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NFL Compensatory Pick projections with the Steelers getting zero additional picks could be wrong

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Early projections suggest the Steelers won’t be getting an NFL Draft compensatory pick, but those projections may be wrong.

NFL: AFC Divisional Playoff-Jacksonville at Pittsburgh Steelers Philip G. Pavely-USA TODAY Sports

The Pittsburgh Steelers were surprisingly active in free agency this past season, and when teams go out and pick up players, and don’t lose as many, the NFL doesn’t grant them a compensatory selection in the upcoming NFL Draft.

The Steelers typically get at least one compensatory pick, but, according to OverTheCap.com, the early projections show the Steelers getting zero compensatory picks.

But that could be wrong.

Thanks to new writer Roy Countryman, he outlined in his offseason primer exactly why the Steelers could get an additional pick, one they could use, for the losses of Lawrence Timmons and Markus Wheaton.

Take a look at his work below...

According to the tremendous work over at OvertheCap, we’re not expecting to be awarded a compensatory pick, but I disagree with that assessment. Using some of their theories for the way picks are awarded, as well as my detailed knowledge of the CBA, I believe Pittsburgh will be awarded a fifth-round pick.

Here’s why:

My adjusted scale of salaries compared to rounds awarded

AAV-Annual Average Value of Contract

3rd Round-Any contract that holds an AAV of $10 million or more

4th Round-$7--$9.9 million AAV

5th Round-$5--$6.9 million AAV

6th Round-$2.5m--$4.9m AAV

7th Round-$1.2m--$2.4m AAV

  • 7th Round lowest value could have a lower floor value.

With this chart, in conjunction with the OvertheCap Cancellation Chart, which he mistakenly accounts for J.J. Wilcox as a FA addition even though he was traded to the Steelers, shows that this is an account of total Free Agency Cancellation of players, not a strict one-for-one cancellation. Also factored in is playing time. We will examine only qualified FA Losses and Gains.

FA Lost

Lawrence Timmons - MIA - LB

2yr/$12m=$6m AAV

Played 78% of MIA Snaps on Defense.

5th Round Value

Markus Wheaton - CHI - WR

2yr/$11m=$5.5m AAV

Played 19% of CHI Snaps on Offense.

5th-round value based on contract, could be sixth round due to lack of playing time.

FA Gain

Tyson Alualu - JAX - DL

2yr/$6m=$3m AAV

Played 44% of PIT Snaps on Defense.

6th Round Value

Coty Sensabaugh - NYG - CB

2yr/$2.6m=$1.3m AAV

Played 23% of PIT Snaps on Defense.

7th Round Value

In this cancellation chart, the Contract’s signed by Alualu and Sensabaugh cancel out the contract of Wheaton, which in turn leaves the contract of Timmons as the reason why the Steelers could be awarded a fifth-round compensatory pick.