FanPost

Argument: 2005 as a Cause for Optimism in 2015

On the eve of the Steelers’ season opener in New England, Steeler Nation appears tense. Expectations are mixed, but after an abysmal preseason nearly everyone is pessimistic about the defense – the secondary in particular. New DC Keith Butler, when asked about his squad, has largely been calm and easy-going; projecting an air of "we’ll have to see on the field." But hidden under that straw hat, Butler has also given a couple of cryptic hints that subtle changes are afoot this year to "make the quarterback uncomfortable." No one’s talking about what those changes will be, and the defense has looked dreadful this summer, so it’s easy to dismiss those comments. And yet…

I should pause for a moment and confess two things: 1) I’m definitely a fan looking for reasons to be optimistic this week; and 2) despite the argument below, logic is still telling me it’ll be a rough road Thursday night. However, something about Butler’s calm, and about the unseen scheming he’s alluded to, keeps reminding me of the 2005 preseason.

Maybe a quick recap is in order.

In 2004, the Steelers stunned the NFL world by going 15-1 with a rookie quarterback, and an old-school foundation – power running with aging locomotives Jerome Bettis and Duce Staley, and ageless defensive coordinator Dick Lebeau, who had just returned after flaming out as a head coach. How good were they? At midseason, in consecutive weeks, they pounded the eventual Super Bowl participants (New England and Philadelphia, both previously undefeated) by a combined 61-23. The defense was the league’s best, and the offense complimented it perfectly – controlling the clock and wearing down opponents so the fire-blitz D could rest up and hit the field at full throttle.

That's important to notice: while the 2004 defense was outstanding, and the offense was middling (16th overall), but it did exactly what it needed to do. They ran the ball 61% of the time, averaging over 154 yards per game, and led the league in time of possession, with an average drive of over three minutes on the season. When opponents stacked the box to stuff the run, Pittsburgh crossed them up with deep bombs to Plaxico Burress (Roethlisberger’s 8.89 yards per attempt are still his career high, and were second in the league to NFL MVP Peyton Manning). Were it not for some curiously astute play calling in the AFC title game, this team could very easily have won the Super Bowl.

Then the 2005 offseason happened. First, Burress left in free-agency – depriving the sophomore quarterback of his only legitimate deep threat. Then both Bettis and Staley went down with injuries, promoting the small, speed-back Willie Parker (an undrafted rookie free-agent in 2004) to starter as the season opened. Parker looked exciting occasionally in the preseason, but he certainly wasn’t a control-the-clock closer like Bettis or Staley. That is, an average-but-effective offense essentially lost all the things that had made it work -- and that helped the superstar defense do its thing. The D figured to be outstanding again, but the real question was whether the offense would help it out again or hold it back?

Then the preseason began. The Steelers went 3-1, but the first-team offense looked sluggish and out of sync. The team scored defensive and/or special teams touchdowns in every game, and the offense seemed smoother with backup Charlie Batch under center rather than the young franchise quarterback. Roethlisberger, for his part, was 16 of 36 (44%) for 88 yards in the whole preseason, amassing a rating of 51. Bill Cowher admitted by the third game that he was concerned, "we are not in sync on offense, and that is evident." Roethlisberger was much more sanguine, telling reporters after the fourth preseason game, "I've told you 100 times, I'm not concerned." His reasoning? You don’t install a game plan in the preseason; it’s not real football without scheme and game plan.

If you were inclined to worry (like Steeler Nation often does), this looked like cockiness of a kid who got too much early success and was bound to tumble. This defense is awesome, you might have heard, but we’re wasting it on this terrible offense… We never should have let Plex walk… We should have gotten a power back, since Staley keeps getting hurt and Bettis is old… Big Ben was a flash in the pan – he’s already having sophomore slump… We’re sunk…

Then the season opened.

