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Bills vs. Jets: Monday Night Football picks, odds, more for Week 1

Aaron Rodgers and the Jets take on Josh Allen and the Bills in the Week 1 finale.

Aaron Rodgers #8 of the New York Jets warms up prior to the game against the New York Giants at MetLife Stadium on August 26, 2023 in East Rutherford, New Jersey. Photo by Mike Stobe/Getty Images

Monday Night Football is back, and it should be a great Week 1 finale: a divisional matchup between two of the NFL’s best teams — the Buffalo Bills (-2) and the up-and-coming New York Jets (+2).

The Bills return one of the NFL’s top quarterback-wide receiver combinations in Josh Allen and Stefon Diggs, but the team is coming off yet another strong regular season that ended with postseason heartbreak. Buffalo hopes to finally get over that hump this season, but it’ll be no easy task in a strong AFC. To make matters worse, veteran pass-rusher Von Miller will be starting the season on the PUP list, which is quite the blow to the Bills’ defense.

The big story with the Jets, of course, is their offseason addition of former Packers quarterback Aaron Rodgers. Rodgers, when paired with electric second-year wideout Garrett Wilson and the running back duo of Breece Hall and the newly-signed Dalvin Cook, is expected by Jets fans to revitalize what has long been a stagnant New York offense.

On the other side of the ball, the Jets boast a strong defensive front and a secondary led by all-world corner Ahmad “Sauce” Gardner. There’s indisputable talent on the team — but the question remains if the organization and head coach Robert Saleh can capitalize on it to make the Jets relevant once again.

How to watch Bills vs. Jets

Date: Monday, September 11

Kickoff time: 8:15 p.m. ET

Where: MetLife Stadium, East Rutherford, New Jersey

TV channel: ESPN/ABC

Live stream: ESPN+, NFL+ (mobile devices only)

Odds and predictions for Bills vs. Jets, via DraftKings Sportsbook

Point spread: Bills -2
O/U: 45.5
Moneyline: Bills -125, Jets +110

Pick against the spread

Week 1 games are always tough to pick, especially when a team with as many unknowns as the Jets are involved. However, those unknowns could give the Bills an advantage in Week 1. Josh Allen has a history of success passing to his top weapons Stefon Diggs, Gabe Davis, and Dawson Knox, now with rookie TE Dalton Kincaid in the Mix. Although the Jets have a lot of talent themselves, they also haven’t had as much time to build chemistry. Aaron Rodgers, Dalvin Cook, Mecole Hardman, and Allen Lazard are all new to the team and its system, while Breece Hall is coming off of what was a season-ending injury last year.

Both teams have loads of talent and it’s a close matchup on paper — and the Jets defense will ensure that — but the Bills seem to have the edge in Week 1. The Jets are an exciting team to watch this year, but let’s not forget that Buffalo has consistently been one of the best teams in the NFL over the past few seasons. I think they emerge with a victory and cover the spread here in Week 1.

The pick: Bills -2

Bills vs. Jets point total

Week 1 has a tendency to result in ugly football, and despite the stars on the Bills and Jets’ offenses, both defenses have the talent to dominate as well. We’ve seen that in the past, as six of the last eight Jets/Bills matchups have resulted in under 40 points scored, including both of last year’s games between the two teams. Throw in that this is a divisional rivalry, meaning even more ugly football, and it looks like there’s a good chance that Monday night could be a low-scoring affair.

The pick: Under 45.5

BTSC staff picks for Bills vs. Jets

Odds/lines subject to change. T&Cs apply. See for details.