MHR University Special Report

How the change at Head Coach impacts the Broncos on the field

The news has sent shock waves through not just the Broncos fan base, but sports news outlets in general.  Mike Shanahan, one of the most winning and safest coaches was fired.  From his days as a Superbowl "Mastermind" and playoff contender to his class act at his final news conference at Dove Valley, Mike Shanahan has earned the respect and best wishes of all of us at Milehighreport.com.

Most of the excellent staff and members of MHR will focus on memories of Mike, and speculation about what the future holds.  I will try to focus on what I know best: Xs and Os.  I know what happens when change comes at head coach (though not at the pro level), but I also have an inkling of how this impacts the team from a systemic vantage.

Denver is in for a  heck of a ride.  Some things may (surprisingly) improve rather quickly, while some things may go south for a bit.  Now is not the time to panic for Denver's future, nor is it the time for celebration.  Denver is still in the midst of a rebuilding program, and the types of moves Denver makes in the next two or so years will depend heavily on the new coach.

Read on...

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IN DENVER BRONCO PRE-GAME ANALYSIS

MILEHIGHREPORT.COM 

"There is one certain way," replied the Prince [William of Orange] "by which I can be sure never to see my country's ruin, -- I will die in the last ditch."

The young and battered Denver Broncos go into Qualcomm Stadium as underdogs.  They have led the division after every game this year and beat the Chargers earlier this year, but nobody will give Denver any chance of winning this game.  Does Denver have a chance of winning this game?  Is there any way our beloved team avoids ruin?

Join me.  We will break down the game together, and then on Sunday night each of us can find his or her comfortable couch to watch the game.  As one, we will all fight the good fight, and perhaps avoid having to die in the last ditch.

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First, I agree with the sentiments expressed by Guru.  I am a Broncos fan through and through, and refuse to be a bandwagon fan that is "finished" when this team blows a game.  We improved over last year, have a strong, core group of youth, and remain on the precipice of the playoffs.  Reading many of the stories in the pre-season, most of us predicted a record close to 10-6 and a borderline shot at the playoffs.

And as Guru points out, the winner of this next game will clearly deserve the playoff spot, and the loser clearly won't.

Briefly (because dwelling on negatives get us nowhere), I'm going to lay out the problems I saw in play calling.

Both TedBartlett and I have written stories (here and here) that spelled out what we thought needed to be done to win the Bills game.  In the 1st quarter, Denver took our advice.  They ran the ball, and they ran it to the edges where they could take advantage of slower DEs and OLBs.  Pope and even Royal had incredible gains.  At the end of the first quarter, Denver had scored twice, and the Bills were in negative yardage in both running and passing.  Denver then abandoned the run for most of the rest of the game, allowing the Cover Two of the Bills to focus on the pass.  That's when things started going down the hill.

Next, Denver's aggressive play calling at the end of the half reminded me of the last time Denver made a foolish decision near the end of the half.  You'll recall Denver not running out the clock, and handing the ball to the other team in the very recent past.  This week, Denver expected their FG kicker to make a terribly long FG kick right at the end of the half.  Worse, Denver made this decision with a lead!  Denver gave up horrific field position, which should have almost promised the Bills a FG.  The Bills took advantage, and scored a TD.

Note how well the TEs played.  Again, several of the great members of the MHR Think Tank advocated using the TEs in the seams against a Cover Two that doesn't resemble a Tampa 2 very much.  Graham and Scheff had a field day.  Getting desperate towards the end of the game, Cutler gave up on dinking short passes to the seams (which picked up big yards) and relied on the WRs, who were the targets of the Cover Two.  I wasn't in touch with Styg during the game, but I felt as if we were telepathicaly on the same wavelength - "Here comes the interception".

One odd thing to consider: Considering how well we did in the first few drives, is it likely that Shanahan scripted the first several plays (which worked), while the pass happy plays afterward (which didn't work) were the product of our offensive coordinator?  No intrigue here, I think we know the answer.  Is anyone interested in starting a movement to get Shanahan to go back to playcalling?

My advice?  Get your frustrations out here.  Get them behind you.  The team needs us as they move ahead, and the SD game will be a beauty.  I feel neither team has a shot at a deep playoff run, so this game is our Super Bowl.  It will be in prime time, and against a team that seems to me to be fighting the Raiders for the new title of "worthy arch enemy".

I for one have no time for frustrations of my own.  I am grateful for this Christmas season, my family, my MHR family, and the Broncos (win or lose).  I will spend this week serving my community in law enforcement, serving my family, and serving each of you at MHR.  I plan to put the Bills game to rest, and to focus on what matters as a football fan...

