/cdn.vox-cdn.com/uploads/chorus_image/image/46955008/GettyImages-84582054.0.jpg)
A lot of sports fans aren't fond of sabermetrics when it comes to evaluating and analyzing players and teams. However, these new age statistics often offer keen insights into how something such as an NFL season will play out.
A few years ago, I used the sports statistic--synchronicity (you may also know it as fate, karma, deja vu, etc.)--to explain why I thought the 2011 season would unfold just like the 2005 campaign, and the Steelers would capture their seventh Super Bowl title. But my analysis was hogwash, as I didn't even know about sabermetrics back then and was just going on frivolous data. However, thanks to the folks over at Bucsdugout a few years ago, I was educated on these new stats (as those people are quick to point out, when a player is 50 percent likely to do something, you can take it to the bank), and now I'm well-versed in things such as WAR and regression to the mean.
Even though I am more aware of your traditional sabermetrics stats here in 2015, my specialty remains synchronicity, and when analyzing the 2008 and 2015 data, there is no question in my mind that the 2015 Pittsburgh Steelers will capture Super Bowl 50 and ascend to Seventh Heaven.
If you'll join me, I will break down my reasoning step-by-step.
Super Bowl L (50) will be played in the San Francisco Bay Area
Super Bowl 50 will be held at Levi's Stadium on February 7, 2016, in the San Francisco Bay Area. Seven seasons ago, on February 1, 2009, Super Bowl XLIII between the Steelers and Cardinals was held at Raymond James Stadium in Tampa, Florida. Just like San Francisco, Tampa is located near a bay. Now, I'll grant you, this would be faulty data if that's all I had to go on. But buckle up, because I'm just getting started.
Peyton Manning loses in the divisional round of the previous season's playoffs
On January 13, 2008, the Colts, led by all-world quarterback Peyton Manning, lost at home to the Chargers (or Bolts) in the divisional round of the 2007 NFL playoffs, 28-24, thus preventing a match-up between Manning and Tom Brady in the AFC Championship game.
On January 11, 2015, the Broncos, led by all-world quarterback Peyton Manning, lost at home to his old team, the Colts, (see what I did there?) in the divisional round of the 2014 NFL playoffs, 24-13, thus preventing a match-up between Manning and Tom Brady in the AFC Championship game.
Steelers lose their star running back near the end of the season and go on to lose at home in the wild card round of the previous season's playoffs
In Week 16 of the 2007 season, Willie Parker, the NFL's leading rusher at that point, broke his leg in a victory over the Rams and was lost for the postseason. Speaking of the postseason. On January 5, 2008, the Steelers, sans Parker, lost to the Jaguars at Heinz Field, 31-29, in the wild card round.
In Week 17 of the 2014 season, Le'Veon Bell, the NFL's second leading rusher, hyper-extended his knee in a victory over the Bengals and was ultimately lost for the playoffs. On January 3, 2015, Pittsburgh, sans Bell, fell to the Ravens (a bunch of jags) at Heinz Field, 30-17, in the wild card round.
Spygate, Deflategate, and Arizona hosts that year's Super Bowl
The 2007 New England Patriots were shrouded in controversy, despite winning all 18 of their games leading up to Super Bowl XLII, played at University of Phoenix Stadium, in Glendale, Arizona, on February 3, 2008. The reason for the controversy was the Spygate scandal that rocked the NFL that season and ultimately led to sanctions being imposed on the Patriots organization. However, after steamrolling the entire NFL field that season, if New England would have captured its fourth Super Bowl title (and first without the aid of video spying), it may have been the ultimate validation. Unfortunately for the Patriots, their hopes were deflated following a 17-14 victory by the underdog Giants, and 19-0 gave way to 18 and no!
The 2014 New England Patriots weren't shrouded in anything but the usual hate that 98 percent of the country seems to have for them. But following a 45-7 blow-out victory over the Colts in the AFC Championship game on January 18, 2015, the controversy resumed. Instead of a great Super Bowl XLIX match-up between New England and the defending champion Seahawks at University of Phoenix Stadium, in Glendale, Arizona, on February 1, 2015, the only thing people were talking about in the lead-up to the clash was yet another cheating scandal after it was discovered that some footballs in the conference title game were deflated below the regulation PSI levels, and that Brady, himself, may have orchestrated these actions. However, if New England could capture its fourth Super Bowl title (while using properly inflated game balls), ultimate validation would be at hand.
Turns out, the Patriots did capture their fourth Super Bowl title with a 28-24 victory, but as for that validation? Yeah right. Since Super Bowl XLIX, people have talked about Deflategate so much, it's hard to remember that the Patriots are the defending champions of anything other than letting air out of stuff. And even when they are recognized as champions, an unflattering name such as "Cheatriots" usually accompanies it.
It's not exactly "18 and no!," but it's pretty close.
