Contextualizing the Pickett Pick

2022 - Pick 20, Kenny Pickett

2021 - Pick 15, Mac Jones

2020 - Pick 26, Jordan Love (Developmental Prospect)

2019 - Pick 15, Dwayne Haskins ( Developmental Prospect)

2018 - Pick 32, Lamar Jackson (Developmental Prospect)

2016 - Pick 26, Paxton Lynch (Developmental Prospect)

2015 - Pick 22, Johnny Manziel (Developmental Prospect) - Pick 32 Teddy Bridgewater

2013 - Pick 16, EJ Manuel (Developmental Prospect)

2012 - Pick 22, Brandon Weeden (Question Marks Regarding Pro Transition)

2010 - Pick 25, Tim Tebow (Question Marks Regarding Pro Transition)

2009 - Pick 17, Josh Freeman (Developmental Pick)

2008 - Pick 18, Joe Flacco (Question Marks/Developmental Pick)

2007 - Pick 22, Brady Quinn

2005 - Pick 24, Aaron Rodgers??? - Pick 25, Jason Campbell (Mid Round Developmental Pick)

Kenny Pickett surprised a lot of people by falling out of the first half of the first round, but a lot of people weren't surprised due to question marks about his small hands and only one year of elite production after four years as a starter.

The most common pro comparisons people make for Kenny Pickett are Derek Carr and Andy Dalton, two guys who were drafted early in the 2nd round. I'm not going to argue with those comparisons, especially given how many people have suggested the Steelers could've gotten Pickett significantly later, but I think it's interesting to look at Pickett in comparison to similarly drafted QB's in the back half (or close to it) of the first round.

What jumps out when you look at this list, is that QB's drafted in the back of the first round are typically those guys who are considered to have franchise QB potential, but will require development to get there. The guys who Have All The Tools, and get fans excited with their workouts and highlights, but have a lot of skills to learn to be reliable as a starter in the NFL.

A related group of QB's are those who have had great college success, but come with a big ol' asterisk. Tim Tebow is the perfect example of a guy who was highly productive, has elite intangibles, but bad mechanics and played a very college style system. Joe Flacco, a guy from a pitifully small school, and Brandon Weeden who looked like maybe a productive of his college style system are other examples.

Some guys like Aaron Rodgers and Brady Quinn fell for reasons I don't really remember are just head scratchers, but I went back to him because I know people would bring him up, and it happened to be the first draft after we got Big Ben.

Out of this list, though, the guys who remind me most of Pickett are Mac Jones, Teddy Bridgewater, and Brady Quinn. Jones also came out without a lot of people believing in his high ceiling. Bridgewater was considered a smart, good leader, pro-ready with a high floor, but with unexciting physical gifts, including small hands and limited ability to drive the ball in wet, windy conditions. I couldn't find any good scouting reports on Brady Quinn still on the web, but I recall that he was considered a top 10 prospect, although some considered him to be a product of Charlie Weis' system and more of a game manager than a difference maker with his talent.

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