:format(webp)/cdn.vox-cdn.com/uploads/chorus_image/image/60302807/136010274.jpg.0.jpg)
Pittsburgh Steelers fans love to cheer for underdog players — the comments section of BTSC is filled with optimistic assessments. This optimism is oddly geared towards 2018 drafted players who haven’t yet stepped foot on the field in favor of those who have already been tossed into trial by combat and thus have attracted the ire of fans. Chalk this up to human nature, a fervent fan base and indiscriminate hope — or maybe fans are seeing something in these players that 31 NFL GMs overlooked?
GM Kevin Colbert is entering his eighteenth season at the helm of the Steelers organization. During this span, he’s drafted 152 players. Like his peers in the NFL, no GM will hit a home run with every draft choice (not even every draft class), but there’s a good reason why most national sports outlets rank Colbert in the Top-5 of NFL GMs — his ability to draft and groom talent.
There’s a smattering of later-round success stories: Antonio Brown, Brett Keisel, Clark Haggans and William Gay — just to mention a few. But the number of flops dwarfs this success — and that’s to be expected. Most later-round draft picks never wind up having successful careers. A large percentage never sign a second NFL contract or even finish out their rookie deal.
Colbert has drafted 90 players during or after the fourth round since 2000 with varying degrees of success depending on fans’ perspectives. The chart below outlines simple and basic thresholds, but doesn’t focus on performance success. Hashing out the thresholds will happen in the comments section.
Clarifying any confusion with the table:
- A second contract must be one signed right after the first and can include a one-year deal.
- The starts are only with the Steelers — starts with other teams are not included.
- Thirty percent of possible starts are based on a 16-game season.
- Roles on special teams are not included, as special-team starts are not included in Pro Football Reference stats.
Untitled
| Year | # of picks | Over 5 starts | Players | 30% of possible starts | Players | 2nd Pitt contract | Players |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Year | # of picks | Over 5 starts | Players | 30% of possible starts | Players | 2nd Pitt contract | Players |
| 2000 | 5 | 1 | Clark Haggans | 1 | Haggans | 1 | Haggans |
| 2001 | 5 | 1 | Chukky Okobi | 0 | 1 | Okobi | |
| 2002 | 5 | 2 | Larry Foote, Brett Keisel | 2 | Foote, Keisel | 2 | Foote, Keisel |
| 2003 | 3 | 1 | Ike Taylor | 1 | Taylor | 1 | Tarylor |
| 2004 | 5 | 0 | 0 | 0 | |||
| 2005 | 5 | 1 | Chris Kemoeatu | 1 | Kemoeatu | 1 | Kemoeatu |
| 2006 | 7 | 1 | Willie Colon | 1 | Colon | 1 | Colon |
| 2007 | 5 | 1 | William Gay | 1 | Gay | 1 | Gay |
| 2008 | 4 | 1 | Ryan Mundy | 0 | 0 | ||
| 2009 | 5 | 1 | David Johnson | 1 | Johnson | 1 | Johnson |
| 2010 | 7 | 2 | Antonio Brown, Johathan Dwyer | 1 | Brown | 1 | Brown |
| 2011 | 4 | 1 | Cortez Allen | 0 | 1 | Allen | |
| 2012 | 5 | 2 | Kelvin Beachum | 1 | Beachum | 0 | |
| 2013 | 6 | 2 | Vince Williams, Landry Jones | 1 | Williams | 2 | Williams, Jones |
| 2014 | 6 | 1 | Martavis Bryant | 1 | Bryant | 1 | McCullers |
| 2015 | 5 | 2 | Jesse James, Anthony Chickillo | 1 | James | NA | |
| 2016 | 4 | 0 | 0 | NA | |||
| 2017 | 4 | 0 | 0 | NA | |||
| 2018 | 3 | NA | NA | NA | |||
| Total | 90 | 20 | 13 | 14 |
Less than a quarter of later-round Steelers’ draft picks will ever make five starts during their time with Pittsburgh, let alone having a minimal amount of starts during their rookie deals. A mere 6.4 percent ever ink a second deal, and only a handful of them find success during the second contract.
It’s understandable that fans are excited to see draft picks Joshua Frasier, Jaylen Samuels or Marcus Allen contribute in 2018, or future years, based upon their college tape and other hype surrounding them. But these players didn’t slide out of the early rounds due to medical or off-field concerns. They slid due to issues in their perceived ability to perform at the pro level. Could one of the three 2018 draft picks — or any of the five draft picks still on the roster from the 2016 and 2017 draft classes — turn into the next AB or Keisel?
The odds are stacked against them, but as any poker player knows, odds are meant to be beaten.