Steelers miss-out on playing Tom Brady
I was at a sports bar in Pittsburgh's Strip District during Week 1 of the 2008 NFL season, when news broke that Tom Brady had suffered a major knee injury and would be lost for the year. Near the end of the 2008 campaign, the Steelers traveled to New England and overwhelmed Brady's backup, Matt Cassel, in a 33-10 victory. The absence of Brady seemed to be just enough to prevent the Patriots, despite their 11-5 record, from making the playoffs and possibly getting in Pittsburgh's way of claiming a sixth Super Bowl title.
I was on the Internet in my apartment this year when it was announced that Brady would be suspended for the first four games of the 2015 season for his likely role in Deflategate. Pittsburgh will play the Patriots in Week 1, and given that backup Jimmy Garoppolo is a lot closer to being Matt Cassel than he is to being Tom Brady, it may be just enough to prevent New England from getting in the Steelers way of claiming a seventh Super Bowl title.
Really tough schedule
On their way to ultimately winning Super Bowl XLIII, the 2008 Steelers had to navigate through one of the toughest schedules in NFL history. Remarkably, Pittsburgh won 12 games and claimed an AFC North crown and a number two seed.
The 2015 Steelers don't have the toughest schedule in recent memory, but, at least on paper, it's shaping up to be the toughest in the NFL, as they face 11 teams who finished with winning records a year ago and nine who made the playoffs.
It's anyone's guess as to how well Pittsburgh will navigate this tough schedule, but if I had to predict, I'd say it will be to the tune of a 12-4 finish and a number two seed in the playoffs.
The 2008 historic defense and the (hopefully) 2015 historic offense
The Steelers had one of the best defenses in NFL history seven years ago, finishing first in several key categories.
While it's certainly foolish to assume the Steelers offense will be historic in 2015, coming off a 2014 season in-which Ben Roethlisberger passed for 4,952 yards and was assisted by Bell, Antonio Brown and one heck of an offensive line, it sure is trending that way. Much like that dominant '08 defense anchored by James Harrison and Troy Polamalu, the 2015 offense just might be good enough to carry the entire team all the way to the San Francisco Bay Area next February.
The 2015 secondary starring as the 2008 offensive line
Despite having some superior weapons in 2008, such as Roethisberger, Hines Ward, Santonio Holmes and Heath Miller, the Steelers offense struggled mightily behind a line that, let's face it, was awful.
The 2015 Steelers defense might actually have a decent and formidable front-seven, led by Cameron Heyward, Stephon Tuitt, Lawrence Timmons and even Ryan Shazier. However, the 2014 struggles might continue on in 2015, as the front-seven will be backed up by a secondary that, let's face it, should be fairly awful.
It's hard not to see the synchronicity there.
William Gay will star as Max Starks; Shamarko Thomas will play the role of Chris Kemoeatu; Brandon Boykin will be Willie Colon (people are already marking-out over every little thing Boykin does); Mike Mitchell, a free-agent pick-up, will star as Justin Hartwig and seems like the kind of guy who will send me hate email in seven years (whoops, I mean, that wasn't Hartwig, that was Dermontti Dawson--yeah, that's the ticket); and Cortez Allen will be Limas Sweed.
Daniel Sepulveda, Shaun Suisham and torn ACLs
In the summer of 2008, Steelers punter Daniel Sepulveda was diagnosed with a torn ACL and was lost for the entire season. In Sepulveda's absence, the Steelers signed Paul Ernster and then Mitch Berger and then Paul Ernster and then Mitch Berger, as the two alternated between sitting at home and sucking throughout the year. Speaking of Berger, my ex-girlfriend even knew he was an awful punter, and she once thought the Pirates' Pedro Alvarez hit an inside the park home run because the ball bounced off the foul pole and landed on the outfield grass at PNC Park.
This past Sunday, in the Steelers preseason opener against the Vikings in the annual Hall of Fame Game, kicker Shaun Suisham was lost for the season after tearing his ACL during the second half kickoff. Like Sepulveda, Suisham doesn't mind a little contact, and this unfortunately cost him. With Suisham gone, Pittsburgh signed veteran kicker Garrett Hartley on Tuesday, and (as of right now), he'll be handling field goals and extra points in 2015. Much like Ernster in 2007, Hartley had a brief stint with the Browns in 2014; and, just like Ernster in 2008, he was quickly signed by Pittsburgh in training camp (man, that's freakin' spooky).
Anyway, Hartley has an 81.7 career percentage, which isn't good by today's standards, so it wouldn't surprise me to see him (and whoever he trades employment with throughout the year) scuffling on field goals and, heaven help us, the extended extra points in 2015. Seriously, can't you just picture a 21 of 38 season for the Steelers place kickers, complete with fan anxiety whenever one of them lines up for an attempt? Heck, I wouldn't be surprised if Hartley (or, more appropriately, the Berger to his Ernster) almost whiffs on a field goal, like Berger did on a punt against the Ravens in the 2008 AFC title game.
After studying all this synchronicity data, it is my conclusion as an expert in sabermetrics that the 2015 Pittsburgh Steelers can be nothing but Super Bowl champions this season.
Lastly, I won't speculate on who the Steelers will defeat for their seventh Lombardi, but I will say that Bruce Arians is the Cardinals head coach in 2015--just like Ken Whisenhunt was in 2008.