Who’s ready for a Week 10 Super Bowl XLV matchup between the Pittsburgh Steelers and Green Bay Packers? Hopefully, the Steelers are, looking to build on their 5-3 record and close the two-game gap the Baltimore Ravens hold for the lead in the AFC North. The Packers, meanwhile, enter this game at 3-5 with a 1-3 record on the road as they look to make the most of their first season in the post-Aaron Rodgers era. While neither team has landed among the most exciting offenses in the league, they’ve each had their bright spots — mostly on the defense.
Week 10 of the 2023 season marks the 36th meeting between these two historic franchises, with the Packers holding a 20-16 overall record over the Steelers. One of those 20 wins has come in the Mike Tomlin-Matt LaFleur era, as the Packers walked away with a 27-17 win in their last meeting back in 2021. It was a different time for both of these teams, who each still had a future Hall Of Fame quarterback under center between Ben Roethlisberger and Aaron Rodgers... but even so, all good things must come to an end. Now, they’ll see Kenny Pickett and Jordan Love go head-to-head, both hoped to be the future of their respective franchises at the position, though they each have plenty of questions left to answer before they’re handed the keys to the kingdom.
Though the 2023 season hasn’t yielded the success they may have hoped for out of the gate, but there is a reasonable explanation for it that goes far beyond the fact that Jordan Love might not be “the future” of the position. The Packers have the youngest team in the league according to Spotrac, with their average age at 25.19 compared to the league average of 26.4. The Steelers, for reference, are at an average age of 26.58. Though youth isn’t ever necessarily a bad thing, it does signal a greater problem — one of inexperience.
There isn’t a single roster in the league with less money invested in the wide receiver position in the 2023 season, due to pay out just $6.9 million to their entire receiving corps in the 2023 season. Their skill position player group, while anchored by veteran running back Aaron Jones, is supported by a quarterback in his first year starting, and his top five receiving options in terms of total targets (Romeo Doubs, Jayden Reed, Luke Musgrave, Dontayvion Wicks) each in their first or second seasons in the NFL. It’s not a great recipe for success right now, which could be a prime opportunity for the Pittsburgh Steelers to take advantage.
To date this season, Love ranks 21st among quarterbacks with 1,721 passing yards, averaging 6.6 yards per attempt, having thrown 12 touchdowns and 8 interceptions. Love’s top target this season has been second-year wide receiver Romeo Doubs, who’s totaled 30 receptions on 54 targets this season for 312 passing yards and five touchdowns. Rookie Jayden Reed leads the team with 333 receiving yards.
The Packers defense, in contrast, has a bit more promise (and experience), playing well overall thanks to a couple of key playmakers, including 2x Pro Bowl cornerback Jaire Alexander, EDGE Rashan Gary and LBs Quay Walker and De’Vondre Campbell. Though the Packeres just traded away CB Rasul Douglas to the Buffalo Bills, this has been one of the best overall units in coverage this year, allowing the seventh-fewest net yards per pass attempt and the fifth-fewest passing yards all season, having allowed just eight total passing touchdowns all season.
While the Steelers enter this matchup with more experience across the board, from coaching to the receiving room and beyond, they are outmatched by this Packers team in most categories, statistically. The homefield advantage could prove to be big for this team, hosting this very young (and inexperienced) unit in Week 10.
Steelers vs. Packers, head-to-head stats
|Yards per game||278.5||300|
|Yards per play||4.7||5|
DraftKings Sportsbook has the Steelers installed as 3-point home favorites heading into the weekend, with the point total installed at 39. Interestingly, even though the Packers have outmatched the Steelers in most statistical categories this season, the vast majority of point-spread bettors are backing Pittsburgh to cover in Week 10.
79% of the point spread bets and 76% of the total money wagered on the point spread for Steelers-Packers has been placed on Pittsburgh. The public is also backing the under on the point total, with 80% of the bets and 73% of the total money wagered on the point total coming in on the under.