can't imagine any team would just hand him the starting job (ok, maybe Detroit), but I can think of several teams that could use a veteran backup and would be willing to help "rehabilitate" him.  One injury to Joe Flacco later and it's "Hello Fantasy Starter'!  Think about it, that's all I'm saying.  Prediction: He signs, little to no fantasy value.

Nothing can change the fantasy landscape like free agency, which is one giant reason why doing 2009 fantasy mock drafts now is fun but not all that helpful.  How can you decide how to value guys like Randy Moss, Wes Welker and Matt Cassel when their value depends heavily on where Matt Cassel ends up?  Will these guys stay with their team or take the money and run?  And what does that decision do to their fantasy value?  Here are a few of the free agent QBs that have to make that decision.   
 
Matt Cassel, NE -- Cassel was a solid every-week quarterback, both in fantasy football and in "real life" as he led the Patriots to an 11-5 record after Brady was injured.   There's not much you can argue about when the guy put up 3,693 passing yards (including two 400+ yd games), 21 TDs and 11 INT.   He is going to cash in big time somewhere but I don't think it will be in New England.  The Patriots probably want to keep him -- especially since Tom Brady is spending more time snuggling with supermodels and less time healing -- but I doubt they can afford it.   Prediction: He leaves, fantasy value drops
 
Kerry Collins, Ten -- OK, the Vince Young era re-starts next season, right?  Right?  Uh, maybe not.  Collins hasn't been a great fantasy QB (2,681 pass yds, 12 TD, 7 INT) but he's done everything he had to do in leading the Titans to a 13-3 regular season record.  Hell, he might end up with a Super Bowl ring before the season is over.  That would probably be the best outcome as he's likely to retire if that happens.  If Collins doesn't retire, can the Titans really keep sign him, start him, and keep VY on the bench?  A Super Bowl appearance says the answers are yes, yes and yes.  Prediction: He stays, fantasy value rises.
 
Jeff Garcia, TB - I'm sure they have different leadership qualities, but to fantasy football owners Garcia (2713 pass yds, 12 TD, 6 INT) is the same QB as Collins.  A late season collapse (2 TD and 3 INT in the final two games, both losses) doomed the Bucs' playoff chances but Coach Gruden says they want him back.  Eh, go figure.  I have problems understanding this team. Prediction: He stays, fantasy value is the same.

The season is over and after 17 long weeks of the best football on earth, the finalists for this year's NFL Championship have been determined!

As you all know, the teams playing in the Super Bowl are determined by the National Football League Championship Series (NFLCS), widely praised by the NFL as the best way to decide the league champion.  The NFLCS uses several factors -- win-loss record, two polls and three computer indexes -- to determine the ten best teams in the NFL.  The top two teams proceed directly to the Super Bowl, while the other eight play in the four NFLCS Bowl Games.   Only division winners are eligible for the NFLCS, along with second place teams with 10 or more wins and Notre Dame.

Now, there's nothing more exciting than learning who will be playing for the Lombardi Trophy, so let's get started with the NFLCS bowls and work our way up to the Super Bowl!

Iron Bowl, Cleveland, Ohio
Pittsburgh Steelers vs Miami Dolphins

Even though the Steelers are hated in Cleveland, their fans "travel well" so the Iron Bowl couldn't help but invite them.  They get a great matchup between two former MAC quarterbacks in Roethlisberger and Pennington.  Let's hope there's some classic Cleveland weather for a real old-style game!


Under Armour Capitol Bowl, Washington DC
Baltimore Ravens vs Minnesota Vikings

Another homer pick was announced by the Capitol Bowl, who will see a huge crowd of local Ravens fans.  The uninspiring Vikings provide the opposition, as the Bowl Committee didn't want to have a re-match featuring the Patriots.  That wouldn't sell tickets!


