While the Pittsburgh Steelers are favorites for arguably their toughest matchup of the year since Week 2, it would appear that much of the betting public has been backing the Carolina Panthers in the run up to the game, forcing a notable shift in the spread.
A opening line that was initially as high as 7-points with a handful of Las Vegas bookmakers and a consensus 5.5-points with the majority of online providers has now narrowed to a spread of 3.5-points with most sportsbooks in Nevada and 4-points with the internet bookmakers. An early totals position of 50-points has been replaced by 52-points as the more common offering, with 51.5-points the lowest total currently available. From a starting moneyline price of -225, the Steelers can now be backed as low as -191.
Given their recent records, a spread of 7-points was always too high for this game, but given the advantage teams playing at home generally seem to have on a short week, a spread of close to a field goal would seem to make Pittsburgh good value to cover.
According to Oddsshark.com, Pittsburgh is 5-1 against the spread in their last six games and 5-3 ATS overall on the season. The total has gone over in seven of the Steelers last ten games and the under is 3-5 so far in 2018. Pittsburgh is 5-0 ATS in their last five games versus Carolina and the total has gone over in four of the Steelers last five games against them.
We have been riding James Conner’s hot streak as first touchdown scorer since Week 5 and he has come through the us three times in the last four games. Consequently we will not be deserting him in Week 10. Clearly tired of giving away free money, most sportsbooks have the young running back priced at around 3/1 for the games first touchdown and around 13/8 for first team touchdown. Those looking for better value might be more interested in a saver on Vance McDonald at around 25/1 and 10/1 respectively.