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steeler1275

Jun 10, 2008 Nov 23, 2008 2 43

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Steelers defensive passing YPA under Tomlin

(For this post, note that statistics are from pro-football-reference.com. I will be talking about adjusted passing YPA. The adjusted just means that it takes sacks into account. For example, let's say that Peyton Manning goes 14-24 for 156 this week and gets sacked once for 6 yards. Then his YPA would be 150/25 = 6. 150 is net yards passing (156-6) and 25 attempts includes the time when he dropped back to pass but was sacked.)

When Mike Tomlin was hired as the the new Steelers head coach, like many fans I looked to see what his background was. While he was a db coach with TB, the secondary played pretty well and they definitely shined in the 02 Super Bowl. But you never know what the exact impact of an assistant coach is, so it's hard to know how much of that success was due to Tomlin. And as well as the TB pass defense played in the Super Bowl, it's still just one game and some thought that they had an advantage since Gruden was well aware of Oakland's and Gannon's tendencies.

Once Tomlin moved on to Minnesota, it wasn't Minny's pass defense that improved, but rather their run defense. In 2005 (the year before Tomlin), Minny allowed 5.9 passing YPA and 4.0 rushing YPA. In 2006 (with Tomlin as defensive coordinator), Minny's allowed 6.1 passing YPA but only a miniscule 2.8 rushing YPA. But that's only one year, so who knows what would have happened if Tomlin had stayed.

Last year, Tomlin's first year as head coach with the Steelers, I noticed that the Steelers allowed very few yards per passing attempt.  In fact, they allowed only 4.9 YPA through the air while allowing 4.0 on the ground. (Unfortunately, I don't have the rushing YPA before Aaron Smith got hurt.)

To put that 4.9 into perspective, consider that it matched the best defensive passing YPA the Steelers ever managed under Cowher, whose teams posted a 4.9 in 1994 and (somewhat surprisingly to me) in 1996.

This year, however, the Steelers have taken it to another level. They are allowing a paltry 4.2 passing YPA. That is easily the best mark since the glory days of the 70s. Meanwhile, the team is allowing only 2.9 on the ground.  (That 2.9 would actually be better than any Steeler defense under Cowher or Noll.) Those numbers are incredible halfway through this season. It's even more impressive when you consider that the team has had to overcome multiple injuries on the defensive side of the ball, although none have been season ending (knock on wood) thus far and the 3 most important players on defense (Harrison, Woodley and Polamalu) have remained relatively healthy. It's also worth noting that the offense hasn't exactly helped the defense that much either, often putting the Steelers defense in many short field situations.

If the Steelers defense can maintain this pace, we may be seeing the best Steeler defense since the 1970s.*

As an aside, to appreciate how good those 70s Steeler defenses consistently were, consider that from 1972 through 1979 (8 years), the Steelers allowed a defensive YPA of 4.9 or less 7 times. In 1974, they posted a measly  3.7.

* I obviously put a great deal of stock into defensive YPA, especially passing YPA. But there are other stats that I value as well, mostly turnovers and points allowed. I readily admit that I can't really say that this Steeler defense would be the best since the 70s withouth looking at these categories. For example, this defense is on pace to allow 232 points, which compares favorably to the 234 that the 94 defense allowed. However, this year's team is only on pace to force 24 turnovers, while the 94 edition forced 31.

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Random Thoughts about the game and current state of the Steelers

Here are a few of my thoughts in no particular order. They may not be insightful but I do think that that most of my thoughts are reasonable, ie not overly reactionary to the Giants loss.

1. This team needs to be somewhat lucky from an injury standpoint from this point forward. We should get some injured guys back in the coming weeks but the team cannot really withstand any more critical injuries, especially if the injury is a season ender.

2. The defense is championship caliber. I'm not saying that it's the greatest defense of all time, but it can do almost everything relatively well. They play the run, they rush the passer, they don't give up too many big plays in the passing game, they play good red zone defense. The only minor quibble I have is that they don't intercept the ball enough.

3. Tomlin deserves some credit for the play of the defense. Many fans wax poetic about Lebeau, but the defense has steadily improved over Tomlin's short tenure. Lebeeau obviously deserves credit, but I believe Tomlin has added to that, and that is Tomlin's background as an assistant coach.

4. On the other hand, I don't blame Tomlin for the struggles of the offense. Tomlin doesn't have an offensive background, so that's not his area of expertise. However, he is responsible for hiring the assistant coaches to implement his vision of offense. I'll be interested to see what he does with Arians and Zierlein this offseason.

