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The Pittsburgh Steelers will be looking for their first home win in their third attempt on Sunday when they take on the Atlanta Falcons at Heinz Field. While neither team has impressed so far in 2018, the Steelers still find themselves as unconvincing 3-point favorites for the game at the time of writing, leaving the high scoring Falcons looking like good value to cover against the spread.
An opening line of 4-points has seen less movement than might have been expected at this stage, but it would not be a surprise to note the spread had dropped to under a field goal by kick off. An initial totals offering of 56-points has seen a bit more action, and 58-points is currently the standard position for most online providers.
It is a sign of quite how far the Steelers’ once proud defensive reputation has fallen that they are faced with a higher points total for this matchup than they have seen in recent memory. Dating back to 2003, only 6 games in NFL history have closed with an over/under of 57.5 or more at game time, according to BetLabSports, and none of them involved Pittsburgh.
An early moneyline price of +160 to -185 has barely moved with most sportsbooks, with -160 the best price listed for the Steelers as of Thursday night.
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According to Oddsshark.com, Pittsburgh is 1-5 against the spread in their last six games and 1-3 on the season. The total has gone over in five of the Steelers last six games and the under is 1-3 on the year so far. Worse still, Pittsburgh is 0-5 ATS in their last five games at home, losing four of their last five at Heinz Field straight up. Atlanta have not fared much better recently either, going 1-4 ATS in their last 5 games and 1-4 straight up.
With the Falcons struggling against both the run and the pass, the first touchdown could come from anyone for the Steelers. We will be looking for James Conner to get back on track with the opening score in Week 5 against a team that has given up the second highest number of rushing touchdowns so far in 2018. He should be available at a price of around 6/1 for first game touchdown and around 7/2 for first team touchdown.