Beating SD.  And doing it with overwhelming force.

According to the Associated Press, WR Ashlie Lelie (another Denver cast off) has gone on IR in Oakland.

Funny how the Raider's organization hates Denver, but respects Denver enough to take our rejects.  More funny, is how this site warns Oakland of the risks of taking injury prone players and bad characters (because we care), and Oakland never listens and has to pay the price time and again.  Funnier still, this isn't a big news item.  Why?  The Rrrrrrrraiders are so deep in the basement at this point, no news out of the team has any relevance.

And nothing hurts the Raiders more than being irrelevant.

From the Associated Press:

DENVER (AP)—The man accused of killing Denver Broncos cornerback Darrent Williams will enter a plea in February after Friday’s hearing was postponed.

Willie D. Clark faces 39 counts, including first-degree murder. His plea hearing was postponed until Feb. 20 because his attorneys wanted more time to review evidence.

Williams was shot after leaving a Denver nightclub on New Year’s Day 2007. The indictment says Williams and Clark were at the club with separate groups that exchanged taunts before Williams and his friends left in a rented limousine.

A witness told investigators that Clark was driving an SUV when he caught up with Williams’ limo and fired into it.

The 25-year-old Clark also was indicted last month in an unrelated shooting death.

Clark is facing two seperate murder charges, and recently caught charges for making a weapon in the jail he is being held in.  (I believe these represent 3 different cases).  I am not an attorney, but I suspect the tactic is to buy time for someone who is knee deep in a case(s) he likely can't win. 

In my experience in my current line of work, I imagine Clark's gang affilliation is working against him.  Because he is associated with a number of criminal types, there are a lot of folks with information and big mouths.  While their word isn't worth much, there is going to be more information to tie together for the investigators and, by implication, the prosecution.

I think this is a good sign for those of us that believe that Clark is likely responsible for Darrent's murder.

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IN DENVER BRONCO PRE-GAME ANALYSIS

MILEHIGHREPORT.COM 

For Everything Bills Related, Check Out Buffalo Rumblings

This is it!  Denver would have had a hard time clinching against Carolina last week, but this week Denver has a game that they should win.

If Denver wins, Denver makes the playoffs.  If not, all the cards fall into one game, and that's Denver at SD.  While Denver is better than SD this year, it can be hard to win on the road, and hard to beat a rival division team.  I'm looking at this game as the game where Denver needs to take the big gamble and throw in players that may not yet be 100%.  With a win, we have a better chance this week and can use next week to rest key players.

Despite our problems with injuries and some weird playcalling, Denver is poised to make a playoff appearance this year.  I don't think we will do well once we get in (er, if), but playing in a big stakes game will go far in preparing our young players for the future.

There's just one catch...

The Bills aren't going to roll over and die for our benefit.

When I coached, I was blessed to be with a winning program.  My biggest concern for preparing players was getting them to take the competition seriously.  My motto was "Hard Work beats Talent, when Talent doesn't work hard".  If Denver doesn't play hard, the Bills will win this game.  This game will determine how badly Denver wants the post season.

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A very good write up in The Sporting News by Albert Breer makes the case for several players who where snubbed for the Pro Bowl.  Clady's case is air tight.

I like many of the points the author makes for many of the players.  One thing I really like is his acknowledgment that stats don't paint the entire picture.  Sometimes the play of a key position (like Wilfork - NT Pats; Robbins - DT NYGs; Dansby - OLB Cards) can make other players look good around them, while not being flashy themselves.

I get the case for Rivers, but see a case against him too.  Character has knocked a lot of so-called "greats" off the list this year, and Rivers acts like a spoiled child.

Still, as I've pointed out elsewhere, I'm not going to pout about Clady.

• Rookies don't often get the nod.
• He will be going to the Pro Bowl for years to come anyway.
• Cutler and Marshall deserve our support for being named, and we shouldn't ignore them out of spite for Clady's lack of recognition.

Did the Pro Bowl voters take name recognition over talent?  Sure.  (Favre and six other Jets is so ridiculous that it SCREAMS east coast bias).  Clady knows how good he is, and more importantly, the Broncos management understands how good he is.  That's really what matters.  Clady will be very rich, very respected by his peers, and have job security for years to come.  And yes, he'll be in the Pro Bowl many times before he retires.

Anyway, take a read at the linked article.  It's got some sound thinking behind it, and deserves a look.

