I've moved SIC's latest diary to the main page I thought it was so cool:
By steelerinchicago [Edit User]
Posted on Thu Aug 03, 2006 at 02:58:44 PM EST
For all those statistical geeks.
http://www.pro-football-reference.com/blog/wordpress/?p=80
I thought this was interesting.
"Bonus fun fact I uncovered while running these numbers: according to the formula given at the top of this post, this season's Steeler team is the most improbable Super Bowl team in history. Their estimated win probabilities were .441, .181, and .253, which means that their probability of winning all three (making all the usual incorrect assumptions about independence) was about .02, which is the lowest figure of any team to ever make a Super Bowl. Now that's not too surprising, since they played three games and most Super Bowl teams only play two. But if you throw out the Cincinnati game, their probability would be .045, which would still be the lowest in history.
Most Improbable Super Bowl Teams
Team Probability
pit 2005 2.0
nwe 1985 5.1
dal 1975 5.3
car 2003 7.6
ram 1979 8.6
bal 2000 9.9
oak 1980 10.9
ten 1999 11.2
sfo 1988 11.5
den 1997 12.3
buf 1992 12.8"
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My question is: did anybody else truly think we were the biggest longshot in NFL history to win the SB? We were on such a roll heading into the playoffs that I really truly believed we were going to get it done. Granted, I was nervous before the Colts game (how could I not have been after our dismal showing against them earlier in the year), but those fears were quickly calmed by our impressive start in the first quarter. After that quarter, it sure looked like we were a team of destiny. Thoughts?
Also, SIC has some excellent content of his own at his blog. Check it out. There's some great Steelers content in there.
[editor's note, by Blitzburgh]My original link was to a specific post of his on fantasy football. The link above is to the main page of SIC's blog, where more relevant Steelers content can be found. My apologies to him. Thanks again to SIC for the nice find.