Steeler's SB team most improbable ever

For all those statistical geeks.

I thought this was interesting.

"Bonus fun fact I uncovered while running these numbers: according to the formula given at the top of this post, this season's Steeler team is the most improbable Super Bowl team in history. Their estimated win probabilities were .441, .181, and .253, which means that their probability of winning all three (making all the usual incorrect assumptions about independence) was about .02, which is the lowest figure of any team to ever make a Super Bowl. Now that's not too surprising, since they played three games and most Super Bowl teams only play two. But if you throw out the Cincinnati game, their probability would be .045, which would still be the lowest in history.

Most Improbable Super Bowl Teams

Team    Probability
pit 2005    2.0
nwe 1985    5.1
dal 1975    5.3
car 2003    7.6
ram 1979    8.6
bal 2000    9.9
oak 1980   10.9
ten 1999   11.2
sfo 1988   11.5
den 1997   12.3
buf 1992   12.8"

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