5. Tomlin is learning from past mistakes. Last year, I thought Tomlin made some errors in judgement when he played too conservative at times. The most glaring example that fans remember is when he had Ben run wide on 3rd and 6 late in the playoff game last year vs the Jags. At that time, I was really galled because he had made the same mistake against Cleveland at Heinz field late last season. In that game, the Steelers ran up the middle, ran up the middle and then called a qb draw on three successive plays at the end of the game. But since Cleveland missed a late fg attempt to tie the game, many fans might not remember that. However, this year Tomlin has not made those mistakes. At Cleveland, Ben was allowed to rollout on 2nd down late in the game and complete a pass to Miller for a critical first down that helped kill the clock. At Jax, they clearly played for a td at the end of the game instead of settling for a fg attempt. (I do realize that Reed was hurt and that maybe played a part in the strategy.) Yesterday, the Steelers went for it against the Giants on 4th down from the 34 yard line. Although they didn't convert, I believe it was the right call. A score at that juncture may have iced the game.

6. I think Tomlin made the right call in inactivating Holmes yesterday. Although some fans may say that benching Holmes cost us a chance to win yesterday, I believe that it's good in the long run. Teammates need to be able to count on each other, trust each other, and play for each other. That type of cohesiveness can make a tangible difference. When Aaron Smith shows up to play despite what he is going through, it lifts and inspires the team. If Holmes can learn and mature from this incident, then it can bode well both for his career and for the Steelers down the line. Now maybe Holmes doesn't mature from this, but if Tomlin didn't bench him, that would likely only enable similar future behavior.

7. Ward may be slipping skills wise. I can't say for sure because the tv does not show what is transpiring downfield all the time, but I wonder if Ward is able to get consistent separation at this stage of his career. He still has value as a player, but I think he is more of a complementary wr than a top wr now. On a possibly reIated note, Ward tends to drop passes a bit too often now. Before I gave him the benefit of the doubt, but now I think it is a sign of age. I didn't believe that Ward's success several years ago was due to having Plex on the other side, but I do think that Ward needs Holmes on the other side now to draw attention away from him.

8. Can Nate Washington run any intermediate routes well? He is a decent deep threat, but I rarely see him getting open on intermediate routes. Just asking? While I appreciate Nate as a #3, I don't think he is a viable #2 wr.

9. Much is made of Ben holding on to the ball to make a play. But sometimes the replay shows that nobody is open downfield. This is not always the case, but it helps me understand why he holds on to the ball at times.

10. Limas Sweed has a ways to go. The sample size is small, but he needs to get stronger, improve technique and improve his awareness. Now many wr need a year or two before they really make their mark in the NFL. Hopefully Sweed will improve, because this team will need him to step up with Ward declining and Washington set to approach FA.

11. The team needs a downhill runner who can grind out some tough yards. FWP is a good rb and Moore has been a godsend, but does anyone feel relatively confident handing the ball to either of them on 3rd and 2 or less? Maybe Mendenhall can be that guy next year. Even if you don't hand it off on every short yardage play, it helps open up the passing game in those situations.

12. Related to the above two points, Mendenhall and Sweed are going to be important to the team starting next year. They may be as important to our success next year as Timmons and Woodley have been this year.

13. The offensive line is below average, possibly one of the worst in the league. I appreciate Blitzbugh's perspective after the recent loss that the oline isn't as bad as perceived. I also realize that Ben's penchant for holding on to the ball and the wr not getting open contribute to the problem. But to think that the oline is average or better is looking through black and gold colored glasses if you ask me. They give Ben a decent amount of time against teams that are poor at rushing the passer, like Jax and Cincy. But against teams that can generate a pass rush, we are inept at times, especially when they know they don't have to respect the threat of the run, like when we were down 7 yesterday at the end of the game. Maybe it's talent, maybe it's coaching, but it needs to be rectified. Anyway, we fans often think that a team needs to be built around the qb. In our case, if Ben likes to hold on to the ball, then it behooves the Steelers to put an above average pass blocking unit around him.

14. Stapleton has now played for 3.5 games. While he has made some mistakes, I actually think he is already our best pass blocking lineman.

15. With the injuries at rb, the off line issues, Ward aging and Holmes toking, our offense is starting to look like the pre Terrell Davis Elway led Broncos. Those teams had very little talent around Elway and just hoped for him to make a play. That worked in the weak AFC at the time but not against the then superior NFC teams in the Super Bowl. Ben obvioulsy has a better defense but the offense seems to rely on Ben way too much to make plays. And of course, that isn't working too often against the better defenses in the league.

16. The ST coverage units have slipped over the past two games. I'm not sure why. Maybe the personnel has changed and I'm not aware of it. I know Woods has missed the past few games. Does anyone know of other personnel changes?

17. I don't think that bad snap cost us the game yesterday. Even if we get the punt off yesterday, the Giants still would have had good field position. A td there would have put them up 5 instead of 7.

18. And while the defense played great yesterday, we were a bit lucky to limit them in the redzone as much as we did. If these teams were to meet in the Super Bowl, you can't expect those type of defensive results. Therefore, the offense would have to show much more than they did yesterday in order to pull out a W in a rematch.

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