I've waited a couple of days to give my thoughts on the Carolina game, and where we stand as a team at this juncture.  This isn't going to be a long post, but I hope it sparks some quality discussion.  This is much less of a "hoosierteacher" post and much more of a request for your thoughts.

First, I didn't expect Denver to win this game, and they didn't.  In my mind, the Panthers have a very good shot at playing for the NFC Championship, and perhaps the SB.  It isn't a knock on Denver (or me as a fan) to believe they are not yet a deep playoff caliber team.  I was disappointed to lose, but not depressed.  If we lose to the Bills, I will not be a happy camper.

Second, I don't like the 4-4 at the pro-level.  I ran it at the HS level (where the run is much more a part of the game) at times, but as I wrote last week, a 4-4 can stop the run, but it will cost you in the passing game.  A lot of folks advocated Woodyard at SS.  While he may have been called a SS, he actually played as more of a fourth LB.  Either way, kudos to him and the defense for stopping the run (until, as I predicted, CAR got one of those giant runs near the end of the game).  But "boos" all around to not having a deep second safety, particularly with Champ out of the game.

Without Champ Bailey to cover Smith, and without the "second safety" (Woodyard was playing as more of a LB than safety, and we played more of a 4-4 than a 46 Defense), we should have known that Steve Smith would gash this team.  With Champ in the game, we might (might) have gotten away with it.  In my Chalk Talk last week, I went so far as to write that we might have to keep a safety in the box to stop the run.  But without Champ, that idea was suicide.

Third (and I'm 100% with Guru on this one), I don't understand the bone headed call that started the momentum shift away from our team.  At the end of the first half, Denver decides to try a drive instead of running out the clock.  I think many of us saw a turnover in the making.  Before that point, Denver was hanging with Carolina, and the game was still a balanced proposition.

Fourth, the Kuper injury.  I strongly believe we can plug in another guard (K-lich) and do fine.  The problem we may run into is lack of coordination in some zone blocks.  This wouldn't bother me so much, except that we don't have the depth and experience at RB to compensate.  All in all, I don't think we will see too much drop off in OL performance.

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I get quite a bit of reader mail from MHR members, members from around SBN's football sites, and sometimes someone who has linked to us from an outside source (such as Sports Illustrated).  I recently received this question, and since it is topical to the current Denver defense, thought I would post it instead of just sending back a reply in the e-mail.

Any chance that you could do an article/ post at MHR on safety play. I feel like I am getting more knowledgable all the time, but I am confused as to the scheme the Broncos are using, and how the way we are using our safeties is detrimentally effecting the strengths of players like Champ and Dre.
 
I would be stoked to know this, and also if Barrett has the skill set that would allow us to go back and play to Dre and Champ's strengths.

Ben Boyd

You've got it Ben!  Let's take a look at how use of safeties affect corners in a defense.

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IN DENVER BRONCO PRE-GAME ANALYSIS

MILEHIGHREPORT.COM 

For Everything Panthers Related, Check Out CatScratchReader

Just how good is Denver?  Earlier in the season, I wrote that Denver had a shot at anywhere from fourth to second seed in the AFC playoffs.  The bad news is that the loss against Oakland wrecked any reasonable chance of second seed.  The good news is that wins over the Jets and the Chiefs have catapulted Denver to the third seed.

Denver ranks 11th in the League, which is amazing considering the sheer number of injuries the team has faced (6th string RB anyone?).  When factoring in the playoff requirements, Denver ranks third in the AFC, behind only TENN and PITT.  If the playoffs were today, Denver would have a home game against Baltimore.

Is 8-5 anything to be ashamed of?  Some in the media may try to spin it this way.  But a look at other (if held today) playoff teams reveals the Jets, Cowboys, Vikings, and Cards all have the same 8-5 record.  Baltimore, Indy, and TB each have just one more game at 9-4, and we've beaten TB.

Some may be concerned about the loss of Hillis.  I think Hillis is the clear answer at RB for next year.  I love his power running style, his ability to block, his ability to catch out of the backfield, and of course, his Mile High salute.  But as MHR Chief Editor Guru points out, this team was winning without Hillis, and can keep winning behind what is becoming a legendary OL.

Facing the Panthers this week in Carolina, our young, playoff caliber team will face the toughest challenge of the year.  The Panthers are one of four Superbowl Caliber teams, and this game will be an early indication of how deep the Broncos might deserve to go in the playoffs.

(Note: Panthers owner Jerry Richardson, the first former NFL player since George Halas to become a team owner, is in need of a heart transplant and has been placed on a donor waiting list.  All of us at MHR wish Mr. Richardson the very best, and hope a donation match can be made soon)

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