Projecting Terrell Edmunds’ 2019 statistics based on past Steelers’ safeties

The expectation doesn’t change regardless of pedigree. Whether a player is drafted in the first round or an undrafted free agent, any NFL player entering their second year has an expectation of noticeable improvement. From the physical demand of a long season to understanding the game at the NFL level and the speed in which it is played, there is much to learn in a player’s first offseason.

For the Steelers’ Terrell Edmunds, 2019 brings the same expectations of improvement as all of the other 2018 rookies. While many think Edmunds had a solid rookie season, others are very quickly to place him in the “bust” category if he doesn’t show vast improvement. Unlike most rookies, Edmunds had plenty of in-game experience last season as he started 15 games and logged the second most defensive snaps only behind Sean Davis.

But what will the 2019 season bring for Terrell Edmunds? What kind of jump could we expect? The best idea I had to project Edmunds jump from year one to year two was to look at two highly-drafted safeties who were full-time starters their second season: Sean Davis and Troy Polamalu. The statistics I’ve decided to outline are interceptions, passes defensed, forced fumbles, sacks, total tackles, and solo tackles.

Sean Davis

In 2016, Sean Davis started nine games as a rookie and logged 740 defensive snaps. In his second season, Davis started all 16 regular-season games and increased his defensive snaps to 948. With the exception of sacks, Davis increased in the other five statistical categories. Davis played 28.1% more stats from year one to year two, but saw a much higher percent increases in interceptions, passes defensed, and forced fumbles. In both categories of tackles, the percent increase was very similar to the increase in snaps. The exact statistics for each year and the change are listed below.

Troy Polamalu

Although he appeared in every game, Polamalu did not start at all his rookie season in 2003. By his second year, Polamalu started all 16 regular-season games. Unfortunately, I was unable to find snap counts before 2012, so the only gauge is the massive increase in games started. Just like Sean Davis, Polamalu’s sacks sightly dipped his second season. Other than having the same number of forced fumbles, Polamalu saw massive increases in the other statistical category.

Terrell Edmunds

When it comes to comparing his rookie statistics to Davis and Polamalu, Edmunds was very similar in interceptions, passes defensed, forced fumbles, and sacks. Edmunds did have a significant larger amount of tackles which can most likely be attributed to a larger number of games started and snaps played. Below is a list of Edmunds’ first year stats and my projection for his statistics for this coming season.

Reasoning

So why did I come up with these numbers? First off, these stats are assuming Edmunds starts all 16. When it came to tackles, both Davis and Polamalu had similar year-two totals so I had Edmunds numbers follow suit. Since neither Davis or Polamalu saw an increase in sacks, I kept Edmunds at the same total as 2018. With the other statistics, I started with a similar increase but adjusted some totals down due to the fact Edmunds will not have as much of an increase in playing time from year one to year two.

So the final statistical line I project for Terrell Edmunds in 2019 is two interceptions, seven passes defensed, one forced fumble, one sack, 92 total tackles, and 68 solo tackles.

So what do you think? Are these statistics a reasonable estimate? Or are they too high or too low based on your projections? Make sure you vote in the poll below and leave any explanations in the comments.