The Pittsburgh Steelers are headed into big, bad Buffalo for a Wild Card matchup against the Bills, set to kick off Sunday, January 14 at 1 p.m. ET.
Looking to get some skin in the game? Here are three Steelers-Bills player props to consider for the Wild Card round, with odds courtesy of DraftKings Sportsbook.
Najee Harris OVER 60.5 rushing yards (-115)
Steelers running back Najee Harris has taken over Pittsburgh’s backfield in recent weeks, even despite the presence of second-year UDFA Jaylen Warren, who’s topped the efficiency charts among running backs this season. In fact, since quarterback Madon Rudolph took over under center in Week 16, Harris has averaged a league-high 24 rush attempts per game, averaging 104 rushing yards per game and totaling four total touchdowns in that span.
Though the Steelers are projected to be down in this matchup as nine-point road underdogs, the weather for this game might just be the ultimate decider on which team scores points and how. Projected for wind gusts of 50+ miles per hour paired with plenty of snow and frigid temps, this is likely to be a matchup where even the best of passers lean in favor of the run.
The Bills have allowed a league-high 15.4% explosive run rate (15+ yards) and 3.3 yards after contact per rush attempt this season while tied for the fifth-highest yards per carry average (4.6). That, paired with the massive volume Harris is likely to see in the Wild Card makes his 60.5-yard rushing total an easy smash for the over.
Jaylen Warren OVER 3.5 receptions (+114)
As noted above, the passing game might not be the most productive aspect of the offense on either the Bills or the Steelers in the Wild Card Round. However, Jaylen Warren could carve out a special role of his own in this game as a receiver in the screen game to capitalize on short passing down situations, which makes the OVER on his 3.5 receptions at plus odds worth a solid look.
Conceptually, Warren’s involvement in the receiving game would make sense, having seen 37.5% of his overall targets on such plays, tied for the fourth-most targets on screen plays in the league throughout the regular season. If the Steelers are unable to air it out, it seems reasonable that they would look back to involvement in the screen game with Warren in particular. Warren has had four or more receptions in each of the past five games, having seemingly carved out as the receiving running back in this offense, and given the circumstances with the weather, they may need to lean on him now more than ever in a must-win playoff game.
Josh Allen anytime TD (+110)
This may be the lowest projected point total of the Wild Card Round at 34.5, but you can bet your butt that if there’s scoring in any way, shape or form in this game, it’s most likely going to come on the ground. For the Buffalo Bills specifically, that could mean even more involvement than usual from quarterback Josh Allen as a rusher.
Allen ranks fifth in the league in overall rush attempts among quarterbacks, but more importantly, he ranks second In red zone rush attempts and rush attempts inside the five. With those, Allen is tied with Jalen Hurts to lead all quarterbacks with 15 rushing touchdowns, having scored at least one rushing touchdown in all but five games this season.
Notably, the Steelers are the only team in the league that hasn’t allowed a rushing touchdown to a quarterback so far this season... but this is no ordinary game, with no ordinary weather. The Bills will need to rely on their most productive rushing option to carry them through — who, of course, is none other than quarterback Josh Allen