In Week 1, Parker ran for 161 yards and Big Ben tossed a perfect game (158.3 rating), as the Steelers destroyed Tennessee 34-7. In fact, the team started out 7-2, with their only losses coming in overtime to Jacksonville (with Ben injured and Tommy Maddox in full meltdown at quarterback), and on a last-second field goal against New England (where time-keepers mistakenly gifted the Pats an extra (and decisive) 52 seconds). That is, despite a hopelessly inept preseason on offense, the Steelers opened the regular season like the championship contender they were. Once the offense prepared a coherent game plan, a squad that appeared clumsy and out of sync suddenly seemed to know what it was doing.

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What does this have to do with the 2015 Steelers?

This team feels, to me, like the inverse of the 2005 model; and Big Ben’s game plan theory may just be cause for cautious optimism in Steel Town. Consider:

2004: A surprise playoff team with an awesome Defense (1st) and a middling Offense (16th).
2014: A surprise playoff team with an awesome Offense (2nd) and a middling Defense (18th).

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Most of the components on the stronger side of the ball return, or appear ably replaced.

2004-05 Defense, still led by superstars Troy Polamalu, Joey Porter, and James Farrior, saw Willie Williams yield to Ike Taylor at corner; Casey Hampton return from a season-long injury; and oft-injured Kendrell Bell cut in favor of handing Larry Foote the starting job outright. Otherwise, everyone returned.

2014-15 Offense, still led by superstars Ben Roethlisberger and Antonio Brown, will see DeAngelo Williams, Markus Wheaton, and Cody Wallace/Doug Lagursky start for missing stars in week one, but each of them appear solid for the short term. Otherwise, everyone returns -- and those missing stars will trickle back in, one-by-one, over the course of the season.

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The weaker squad seems full of holes, and has filled them with journeymen, cast-offs, and athletic but unproven players.

2004-05: Offense featured journeyman Cedrick Wilson, unproven Willie Parker and Max Starks, and rookies Heath Miller and Nate Washington.

2014-15: Defense features journeymen Will Allen and Arthur Moats, castoffs Antwon Blake and Brandon Boykin, and unproven Ryan Shazier, Bud Dupree, and Jarvis Jones.

(*Bonus lesson: Some of these guys will surprise us like Parker or Miller, but even if they’re Cedrick Wilson (i.e. competent placeholders), that might be okay. They don’t all have to be stars.)

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The weaker squads aren’t hopeless in either case, but the (apparent) strength is in the foundational roles, while the playmakers look inconsistent and weak.

2004-05: The strength was in the offensive line and possession receiver Hines Ward; playmakers at WR were tough to find, Parker was untested, and (particularly in the preseason) Big Ben was hard to trust. It would have been easy to feel uneasy about this team.

2014-15: The strength is the ILB and defensive line, but roaming playmakers at OLB or in the secondary are untested or untrusted. It's pretty easy to be nervous about these guys too.

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Perhaps most importantly, the area of biggest concern in the preseason -- the players who most need to be sharp but seem clumsiest and most confused -- are the ones most affected by communication, game plan, and scheme.

2004-05: Young Big Ben, who was the lynch-pin in offensive production.
2014-15: The secondary, who need to be on the same page or risk giving up deep passes all day.

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For sure, there’s no one in the current Steeler’s secondary that’s the equivalent of Ben Roethlisberger, even when he was 23. But if Number 7 was right in 2005, and game plan really makes the difference between his 51 rating in the ‘05 preseason and the 98.6 he went on to record in the regular season, then perhaps there’s reason to not burn the season tickets after all.

Nothing is going to make the 2015 Steeler’s D a top-5 unit, but then again, the 2005 Steeler’s O wasn’t top-5 either (even with that killer opener against the Titans, they only finished 15th overall). What mattered was that, with that defense, they didn’t need to be. Hopeless as they appeared in the preseason, game-planning made them average; and a spectacular defense made them champions.

If the same can hold true in reverse -- if game-planning really can be the difference between a lousy 2015 defense and an average one -- then the Steelers' spectacular 2015 offense might just be enough to make this season something to watch. Fingers’ crossed…

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