Lone Star Bowl, Dallas, Texas
Arizona Cardinals vs San Diego Chargers

Gun slinging Kurt Warner and the Cardinals head down to Texas to take on the Chargers, who barely qualified for the NFLCS with a Week 17 win against Denver.  NFLCS-eligible Atlanta and Indianapolis are pretty angry that they get the shaft while the 9-7 Chargers play for the big money.



EA Sports Madden 2009 Sunset Bowl, Los Angeles, California
New York Giants vs  New England Patriots

Wow, what a surprise this is!  The defending Super Bowl champion Giants have a 12-4 record and have been playing as well as any team in the league.  They don't make the cut for the Super Bowl though as they finish with only the third-best NFLCS rating. We'll get into the details of how that happened coming up but it's likely their last-second loss against the Vikings coupled with that last-second Panthers win swayed more than a few poll voters!  

Not only aren't the boys in blue playing for the title, but they have to face the 11-5 Patriots led by surprise QB Matt Cassel.  It's a do-over of last year's amazing Super Bowl  XLII and a great matchup for the Sunset Bowl.  It's a chance for two great teams to finish the season on a high note and who couldn't be happy about that?


Super Bowl XLIII, Tampa, Florida
Tennessee Titans vs Carolina Panthers

The Titans sport the best record in the league at 13-3, so there's no surprise that they've been selected for the Big Game -- even with their miserable performance against the Colts on Sunday. The big story is the Carolina Panthers. They sport a great 12-4 record (just like the Giants) but  everybody is talking about how the Giants BEAT the Panthers just a few weeks ago.  Doesn't that make it obvious that the Giants are better than the Carolina?  Not according to the NFLCS!  Take a look at how the scores for the Panthers and Giants worked out:

Could it be much closer?  And hey, what's up with Peter King's rating on the Giants?  Still upset about the Patriots losing out on 19-0, huh Peter?  Those grumpy New Yorkers may complain, but that's the way it goes in the NFL.  If you don't like the NFLCS, too bad!

So let's get ready for the Titans and Panthers for the NFL Championship in Super Bowl XLIII.  We'll have a football champion determined the way they should be: on the field!

I hope everybody had / is having a great holiday break.  I know I did, although I was reminded of a few important points during my time off:

1)      My mom is still an incredible cook.

1a)    I still don’t know why I didn’t die of a massive coronary attack by age 12.  Wow, I seriously need a salad.

2)      My family is kind of crazy (in a good way).

3)      My wife’s family is kind of crazy (in a good way).

 
On top of that, here are five fantasy football related thoughts to ponder during the last week of the NFL season:

1)      If the Vikings miss the playoffs – again – is the Tarvaris Jackson era over in Minnesota?  Adrian Peterson has a finite number of carries on his body, and the Vikings are wasting them.   My answer: Yes.

2)      If the Eagles don’t upset the Cowboys, is Donovan McNabb finished in Philly?  There are plenty of teams (Chicago? Minnesota?) who could throw a lot of money at him.  My answer: No.

3)      Last season the Patriots, Cowboys and Packers won a combined 42 games.  It’s possible that all three teams will miss the playoffs this year.  While you’re at it, add in the Jags (11 wins), Chargers (11 wins), Browns (10 wins) and Seahawks (10 wins) all of whom might also miss the playoffs.  My answer: Damn.

4)      Who starts at QB  in Arizona next season, Warner or Leinart?  If you’re the Cardinals, you need to figure that out pretty soon, don’t you?  If you're planning to keep Boldin or Fitzgerland, you need to know too.  My answer: Warner.

5)      The AFC is stocked with quarterbacks that are potential 2009 breakout candidates.  Joe Flacco, Tyler Thigpen, Trent Edwards, and Brady Quinn all have the chance to go crazy next year, but each and every one of them could also suck big time. That’s not even including Matt Cassel’s new home and <insert new Raiders QB here>.  QBs will be a tough position to draft next season.  My answer: Yes on Thigpen and Edwards, No on Flacco, Quinn, Cassel and New Raider.